Forecasting Performance of an Open Economy DSGE Model

This paper analyzes the forecasting performance of an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, estimated with Bayesian methods, for the Euro area during 1994Q1–2002Q4. We compare the DSGE model and a few variants of this model to various reduced-form forecasting models such as vector autoregressions (VARs) and vector error correction models (VECM), estimated both by maximum likelihood and two different Bayesian approaches, and traditional benchmark models, e.g., the random walk. The accuracy of point forecasts, interval forecasts and the predictive distribution as a whole are assessed in an out-of-sample rolling event evaluation using several univariate and multivariate measures. The results show that the open economy DSGE model compares well with more empirical models and thus that the tension between rigor and fit in older generations of DSGE models is no longer present. We also critically examine the role of Bayesian model probabilities and other frequently used low-dimensional summaries, e.g., the log determinant statistic, as measures of overall forecasting performance.     

一个新的考虑非期望产出的非径向-双目标DEA模型

如何实现对环境效率更准确的定量评价,是国际上从事DEA研究的学者们当前关注的问题之一。在传统DEA效率模型的基础上,综合考虑评价过程中期望产出与非期望产出之间的差异以及实际生产过程中人们追求期望产出最大化和非期望产出最小化的双重目标,构建非期望产出的非径向-双目标DEA环境效率评价模型,通过线性加权和法转化为一个求最大值的单目标线性规划问题。研究结果表明,这种新模型不仅可以分析DEA有效性与Pa-reto最优之间的关系,还利用决策单元的投影获得投入和产出的可调整量,从而提高考虑非期望产出的环境效率评价的精度。实证分析结果与现实情况的高度吻合,说明这种新的非径向-双目标DEA环境效率模型是有效的。     

Merkmale und Fragen einer Governance-Reform am Beispiel des österreichischen Schulwesens

Since the 1990s German speaking countries go through an increasing debate on modernising education systems. Based on an analysis of developments in Austria, but as a hypothesis for other German speaking school systems, the paper aims to identify some cornerstones of this discourse. It argues that a central element is the question how further developments of an education system may be productively steered and that the transformations in the idea of system steering may be conceptualized by an analytic concept of ‘governance’.     

Dimensional Latent Structure of Relationship Quality: Results of Three Representative Population Samples

A fundamental question facing every latent construct (e.g., relationship quality) is whether the construct is categorical or dimensional in nature. The authors analyzed the latent status of relationship quality in 3 large general German population samples using the Partnership Questionnaire (PFB), the Quality of Relationship Inventory, and the short form of the PFB (PFB‐K; N₁ = 1,330, N₂ = 1,494, N₃ = 1,390). They applied 3 widely used taxometric methods: (a) MAXEIG, (b) MAMBAC, and (c) L‐Mode. Simulation data were created to evaluate the comparison curve fit index values, which were below 0.5 across the 3 German population samples, supporting a dimensional solution. Hence, in the current study the latent structure of relationship quality encompassed differences in degree rather than kind. Implications of the dimensional latent status of relationship quality, as well as causes of the discrepant findings with previous taxometric studies, are discussed.     

A Critical Reflection on the Experimental Method for Planning Research: Testing the Added Value of PSS in a Controlled Environment

For planning research to successfully generate usable mechanisms for planning practitioners more hypothesis-testing research designs are needed. Currently, the academic field seems more geared toward generating hypotheses, either by observing practice or from theoretical studies. This approach is especially common in research that generates knowledge of planning. In this paper, I map several relevant research designs that allow for such hypothesis testing and discuss their usability in planning research. Then, I particularly focus on the experimental method as a promising design for generating contextualized mechanisms for planning practice. I describe and analyze a study that aimed to develop mechanisms about the added value of knowledge technologies for the quality of planning. Two consecutive experiments are described in detail, after which the usability of the experimental method for planning research is discussed. Reflecting on these experiments indicate that the main strength of this research design is that it allows to create ideal circumstances for falsification (which is virtually impossible in planning practices. The main weakness is the ecological validity of findings, especially when the research is executed with students.     

Managing competence acquisition and financial performance: An empirical study of how small firms use competence acquisition strategies

Past research has neglected how small firms manage competence acquisition. Based on transaction cost literature, this article identifies competence acquisition management strategies and their implications for performance. We explore this issue using survey data from 842 small, knowledge-intensive firms. The results outline four aspects of competence acquisition management: (1) competence absorbers, (2) social acquirers, (3) market acquirers, and (4) nonacquirers. Furthermore, we hypothesized and found that market acquirers score higher in terms of financial performance than firms following the other strategies. The market acquirer strategy proved particularly effective under conditions of high dynamism.     

Improper use of the ordinary least squares estimator in the switching regression model

The paper considers the consequences of incorrectly using the ordinary least squares estimator, when the true but unknown model is a switching regression. Bias and mean square error express ons are given for slope and residual variance estimators. Except for in very specialized cases the estimators are biased. A numerical exarnple illustrates some of the issues raised and provides a conpelison between the ordinary least squares and maximum likelihood estimators.