THE FAILURE TO PREDICT THE GREAT RECESSION—A VIEW THROUGH THE ROLE OF CREDIT

Much has been written about why economists failed to predict the latest crisis. Reading the literature, it seems that this crisis was so obvious that economists must have been blind not to see it coming. We approach this failure by looking at one of the key variables in this analysis, the evolution of credit. We compare the conclusions reached in the recent literature with those that could have been drawn from an ex‐ante analysis. We show that the effect of credit on the business cycle cannot be exploited from a policymaker's point of view.     

Remote control: measuring performance for value creation and governance of globally distributed knowledge work

This article examines the governance of globally distributed knowledge work. To measure performance in knowledge work, it is important to focus on what the knowledge workers do and hence view knowledge as something one does, namely the practices, instead of something one has. By following the practices of knowledge work, it was possible to evaluate the effect of measures related to organizational processes, and identify what was not well covered by the measurement tool. Strategic and long term needs such as learning and employee competence are better managed through projects. This article shows how work performance in international organizations needs two different measures: one tool for measuring short-term value creation linked to the organizational processes; and, one tool for measuring long-term value creation linked to the practices of service work made in projects. Global governance of distributed employees is therefore successfully managed through key performance measures and through understanding projects through their multiple contributions, at both an individual and an organizational level. Global long term governance needs are strategic for the entire firm. The paper rests on an in-depth empirical case study of an international professional service firm.     

Tight approximation bounds for combinatorial frugal coverage algorithms

We consider the frugal coverage problem, an interesting variation of set cover defined as follows. Instances of the problem consist of a universe of elements and a collection of sets over these elements; the objective is to compute a subcollection of sets so that the number of elements it covers plus the number of sets not chosen is maximized. The problem was introduced and studied by Huang and Svitkina (Proceedings of the 29th IARCS annual conference on foundations of software technology and theoretical computer science (FSTTCS), pp. 227–238, 2009) due to its connections to the donation center location problem. We prove that the greedy algorithm has approximation ratio at least 0.782, improving a previous bound of 0.731 in Huang and Svitkina (Proceedings of the 29th IARCS annual conference on foundations of software technology and theoretical computer science (FSTTCS), pp. 227–238, 2009). We also present a further improvement that is obtained by adding a simple corrective phase at the end of the execution of the greedy algorithm. The approximation ratio achieved in this way is at least 0.806. Finally, we consider a packing based algorithm that uses semi-local optimization, and show that its approximation ratio is not less than 0.872. Our analysis is based on the use of linear programs which capture the behavior of the algorithms in worst-case examples. The obtained bounds are proved to be tight.     

Managers' personal values as predictors of importance attached to training and development: a cross-country exploratory study

Few empirical studies have examined the effect of personal values on the importance attached by individuals to training and development in organizations. We argue that personal values play an important role in decision-making processes (i.e. commitment to training and development) and that such values are the product of socialization processes operating at an organizational and societal level. Questionnaire data were collected from 340 Irish and Canadian line managers to test the hypothesis that personal values affect the importance attached by respondents to training and development. Capability values were found to be a significant positive predictor of the perceived importance of training and development. The findings emphasize the need for simultaneously examining both personal values and organizational factors as predictors of training and development activity.     

Nutrient intake in day workers and shift workers

Abstract

The 24-h dietary intake, nutritional status parameters and psychosomatic factors of two-shift, three-shift and day workers were compared. Estimations of the dietary intake (across a work cycle) were made by use of a nutrient database. No significant differences were found between the groups for a large number of nutritional variables: intake of energy; intake and percentage of energy from protein, fat, total carbohydrates and sucrose; intake of coffee; and intake and density of vitamins and minerals. Only minor differences were found between the groups with regard to the quantitative intake of alcohol and calcium, and with regard to the quality of the diet (percentage of energy from alcohol, density of calcium). The groups differed significantly with respect to attitude towards work hours (three-shift workers being most negative in their attitude) and sleep disturbances (shift workers being most negative). The three-shift workers were more evening-oriented and they had higher concentrations of glucose in their blood. It was concluded that work hours not related to nutritional intake—at least not when total amounts across time are considered. It was also concluded that work hours were not related to Body Mass Index or blood lipids: triglycerides, total cholesterol, LDL (low-density lipoprotein) cholesterol and HDL (high-density lipoprotein) cholesterol.     

Quantitative Risk Estimation for a Legionella pneumophila Infection Due to Whirlpool Use

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment was used to quantify the risk associated with the exposure to Legionella pneumophila in a whirlpool. Conceptually, air bubbles ascend to the surface, intercepting Legionella from the traversed water. At the surface the bubble bursts into dominantly noninhalable jet drops and inhalable film drops. Assuming that film drops carry half of the intercepted Legionella, a total of four (95% interval: 1–9) and 4.5×10⁴ (4.4×10⁴ – 4.7×10⁴) cfu/min were estimated to be aerosolized for concentrations of 1 and 1,000 legionellas per liter, respectively. Using a dose‐response model for guinea pigs to represent humans, infection risks for active whirlpool use with 100 cfu/L water for 15 minutes were 0.29 (～0.11–0.48) for susceptible males and 0.22 (～0.06–0.42) for susceptible females. A L. pneumophila concentration of ≥1,000 cfu/L water was estimated to nearly always cause an infection (mean: 0.95; 95% interval: 0.9–～1). Estimated infection risks were time‐dependent, ranging from 0.02 (0–0.11) for 1‐minute exposures to 0.93 (0.86–0.97) for 2‐hour exposures when the L. pneumophila concentration was 100 cfu/L water. Pool water in Dutch bathing establishments should contain <100 cfu Legionella/L water. This study suggests that stricter provisions might be required to assure adequate public health protection.     

Nonparametric estimation of the conditional distribution function in a semiparametric censorship model

In this paper we propose a new nonparametric estimator of the conditional distribution function under a semiparametric censorship model. We establish an asymptotic representation of the estimator as a sum of iid random variables, balanced by some kernel weights. This representation is used for obtaining large sample results such as the rate of uniform convergence of the estimator, or its limit distributional law. We prove that the new estimator outperforms the conditional Kaplan–Meier estimator for censored data, in the sense that it exhibits lower asymptotic variance. Illustration through real data analysis is provided.     

Web 2.0, Library 2.0, and the Hyperlinked Library

Discussions surrounding the concepts of Web 2.0/Library 2.0 are increasing among the library community. This column outlines key principles behind Web 2.0 and provides a brief explanation of social tools, such as blogs, RSS feeds, podcasting, and wikis. The author also provides specific uses and applications of these tools within the library environment to illustrate the Library 2.0 concept. An open framework for library communication or hyperlinked library can result if Library 2.0 philosophies are fully utilized.     

The changing importance of white women's economic prospects for assortative mating

Given recent changes in the labor force participation and economic standing of women, we ask whether a woman's position in the labor market has become a more important determinant of her position in the marriage market. Unlike much prior research on trends over time in assortative mating, we take an individual‐level approach to the analysis and rely on improved measures of labor market position, such as measuring wives' wages before marriage and considering multiple indicators of husbands' longer term economic standing. Our analysis relies on data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Young Women (N = 759) and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (N = 767). Our results are consistent with growth over time in the importance of women's earnings potential in determining their marriage prospects.