A Method for Computing the Fraction of Attributable Risk Related to Climate Damages

The recent decision of the U.S. Supreme Court on the regulation of CO₂ emissions from new motor vehicles^{( 1 )} shows the need for a robust methodology to evaluate the fraction of attributable risk from such emissions. The methodology must enable decisionmakers to reach practically relevant conclusions on the basis of expert assessments the decisionmakers see as an expression of research in progress, rather than as knowledge consolidated beyond any reasonable doubt.^{( 2,3,4 )} This article presents such a methodology and demonstrates its use for the Alpine heat wave of 2003. In a Bayesian setting, different expert assessments on temperature trends and volatility can be formalized as probability distributions, with initial weights (priors) attached to them. By Bayesian learning, these weights can be adjusted in the light of data. The fraction of heat wave risk attributable to anthropogenic climate change can then be computed from the posterior distribution. We show that very different priors consistently lead to the result that anthropogenic climate change has contributed more than 90% to the probability of the Alpine summer heat wave in 2003. The present method can be extended to a wide range of applications where conclusions must be drawn from divergent assessments under uncertainty.     

From social ties to embedded competencies: the case of business groups

Our current views of economic competition are still rooted in the imagery of the isolated firm that transacts with its buyers, suppliers, and competitors via largely anonymous factor and product markets. Yet this view is fundamentally at odds with the growing importance of business groups in the global economy. We thus need a reconceptualized version of our idea of economic competition, which is capable of explaining competitive advantage at the group-versus-group rather than firm-versus-firm level of analysis. In the present paper we build on insights derived from organizational sociology and organizational economics to develop a business group-level theory of competition and competitive advantage based on embedded competencies.

Analysis of postponement strategy by EPQ-based models with planned backorders

This paper develops economic production quantity (EPQ)-based models with planned backorders to evaluate the impact of the postponement strategy on a manufacturer in a supply chain. We derive the optimal total average costs per unit time for producing and keeping n end-products in a postponement system and a non-postponement system, respectively. By comparing the optimal total average costs of the two systems, we evaluate the impact of postponement on the manufacturer under four circumstances. Our results show that postponement strategy can give a lower total average cost under certain circumstances. We also find that the key factors in postponement decisions are the variance of the machine utilization rates and the variance of the backorder costs.     

The Price Chameleons Pay: Self‐monitoring,Boundary Spanning and Role Conflict in the Workplace*

The vast majority of research on self‐monitoring in the workplace focuses on the benefits that accrue to chameleon‐like high self‐monitors (relative to true‐to‐themselves low self‐monitors). In this study, we depart from the mainstream by focusing on a potential liability of being a high self‐monitor: high levels of experienced role conflict. We hypothesize that high self‐monitors tend to choose work situations that, although consistent with the expression of their characteristic personality, inherently involve greater role conflict (i.e. competing role expectations from different role senders). Data collected from a 116‐member high‐tech firm showed support for this mediation hypothesis: relative to low self‐monitors, high self‐monitors tended to experience greater role conflict in work organizations because high self‐monitors were more likely to occupy boundary spanning positions. To help draw a more realistic and balanced portrait of self‐monitoring in the workplace, we call for more theoretically grounded research on the price chameleons pay.     

Eliciting Risk and Time Preferences

We design experiments to jointly elicit risk and time preferences for the adult Danish population. Since subjects are generally risk averse, we find that joint elicitation provides estimates of discount rates that are significantly lower than those found in previous studies and more in line with what would be considered as a priori reasonable rates. The statistical specification relies on a theoretical framework that involves a latent trade‐off between long‐run optimization and short‐run temptation. Estimation of this specification is undertaken using structural, maximum likelihood methods. Our main results based on exponential discounting are robust to alternative specifications such as hyperbolic discounting. These results have direct implications for attempts to elicit time preferences, as well as debates over the appropriate domain of the utility function when characterizing risk aversion and time consistency.     

