Cross-Validated Assessments of Test Scoring Models

On a multiple choice test in which each item has r alternative options, a given number c of which are correct, various scoring models have been proposed. In one case the test-taker is allowed to choose any size solution subset and he/she is graded according to whether the subset is small and according to how many correct answers the subset contains. In a second case the test-taker is allowed to select only solution subsets of a prespecified maximum size and is graded as above. The first case is analogous to the situation where the test-taker is given a set of r options with each question; each question calls for a solution which consists of selecting that subset of the r responses which he/she believes to be correct. In the second case, when the prespecified solution subset is restricted to be of size at most one, the resulting scoring model corresponds to the usual model, referred to below as standard. The number c of correct options per item is usually known to the test-taker in this case.

Scoring models are evaluated according to how well they correctly identify the total scores of the individuals in the class of test-takers. Loss functions are constructed which penalize scoring models resulting in student scores which are not associated with the students true (or average) total score on the exam. Scoring models are compared on the basis of cross-validated assessments of the loss incurred by using each of the given models. It is shown that in many cases the assessment of the loss for scoring models which allow students the opportunity to choose more than one option for each question are smaller than the assessment of the loss for the standard scoring model.     

Rethinking certification theory and the educational development of the United States and Germany

This essay places work certification at the center of all modern educational regimes. I sketch the growth of the education, training, and certification systems of the United States and Germany in new ways, highlighting the role of their highly divergent certification regimes in shaping them. Whereas Germany's education and training system, anchored in the economy through employers’ associations and unions, accords well with human capital models, American practice, governed primarily by academic interests divorced from the economy, fits much better with credentialist theory. I consider how the absence of meaningful work certification at the secondary level in the US negatively affects educational justice and has encouraged the creation of a costly, inegalitarian system of higher education. Finally, I conclude with an assessment of human capital, signaling, control, and credentialist theories of certification, one that finds them all to some degree wanting.     

Will They Ever Converge? Earnings of Immigrant and Canadian-born Workers over the Last Two Decades1

Using Census data covering the 1980–2000 period, this article examines what outcomes would be necessary for today's recent immigrant cohorts to achieve earnings parity with Canadian‐born workers. Our results show that today's recent immigrants would have to experience a drastic steepening of their relative age‐earnings profile in the near future for their earnings to converge with their Canadian‐born counterparts. The reason is simple: the greater relative earnings growth experienced by recent immigrant cohorts has only partially offset the drastic deterioration in their relative earnings at entry.     

IMPROVING POPULATION-SPECIFIC ALLELE FREQUENCY ESTIMATES BY ADAPTING SUPPLEMENTAL DATA: AN EMPIRICAL BAYES APPROACH

Estimation of the allele frequency at genetic markers is a key ingredient in biological and biomedical research, such as studies of human genetic variation or of the genetic etiology of heritable traits. As genetic data becomes increasingly available, investigators face a dilemma: when should data from other studies and population subgroups be pooled with the primary data? Pooling additional samples will generally reduce the variance of the frequency estimates; however, used inappropriately, pooled estimates can be severely biased due to population stratification. Because of this potential bias, most investigators avoid pooling, even for samples with the same ethnic background and residing on the same continent. Here, we propose an empirical Bayes approach for estimating allele frequencies of single nucleotide polymorphisms. This procedure adaptively incorporates genotypes from related samples, so that more similar samples have a greater influence on the estimates. In every example we have considered, our estimator achieves a mean squared error (MSE) that is smaller than either pooling or not, and sometimes substantially improves over both extremes. The bias introduced is small, as is shown by a simulation study that is carefully matched to a real data example. Our method is particularly useful when small groups of individuals are genotyped at a large number of markers, a situation we are likely to encounter in a genome-wide association study.     

Suppressing Asset Price Inflation: The Confederate Experience, 1861–1865

Confederate asset price stabilization policies appear to have increased the velocity of circulation and counterproductively channeled inflationary pressures into other areas of the economy. Three successive monetary reforms encouraged holders of Treasury notes to exchange these notes for bonds by imposing deadlines on their convertibility. We show that Confederate funding acts aimed at precipitating the conversion of currency into bonds did temporarily suppress currency depreciation. These acts also triggered upsurges in commodity prices, however, because note holders rushed to spend the currency before their exchange rights were reduced.     

Wer erbt Mehr? Erbschaften, Sozialstruktur und Alterssicherung

How do inheritances affect social structure, wealth formation, and provision for old age? Who benefits the most from inheritances? We analyse these questions based on the 2001 wave of the Socio-Economic Panel, which gives information on the deceased, and on the type, time, chance, and amount of the inheritance. Our findings confirm the theoretical hypotheses in general. Inheritance research is intergenerational research: most inheritances come from parents and benefit the recipients in the second half of their lives. However, the chances of receiving an inheritance and amounts inherited are distributed very unevenly. West Germans inherit significantly more frequently and larger amounts than East Germans due to the continuing effects of conditions in the former GDR. Foreigners have particularly low chances of receiving an inheritance. Thus, provision for old age through inheritance is limited mainly to specific groups of people. The most advantaged groups are the highly educated classes, which already receive higher (retirement) income.     

To File Or Not To File? Systemic Incentives, Corporate Control, and the Bankruptcy Decision

This research investigates the distinctions between bankrupt firms and equally leveraged firms that avoid bankruptcy. Building upon the systemic incentives of bankruptcy law, and specifically those applicable to Chapter 11 reorganizations, the study argues that the firm’s governance and capital structure characteristics moderate the relationship between the firm’s financial condition and the filing decision. The results of this study indicate that, contrary to agency theoretical predictions, firms with high levels of inside equity ownership and secured indebtedness file in poorer financial condition than peer firms with low levels of these variables. By contrast, firms with high levels of outside equity ownership and short-term indebtedness file when in relatively better financial condition.