An analysis of indirect mortality estimation

Abstract In this paper the robustness of Brass's child-survivorship indirect mortality estimation technique is investigated. An analytical method is developed for studying the error or bias caused in indirect mortality estimates by poor data, badly chosen model functions, and specific demographic assumptions that are often violated in practice. The resulting analytical expressions give insight into the rationale of indirect methods, the conditions under which they are robust, and the magnitude of errors that occur when specific assumptions are violated.     

The use of traditional and modern methods of fertility control in Kinshasa, Zaire

Abstract The practice of post-partum abstinence has been a long-standing tradition in many societies of tropical Africa, yet recent research suggests an erosion of the taboo on post-partum sexual relations as a means of fertility control. The current study among women in the lower income groups in Kinshasa, Zaire, provides evidence of this. There is strong motivation toward child-spacing, as shown by 80 per cent of the women who reported to be currently practising some means of fertility control: 73 per cent with traditional methods, only 7 per cent with modern contraceptives. There appears to be some carry-over of traditional practice, in that abstinence is related to the age and nursing status of the last born child. However, the most widely practised method is withdrawal. This suggests a desire on the part of this population for alternatives to abstinence, an issue with important implications for future family planning programs in Zaire.     

A time series analysis of Swedish illegitimacy rates, 1911-1974

Using a sociodemographic model of the determinants of illegitimacy rates, a multivariate regression analysis of annual change in age-specific Swedish illegitimacy rates is applied to the 1911-74 period. The proxy measure of change in sexual activity was significant for all age groups. Legitimation rates for out-of-wedlock conceived births were significant for all ages except teenagers, and the final predictor, women's status, was significant for all ages except women 35-44. Explained variance for annual change was highest among ages 20-24 (66%), 25-29 (66%), and 30-34 (63%) and lower among teens (34%) and women 35-44 (47%). These results support earlier research that used a sociodemographic model to explain post-World War II change in cross-national illegitimacy rates among 23 developed countries.     

A survey of work done by the China family planning association

The China Family Planning Association was set up in May 1980 as a nongovernmental organization under the leadership of the Communist Party of China. Funds come from the government, international organizations, and individual or community donations. 13 branches have been established so far. The Association has contributed to publicity, education, and research: members have given lectures on family planning, genetics, and population theory, and have helped develop contraceptives. The lectures on population problems have been published. In addition, the Association's periodical "Ren Sheng" is published bimonthly, and has a circulation of 125,000. Meeting have been convened for the exchange of information and experience among family planning workers. The Association organized tripartite seminars with IPPF and JOICFP in June and October, 1983. Under the auspices of the Association, 8 trainees have been sent to the David Owen Center in the United Kingdom for a Year's study, and 1 trainee was sent to the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. The Association was accepted as a full member of the IPPF at the conference held in Nairobi, Kenya, in November, 1983.     

International and internal migration decision making: a value-expectancy based analytical framework of intentions to move from a rural Philippine province

"The study compares determinants of internal and international migration intentions, drawing upon interview data from a sample of adults in Ilocos Norte, a largely rural province in the Philippines. A regression model is applied to test the relative determinants of intentions to migrate to Manila and to Hawaii. The study is based on a value-expectancy model of migration decision making. The results document the importance of subjective expectations related to the attainment of different values and goals in Manila and Hawaii."     

Aspects of occupational mobility and attainment among immigrants in Australia

The occupational distributions of the native-born and foreign-born in the Australian labor market differ greatly. The disparity between the occupational distributions is greatest among the middle age-bracket, and among immigrants from Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean region. Analysis of occupational attainment using unit record data from the 1981 Census shows that as duration of residence in Australia lengthens, the occupational distribution of the overseas-born converges toward that of the Australian-born. Moreover, birthplace groups differ in the degree of upward mobility associated with length of residence in Australia: immigrants from non-English-speaking countries tend to make greater occupational advances than their counterpart from English-speaking countries. This suggests a higher degree of international transferability of human capital skills among immigrants from English-speaking countries. The analysis also highlights the concentration of immigrants from non-English speaking countries in low-ranked occupations, and the relatively minor influence of education on the occupational attainment of immigrants from these birth place regions.     

USING DUAL FRAME DESIGNS TO REDUCE NONRESPONSE IN TELEPHONE SURVEYS

This article reports on the results of a series of experimentsdesigned to improve response rates for telephone surveys. Inthree surveys telephone households were selected using bothstandard random digit dialing (RDD) techniques and lists oftelephone numbers purchased from a commercial firm. In the RDDportions of the samples "cold contact" interviewing methodswere used; in the list frame portions advance letters were mailed,and the listed household name was used in the introduction.Experiments were designed to test the effects on response ratesof the advance letters and use of the listed household nameas a means of establishing rapport. The advance letters increasedresponse rates, but no difference could be attributed to theuse of names. The mixture of RDD and list sampling techniquesis also used to evaluate the effects of relative response rateson substantive findings. The cost consequences of these dualframe designs are assessed along a number of dimensions, andthe cost and error components of these designs are discussed.     

Woman cadres are women's friends

The All-China Women's Federation (WF) is a non-governmental organization of women and the highest leading body of the Women's Federations at all levels of the country. The WFS spare no efforts to do women good turns, work for their well-being and serve them wholeheartedly. The WFs are actively organizing women to learn to read and write and to acquire skills. The WFs play a role in protecting and education women, and in struggling for the safeguard of the legitimate rights of women and children. The WFs at all levels have been showing great concern for family planning. Finally, the WFs devote much attention to the training of women cadres, and to the improvement of their cultural level and working ability.     

Speech at the UN International Conference on Population,Mexico City,August, 1984

In seeking a solution to its population problem, China, as a developing socialist country, has been making unremitting efforts to develop economy while controlling the rapid growth. The objective is to control rapid population growth so that population growth may be in keeping with socioeconomic development and commensurate with utilization of natural resources and environmental protection. In the past decade, and particularly since 1979, China has made much progress in developing economy and gained remarkable successes in controlling population growth. The natural population growth rate dropped to 1.15% in 1983, from 2.089% in 1973. Living standards have improved with a gradual annual increase of per capita income. All this proves that the policy of promoting family planning to control population growth along with planned economic development is correct. In China family planning is a basic state policy. The government has advocated the practice of "1 couple, 1 child" since 1979. This does not mean that 1 couple could have 1 child only in every case. The government provides guidance for the implementation of family planning programs in the light of specific conditions such as economic developments, cultural background, population structure, and the wishes of the people in different localities. The requirements are more flexible in rural than in urban areas and more so among the people of national minorities than among the people of the Han Nationality. In rural areas, couples who have actual difficulties and want to have 2 children may have a 2nd birth with planned spacing. In carrying out its family planning program, China has consistently adhered to the principle of integrating state guidance with the masses' voluntariness. The government has always emphasized the importance of encouraging the people's own initiatives, through publicity and education, which is the key link in implementing the family planning program.