On the emptiness of the stability set of order d

We know from Li's theorem (1993) that the stability set of order d may be empty for some preference profiles. However, one may wonder whether such situations are just rare oddities or not. In this paper, we partially answer this question by considering the restrictive case where the number of alternatives is the smallest compatible with an empty stability set. More precisely, we provide an upper bound on the probability for having an empty stability set of order d for the majority game under the Impartial Weak Ordering Culture assumption. This upper bound is already extremely low for small population and tends to zero as the number of individuals goes to infinity.     

When Are Net Effects Gross Products? Communication

The rush to judgment about the social effects of the new communications media has branded them as positive and negative in equal measure. Alienation from "real world" relationships coupled with a lack of social regulation within the medium is balanced by liberation from the influences, inequalities, and identities to which people are subjected in face-to-face interaction. We argue that such general conclusions may in fact be turned upside down and propose that these media may actually strengthen social bonds but also reinforce power inequalities. Reviewing evidence of our research with university students, employing the social identity model of deindividuation effects, we show how these technologies can often be more "social," and socially regulated, than face-to-face interaction.     

Human Service organizations: an Australian perspective

Theoretical models or frameworks of change in human service organizations, both governmental and non-governmental, must adapt to the changing circumstances faced by such organizations in the later 1980s and 1990s. Too often change no longer means innovation initiated from within a service organization in order to improve service to its clients, but rather change engendered or enforced from outside the organization which may have uncertain or adverse implications for clients, target groups, or staff. Major changes may have to be implemented within tight time limits and in situations of high intra- and inter-organizational conflict. In such situations, sequential models of organizational change based upon a rational problem solving process, developed during the more favourable era of the 1970s, may be of limited use. A complementary framework for analysis and action planning can be built upon four dimensions of change identified here as rational-empirical, social-systems, power-politics and values-vision. These dimensions offer a comprehensive framework for understanding and intervening in various aspects of the change process, such as assessing the forces for and against change, preparing an organization for change, building up a change system, selecting change strategies, and evaluating a change process. Such a framework can be useful to those seeking to influence change in various alternative directions.     

Public Opinion and Dynamic Representation in the American States: The Case of Environmental Attitudes*

Objective. We investigate causal processes linking environmental conditions, attitudes, and policies in the American states: Is public opinion about ecology shaped by environmental conditions? Are state policymakers responsive to environmental opinions? Does public opinion respond to policy adoption? Methods. Using public opinion data from the DDB Worldwide Life Style Survey to measure aggregate state attitudes about the environment, as well as measures of water quality and policy intervention, we capture the dynamics of representation in the American states on the environment during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Results. Our findings support a thermostatic model of representation—state environmental opinions are influenced by environmental conditions and are responsive to policy outputs alongside improved environmental conditions. Conclusions. This model of the opinion‐policy linkage refines our understanding of representation and focuses us not just on the passage of public policy to address public desires, but the effectiveness of that policy as well.     

Complicated Problems,Complicated Solutions? Homelessness and Joined‐up Policy Responses

The government has recently signalled its determination to address both the symptoms and causes of homelessness through the introduction of new legislation requiring local authorities within England and Wales to develop strategic approaches to addressing this issue. Moreover, in common with many other areas of social provision in recent years, the “joining‐up” of services has been identified as a central tenet of these new approaches. In the case of homelessness, then, experience gleaned from other policy fields may prove an invaluable resource, in terms both of guiding approaches and in avoiding potential pitfalls. This paper examines the findings from a study undertaken within one Midlands city to investigate this assumption. Based upon evidence from this study it is suggested that, while precedent can offer this particular policy area valuable lessons, homelessness is an issue which, due to its multi‐dimensionality, offers new and unique challenges of its own.     

Paying to improve your chances: Gambling or insurance?

Will a more risk-averse individual spend more or less to improve probabilities, say on marketing efforts that enhance the chance of a sale? For any two payoffs and starting probabilities, the answer is unfortunately indeterminate. However, interpreting gambling as increasing small chances of good outcomes and insurance as reducing small chances of bad outcomes, the more risk-averse individual will pay less (more) to gamble (insure). We find a critical switching probability that depends on the individuals and outcomes involved. If the good outcome is less (more) likely than this critical value, the expenditures represent gambling (insurance).     

Neoliberalism,Inequality and Politics: The Changing Face of Australia

Since the early 1980s Australian public policy has undergone the most major transformation since Federation. This transformation has been underwritten by two key principles: liberalism – the view that citizens are autonomous individual actors whose interests are best served when they are free from coercive government interventions into individual action; and marketisation – the belief that free markets are arenas which best enable individual autonomy and produce efficient economic outcomes. These principles define ‘neoliberalism’ or ‘hard liberalism‘. After summarising the major policy changes identified with neoliberalism in Australia, the paper introduces a new research project that examines its impact on socioeconomic inequality, gender inequality and politics and culture. Inspection of relevant data indicates that there are important trends in inequality, public opinion and political behaviour that warrant this investigation.     

Bayesian analysis of discrete time warranty data

Summary.  The analysis of warranty claim data, and their use for prediction, has been a topic of active research in recent years. Field data comprising numbers of units returned under guarantee are examined, covering both situations in which the ages of the failed units are known and in which they are not. The latter case poses particular computational problems for likelihood-based methods because of the large number of feasible failure patterns that must be included as contributions to the likelihood function. For prediction of future warranty exposure, which is of central concern to the manufacturer, the Bayesian approach is adopted. For this, Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology is developed.