Is There Still a Wage Penalty for Being Overeducated But Well‐matched in Skills? A Panel Data Analysis of a Swiss Graduate Cohort

Using two periods' panel data from the Swiss Graduate Survey, this study examines the incidence, persistence and wage effects of overeducation. An alternative measure of overeducation that accounts for graduate heterogeneity in perceived skills mismatch is used. This analysis differs from previous panel data studies in that two estimation methods are applied to control for unobserved ability. Results indicate that graduates who are overeducated and mismatched in skills are the most penalized in terms of earnings. This evidence is still valid when unobserved ability is accounted for, whereas the pay penalty is no more significant for graduates who are overeducated but matched in skills. This result is robust to different definitions of perceived skills mismatch and is consistent with the notion that apparent overeducation reflects a lack of unobserved attributes, such as ability.     

Strategic investment decisions in multi-stage contests with heterogeneous players

When heterogeneous players make strategic investment decisions in multi-stage contests, they might conserve resources in a current contest to spend more in a subsequent contest, if the degree of heterogeneity in the current (subsequent) contest is sufficiently large (small). We confirm these predictions using data from German professional soccer, in which players are subject to a one-match ban if they accumulate five yellow cards. Players with four yellow cards facing the risk of being suspended for the next match are (i) less likely to be fielded when the heterogeneity in the current match increases and (ii) more likely to receive a fifth yellow card in the current match when heterogeneity in the next match increases or heterogeneity in the next match but one (when they return from their ban) decreases.

     

On the effect of correlation and unequal variances in detecting a spurious observation

Srivastava (1980) has shown that Grubbs's (1950) test for a univariate outlier is robust against the effect of equicorrelation. In this note we extend Srivastava's result by giving a more general covariance structure, which relaxes both the covariance structure and the assumption of equal variances. We also show that under the more general covariance structure, the power of Grubbs's test, as well as the significance level, is identical to the independently and identically distributed case.     

Measuring… What? Notes on Some Globalization Indices

The article examines some of the instruments devised to measure globalization, in particular the CSGR Globalisation Index and the A.T. Kearney/Foreign Policy Globalization Index. The article begins by comparing the features and results of these instruments, and then highlights their strengths and weaknesses. The two most significant weaknesses are as follows. The first consists in what Beck has called ‘methodological nationalism’: the fact that attempts are made to study an essentially transnational phenomenon on a national basis. The second weakness resides in the problems—in terms of the completeness, adequacy, and timeliness of information—of the database used to calculated these indices. Also to be emphasized is that analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of these indices cannot be separated from the purpose for which they have been devised. In other words, there is no one ‘best’ instrument in absolute terms; rather there is an array of instruments with which to pursue particular knowledge goals. Finally, discussion of the techniques used to measure the phenomenon provides an occasion to raise considerations concerning the nature of globalization.     

Maximum likelihood estimation of bivariate circular hidden Markov models from incomplete data

In this paper, we propose a hidden Markov model for the analysis of the time series of bivariate circular observations, by assuming that the data are sampled from bivariate circular densities, whose parameters are driven by the evolution of a latent Markov chain. The model segments the data by accounting for redundancies due to correlations along time and across variables. A computationally feasible expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is provided for the maximum likelihood estimation of the model from incomplete data, by treating the missing values and the states of the latent chain as two different sources of incomplete information. Importance-sampling methods facilitate the computation of bootstrap standard errors of the estimates. The methodology is illustrated on a bivariate time series of wind and wave directions and compared with popular segmentation models for bivariate circular data, which ignore correlations across variables and/or along time.     

THE IMPACT OF IMMIGRATION ON THE STRUCTURE OF WAGES: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM BRITAIN

Immigration to the UK, particularly among more educated workers, has risen appreciably over the past 30 years and as such has raised labor supply. However studies of the impact of immigration have failed to find any significant effect on the wages of native‐born workers in the UK. This is potentially puzzling since there is evidence that changes in the supply of educated natives have had significant effects on their wages. Using a pooled time series of British cross‐sectional micro data on male wages and employment from the mid‐1970s to the mid‐2000s, this paper offers one possible resolution to this puzzle, namely that in the UK natives and foreign born workers are imperfect substitutes. We show that immigration has primarily reduced the wages of immigrants—and in particular of university educated immigrants—with little discernable effect on the wages of the native‐born.     

Disciplining Democracy: How the Upper and Middle Class in Manila Envision Democratic Order

Qualitative Sociology - I describe how the upper and middle class in Metro Manila see the democratic state and how they imagine reforming it. I argue that they are not turning away from democracy...