Entscheidungsverhalten von Kunden in Mass Customization-Systemen

Sequential choice processes are ubiquitous in consumer decision making. In each attribute decision, consumers are often faced with different numbers of options which they must trade off in order to make the best possible choice. Thereby, complicated high variety choices at the beginning of a choice process produce a larger trade-off conflict and, thus, initially a greater mental depletion than more simple low variety choices. We examine the strength of mental depletion in sequential choices on individuals’ perceived attractiveness of the firm’s recommended default option at a target choice. We show that consumers who are confronted with difficult high variety choices early in the decision sequence followed by low variety choices initially deplete more than consumers who encounter exactly the same attribute decisions in reverse. As a result, depleted consumers are more likely to fall prey to the recommended default or some perceptually focal options close to the default anchor at target choice succeeding a sequence of decisions.     

Expert Study to Select Indicators of the Occurrence of Emerging Mycotoxin Hazards

This article describes a Delphi‐based expert judgment study aimed at the selection of indicators to identify the occurrence of emerging mycotoxin hazards related to Fusarium spp. in wheat supply chains. A panel of 29 experts from 12 European countries followed a holistic approach to evaluate the most important indicators for different chain stages (growth, transport and storage, and processing) and their relative importance. After three e‐mailing rounds, the experts reached consensus on the most important indicators for each of the three stages: wheat growth, transport and storage, and processing. For wheat growth, these indicators include: relative humidity/rainfall, crop rotation, temperature, tillage practice, water activity of the kernels, and crop variety/cultivar. For the transport and storage stage, they include water activity in the kernels, relative humidity, ventilation, temperature, storage capacity, and logistics. For wheat processing, indicators include quality data, fraction of the cereal used, water activity in the kernels, quality management and traceability systems, and carryover of contamination. The indicators selected in this study can be used in an identification system for the occurrence of emerging mycotoxin hazards in wheat supply chains. Such a system can be used by risk managers within governmental (related) organizations and/or the food and feed industry in order to react proactively to the occurrence of these emerging mycotoxins.     

Ecological Risk Assessment,Prediction, and Assessing Risk Predictions

Ecological risk assessment embodied in an adaptive management framework is becoming the global standard approach for formally assessing and managing the ecological risks of technology and development. Ensuring the continual improvement of ecological risk assessment approaches is partly achieved through the dissemination of not only the types of risk assessment approaches used, but also their efficacy. While there is an increasing body of literature describing the results of general comparisons between alternate risk assessment methods and models, there is a paucity of literature that post hoc assesses the performance of specific predictions based on an assessment of risk and the effectiveness of the particular model used to predict the risk. This is especially the case where risk assessments have been used to grant consent or approval for the construction of major infrastructure projects. While postconstruction environmental monitoring is increasingly commonplace, it is not common for a postconstruction assessment of the accuracy and performance of the ecological risk assessment and underpinning model to be undertaken. Without this “assessment of the assessment,” it is difficult for other practitioners to gain insight into the performance of the approach and models used and therefore, as argued here, this limits the rate of improvement of risk assessment approaches.     

Generations in organizations

Despite a rich tradition of scholarship across many disciplines, organizational research on the topic of generations has been relatively scarce. In this article we develop a framework for studying generations in organizations that draws on multiple conceptualizations across multiple disciplines. Our framework distills two distinct critical elements that give ‘generations’ agency in organizational settings – chronology (the idea that a unique location in time creates a ‘generation’) and genealogy (the idea that generations are linked through the transmission/descent of ideas/values/skills/knowledge). After an historic overview of the evolution of the topic of generations, we review generational research across the fields of political sociology, family sociology, psychology, social anthropology, cultural sociology, demography, and gerontology. Our framework elucidates how linkages between generations, based on chronology and genealogy, can be characterized in organizations and how the nature of intergenerational contact and transfer predicts a wide range of organizational outcomes such as change/innovation, conflict, turnover, and socialization. We outline the implications of this framework for future research on generations in organizations.     

Performance Effects Related to the Sequence of Integration of Healthcare Technologies

There is a natural order to most events in life: Everything from learning to read to DNA sequences in molecular biology follows some predetermined, structured methodology that has been refined to yield improved results. Likewise, it would seem that firms could benefit by adopting and implementing technologies in some logical way so as to increase their overall performance. In this study of 555 hospitals, we investigate the order in which medical technologies are transformed into information technologies through a process of converting them from stand‐alone technologies to interoperable, integrated information systems and whether certain configurations of sequences of integration yield additional value. We find that sequence does matter and that hospitals that integrated foundational technologies first—which in this case are known to be more complex—tend to perform better. Theoretical and practical implications of this finding and others are discussed.