On the Representation of Incomplete Preferences Over Risky Alternatives

We study preferences over lotteries which do not necessarily satisfy completeness. We provide a characterization which generalizes Expected Utility theory. We show in particular that various sure-thing axioms are needed to guaranteee the representability in terms of utility intervals rather than numbers, and to provide a linear interval order representation which is very much in the spirit of Expected Utility theory.     

Can we declare military Keynesianism dead?

This paper empirically tests the Keynesian hypothesis that government defence spending positively impacts on aggregate output, by using a long-run equilibrium model for the US and the UK.Our contribution, with respect to previous works, is twofold. First, our inferences are adjusted for structural breaks exhibited by the data concerning fiscal and monetary variables. Second, we take into account different dynamics between defence spending on aggregate output, showing that the results are sensitive to sub-sample choices. Though the estimated elasticities in both countries show a lack of significance in the more recent years of the sample, defence-spending priorities addressed to international security may revitalize pro-cyclical effects in the UK, by an industrial policy of defence shared with the EU members.     

Generalized linear mixed joint model for longitudinal and survival outcomes

Longitudinal studies often entail categorical outcomes as primary responses. When dropout occurs, non-ignorability is frequently accounted for through shared parameter models (SPMs). In this context, several extensions from Gaussian to non-Gaussian longitudinal processes have been proposed. In this paper, we formulate an approach for non-Gaussian longitudinal outcomes in the framework of joint models. As an extension of SPMs, based on shared latent effects, we assume that the history of the response up to current time may have an influence on the risk of dropout. This history is represented by the current, expected, value of the response. Since the time a subject spends in the study is continuous, we parametrize the dropout process through a proportional hazard model. The resulting model is referred to as Generalized Linear Mixed Joint Model (GLMJM). To estimate model parameters, we adopt a maximum likelihood approach via the EM algorithm. In this context, the maximization of the observed data log-likelihood requires numerical integration over the random effect posterior distribution, which is usually not straightforward; under the assumption of Gaussian random effects, we compare Gauss-Hermite and Pseudo-Adaptive Gaussian quadrature rules. We investigate in a simulation study the behaviour of parameter estimates in the case of Poisson and Binomial longitudinal responses, and apply the GLMJM to a benchmark dataset.     

Regional mismatch and unemployment: theory and evidence from Italy, 1977–1998

We describe the functioning of a two-region economy characterized by asymmetric wage setting. Labour market tightness in the leading-region affects wages in the whole economy. In equilibrium, net labour demand shifts towards the leading region raise unemployment elsewhere and leave regional wages unchanged, causing an increase in aggregate unemployment. Based on SHIW micro-data on earnings, we find strong evidence that wages in Italy only respond to Northern unemployment. We estimate that around 33% of the increase in Italian unemployment during 1977–1998 can be explained by regional mismatch, mainly due to an excess labour supply growth in the South.

Reputational cues in repeated trust games

The importance of reputation in human societies is highlighted both by theoretical models and empirical studies. In this paper, we have extended the scope of previous experimental studies based on trust games by creating treatments where players can rate their opponents’ behavior and know their past ratings. Our results showed that being rated by other players and letting this rating be known are factors that increase cooperation levels even when rational reputational investment motives are ruled out. More generally, subjects tended to respond to reputational opportunities even when this was neither rational nor explainable by reciprocity.     

A survival analysis of the last great European plagues: The case of Nonantola (Northern Italy) in 1630

This paper develops the first survival analysis of a large-scale mortality crisis caused by plague. For the time-to-event analyses we used the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Our case study is the town of Nonantola during the 1630 plague, which was probably the worst to affect Italy since the Black Death. Individual risk of death did not depend on sex, grew with age (peaking at ages 40–60 and then declining), was not affected by socio-economic status, and was positively associated with household size. We discuss these findings in light of the historical–demographic and palaeo-demographic literature on medieval and early modern plagues. Our results are compatible with the debated idea that ancient plague was able to spread directly from human to human. Our methods could be replicated in other studies of European plagues to nuance and integrate the findings of recent palaeo-biological and palaeo-demographic research on plague.     

THE EFFECT OF HOUSING WEALTH LOSSES ON SPENDING IN THE GREAT RECESSION

We use panel data on a complete inventory of household spending and assets to estimate the spending response to the sharp and largely unexpected declines in house values that occurred in the Great Recession. Our study complements the existing literature on this topic by relying exclusively on longitudinal micro data on both household wealth and expenditure. Our data span the period 2002–2012, allowing us to separate trends in spending from innovations in response to unexpected wealth changes. We find the marginal propensity to consume out of an unexpected housing wealth change to be 6 cents per dollar among older American households. (JEL D12, D14, E21)     

Toponymy as Method: Official Italian Rhetoric,History and the Foibe

This paper examines the victimization policy in Italian history through a multifaceted investigation of Italian toponymy: statistics, history, and communication. The investigation shows that the attitudes of victimhood and chauvinism in the public discourse concerning the Italian past became not only socially prevalent but also part of the official rhetoric of the Republic. These narratives resulted in moral shifts concerning the national past, and the foibe (mass killings in Northeast Italy at the end of World War II) became the most representative and celebrated event, as testified by the co‐occurrence of the concept of “martyrdom” with the foibe.     

Explaining subnational variations in early childhood education and care. A fuzzy‐set analysis of the Italian case

Although cross‐country differences in the development of early childhood education and care (ECEC) services have been widely researched, the pronounced subnational variation that characterizes many countries is little researched. This article aims to contribute filling this gap by investigating the factors underlying ECEC development in Italian regions, where take‐up rates of public and subsidized daycare centers, behind a national average of 12%, range from 2% in some Southern regions to 25% in Emilia Romagna (North‐East). The article explores the configurations of economic, socio‐demographic, political, institutional, and cultural factors possibly responsible for high and low ECEC development through Fuzzy‐set/Qualitative Comparative Analysis. Results show that economic development and female employment are necessary but not sufficient conditions for ECEC development; similarly, familistic values, the lack of early ECEC development and of social capital are necessary but not sufficient conditions for limited expansion. The analysis identifies multifaceted patterns of (non)expansion, thus demonstrating the complexity of social policy development processes and preventing determinism based on need, cultural, or economic factors.     

A Reduced Posetic Approach to the Measurement of Multidimensional Ordinal Deprivation

In this paper, we discuss the existence of particular systems of generators for posets associated to multidimensional systems of ordinal indicators and derive a reduced posetic procedure for the measurement of multidimensional ordinal deprivation. The proposal is motivated by the need to lessen the computational complexity of the original posetic procedure described in Fattore (Soc Indic Res 128(2):835–858, 2015), so as to make it applicable to larger multi-indicator systems, particularly to those comprising many variables scored on “short” scales, as typical in deprivation studies. The reduced procedure computes identification and severity functions based only on so-called lexicographic linear extensions. These are a particular generating system for the basic achievement poset, naturally associated to rankings of deprivation attributes. After motivating this choice, both from an interpretative and a computational point of view, the paper provides some simulated examples, comparing the reduced and the non-reduced procedures.