Estimating the effectiveness of a misdemeanor drug diversion program using propensity score matching and survival analyses

This study analyzes three years of data on misdemeanor drug offenders in Winnebago County, Wisconsin. A portion of these offenders opted into a Misdemeanor Drug Diversion Program (MDDP) offered instead of traditional adjudication. Recidivism in the treatment and comparison groups is estimated using standard binary response techniques augmented with propensity score matching to address selection bias. Results show that the MDDP reduces the probability of re-offense by 16%, after adjusting for possible selection bias. Cox proportional hazard modeling is also used to assess time-to-re-offense differentials between the treatment and comparison groups. The survival analysis indicates that the hazard rate of re-offense is 60% lower per day among those treated with the MDDP program than those who did not complete the program. The average number of days to re-offense among those that do re-offend is 297 days in the treatment group and 203 days in the comparison group.     

Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts with Bayesian Signal Detection Models

We propose the use of signal detection theory (SDT) to evaluate the performance of both probabilistic forecasting systems and individual forecasters. The main advantage of SDT is that it provides a principled way to distinguish the response from system diagnosticity, which is defined as the ability to distinguish events that occur from those that do not. There are two challenges in applying SDT to probabilistic forecasts. First, the SDT model must handle judged probabilities rather than the conventional binary decisions. Second, the model must be able to operate in the presence of sparse data generated within the context of human forecasting systems. Our approach is to specify a model of how individual forecasts are generated from underlying representations and use Bayesian inference to estimate the underlying latent parameters. Given our estimate of the underlying representations, features of the classic SDT model, such as the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the ROC curve (AUC), follow immediately. We show how our approach allows ROC curves and AUCs to be applied to individuals within a group of forecasters, estimated as a function of time, and extended to measure differences in forecastability across different domains. Among the advantages of this method is that it depends only on the ordinal properties of the probabilistic forecasts. We conclude with a brief discussion of how this approach might facilitate decision making.     

Economic design of acceptance sampling plans for truncated life test using Frechet distribution

In this article designing of acceptance sampling plans for the truncated life test is proposed using economic approach by assuming that the lifetime of a product follows Frechet distribution based on median. The optimal sampling plans to meet the consumer’s confidence level with minimum total cost are designed. Efficiency of the proposed plan is also analyzed.     

Urban and agricultural soils: conflicts and trade-offs in the optimization of ecosystem services

On-going human population growth and changing patterns of resource consumption are increasing global demand for ecosystem services, many of which are provided by soils. Some of these ecosystem services are linearly related to the surface area of pervious soil, whereas others show non-linear relationships, making ecosystem service optimization a complex task. As limited land availability creates conflicting demands among various types of land use, a central challenge is how to weigh these conflicting interests and how to achieve the best solutions possible from a perspective of sustainable societal development. These conflicting interests become most apparent in soils that are the most heavily used by humans for specific purposes: urban soils used for green spaces, housing, and other infrastructure and agricultural soils for producing food, fibres and biofuels. We argue that, despite their seemingly divergent uses of land, agricultural and urban soils share common features with regards to interactions between ecosystem services, and that the trade-offs associated with decision-making, while scale- and context-dependent, can be surprisingly similar between the two systems. We propose that the trade-offs within land use types and their soil-related ecosystems services are often disproportional, and quantifying these will enable ecologists and soil scientists to help policy makers optimizing management decisions when confronted with demands for multiple services under limited land availability.     

Keeping Surveys Valid,Reliable, and Useful: A Tutorial

This tutorial focuses on how to produce reliable and generalizable data from random‐digit‐dialing (RDD) landline and cell phone surveys. The article notes that RDD response rates have declined and explores the impact of this pronounced decline. The tutorial addresses order, response mode, and many other biases, sample size, cooperation and response rates, weighting, and hybrid designs‐all using examples from risk analysis to illustrate the key points. The article ends with a brief review of the advantages and disadvantages of major Internet and paper surveys tools, and how these can be molded and sometimes combined in repeated, longitudinal, and other designs to answer questions about risk preferences and perceptions.     

Tests of fit for normal inverse Gaussian distributions

Goodness-of-fit tests for the family of symmetric normal inverse Gaussian distributions are constructed. The tests are based on a weighted integral incorporating the empirical characteristic function of suitably standardized data. An EM-type algorithm is employed for the estimation of the parameters involved in the test statistic. Monte Carlo results show that the new procedure is competitive with classical goodness-of-fit methods. An application with financial data is also included.     

Forced termination: Reconsidering theory and technique

Abstract

Forced terminations typically are described in the therapy literature as grim mourning processes fraught with peril and little benefit. Such endings, although not optimal, are potential opportunities for mastery, growth, and maturation. Overemphasizing the grim aspects of forced termination may impair the departing therapist's ability to sustain a belief in the client's ability to survive loss, use the process productively and, when indicated, transfer to another therapist. Case histories are used to illustrate other constructions and differential interventions during forced terminations.     

Influence measure for the L1 regression

Because outliers and leverage observations unduly affect the least squares regression, the identification of influential observations is considered an important and integrai part of the analysis. However, very few techniques have been developed for the residual analysis and diagnostics for the minimum sum of absolute errors, L₁ regression. Although the L₁ regression is more resistant to the outliers than the least squares regression, it appears that outliers (leverage) in the predictor variables may affect it. In this paper, our objective is to develop an influence measure for the L₁ regression based on the likelihood displacement function. We illustrate the proposed influence measure with examples.     

Exposing Humanism: Prudence,Ingenium, and the Politics of the Posthuman

This article examines posthumanism and its relationship to humanism. First, it is argued that the term “posthumanism” relies upon an incomplete conception of humanism, and in a way that forecloses the possibility of looking to the humanist tradition for support. Addressing Foucault's often quoted comments about the recent invention and imminent demise of man, it is argued that Foucault is not anti‐humanist, but is rather critical of the use of humanism as an axis of reflection. Second, the posthumanist perspective is summarized as attending to a set of interrelated ethical and epistemological concerns. Calling into question the boundary between human and nonhuman animals, posthumanism also challenges the primacy of empirico‐deductive reasoning and advocates a re‐legitimization of rhetoric as a mode of thought. Lastly, using Ernesto Grassi's interpretation of the early Italian humanists, this article demonstrates not only the compatibility of Renaissance humanism with posthumanist concerns, but also the fruitfulness of this tradition as a conceptual resource. Although the Renaissance notion of ingenium, the ability to adapt and make concrete situations meaningful without also affirming strong ontological commitments, is absent from posthumanist discourse, it is a concept that has the power to enrich the posthumanist project. Consequently, posthumanism is not actually at odds with the humanist tradition in general, but rather only with a very limited and relatively recent conception.