Zur Exploration statistisch gut angepasster Latent-Class-Modelle durch Homogenitätsanalyse

With this article, an attempt is made to combine both confirmatory and exploratory analysis. It is argued that confirmatory and exploratory approaches have to complement one another. As an example for confirmation latent-class-models are estimated for 3 variables which are supposed to measure a latent dimension “attitudes towards integration — segregation of the mentally ill”. Employing a 3-, and a 4-class solution it can be shown that exclusively looking on the model fit is not sufficient. Since both models fit equally well, both the membership-probabilities and the category-probabilities for each class are inspected. By means of homogeneity-analysis within the latent classes, the interpretation of deviations from the model assumptions is facilitated considerably. It is shown that very special and rare responsepattern may question a straightforward interpretation of a simple parsimonious model.     

The role of events in ICT adoption: same-sex marriage and Twitter

ICT adoption is predominantly considered as a process conditioned by social structures, social situations of adopters, and attributes and features of technologies. What is often overlooked are the cultural forces that shape adoption experiences and processes. This paper focuses on events and event narratives as vehicles through which the efficacy of culture unfolds in technological change processes. Cultural sociology has shown how influential events can be for forming public opinions and facilitating collective action. This article considers the power of one event on a much smaller scale: the passage of same-sex marriage (SSM) law in New York in June 2011 was not only significant for marriage equality in the US but also for the operating logic of the news ecosystem in which the political decision was made ? the state house in Albany. For the journalists who covered this event on the ground, the SSM decision was the catalyst to fully embrace Twitter. Years later, the event still served as an exemplar for the potentials of Twitter and as a basis of legitimacy of associated tweeting practices reporters incorporated. This contribution is based on ethnographic research at the state house in Albany, analysis of tweets and legacy news coverage published during that period, and in-depth interviews with reporters.     

‘I Want to Persuade You!’ – Investigating the effectiveness of explicit persuasion concerning attributes of the communicator and the marketing campaign

In explicit persuasion, the communicator states explicitly a desire to persuade the consumer. By referring to an attributional approach, social engagement was simultaneously explored as a beneficial communicator attribute, while cause-related marketing (CRM) was addressed as a boundary condition. In an experiment, we varied the persuasion strategy (explicit vs. implicit), the communicator’s prior experience with social engagement (yes vs. no), and the specific marketing strategy (CRM vs. non-charity marketing). As expected, in the non-charity marketing condition, explicit (vs. implicit) persuasion was more effective when the communicator had prior experience in social engagement. In the CRM condition, explicit (vs. implicit) persuasion was less effective when the communicator had prior experience in social engagement; when no prior experience was reported, persuasiveness increased.     

Une jeunesse stigmatisée: l'influence du chômage précoce sur le chômage ultérieur

Le chômage rencontré au début du parcours professionnel favorise‐t‐il le chômage ultérieur? Pour le savoir, les auteurs suivent la trajectoire de quelque 700 000 actifs allemands sur une période de vingt‐quatre ans en utilisant des données administratives appariées employeurs‐salariés. Grâce à la méthode des variables instrumentales (l'instrument étant ici la fermeture de l'entreprise), ils font apparaître des séquelles durables du chômage précoce, chaque nouvelle journée chômée pendant les huit premières années de vie active augmentant d'une demi‐journée en moyenne le chômage des seize années suivantes. Selon des régressions quantiles, le caractère prolongé et répété des épisodes de chômage initial renforce sensiblement cet «effet cicatrice».     

Promoting work ability and well-being in hospital nursing: the interplay of age, job control, and successful ageing strategies

Previous research shows that work ability of nurses decreases with age. In our study we therefore addressed the following questions: Do successful ageing strategies at work in terms of selection, optimization, and compensation (SOC) support the work ability of nurses? Does SOC mediate the relationship between job control (i.e., decision opportunities at work) and work ability? Does the mediation differ between age-groups? 438 nurses (Age Range 21-63 years) completed a questionnaire in the course of an employee survey. Results show that SOC is positively related with work ability. The positive effect of job control on work ability is significantly mediated by SOC. There are stronger mediating effects for elder nurses than for younger nurses. Results indicate that the interplay of job control and SOC at work helps to maintain the work ability of nurses in nursing care.     

Reliability of accelerometric measurement of physical activity in older adults-the benefit of using the trimmed sum

There is general consensus that physical activity is important for preserving functional capacities of older adults and positively influencing quality of life. While accelerometry is widely accepted and applied to assess physical activity in studies, several problems with this method remain (e.g., low retest reliability, measurement errors). The aim of this study was to test the intra-instrumental retest reliability of a wrist-worn accelerometer in a 3-day measurement of physical activity in older adults and to compare different estimators. A sample of 123 older adults (76.5?±?5.1?years, 59?% female) wore a uniaxial accelerometer continuously for 1?week. The data were split into two repeated measurement values (week set) of 3?days each. The sum, the 80?C99th quantiles and the 80?C99th trimmed sums were built for each week set. Retest reliability was assessed for each estimator and graphically demonstrated by Bland?CAltman plots. The intraclass correlation of the retest reliability ranged from 0.22 to 0.91. Retest reliability increases when a more robust estimator than the overall sum is used. Therefore, the trimmed sum can be recommended as a conservative estimate of the physical activity level of older adults.     

Bisphenol A: How the Most Relevant Exposure Sources Contribute to Total Consumer Exposure

Bisphenol A (BPA) is an endocrine disrupting chemical that is found in human urine throughout industrial societies around the globe. Consumer exposure pathways to BPA include packaged food, household dust, air, and dental fillings. To date, information on the relative contribution of the different pathways to total consumer exposure is lacking, but is key for managing substance‐associated risks. We investigated the relative contributions of the pathways known to be most relevant for nine different consumer groups. Our results suggest that the most important pathways for infants and children are the use of polycarbonate (PC) baby bottles and for adults and teenagers the consumption of canned food. Dental surgery can also considerably contribute over a short time directly after the surgery. For infants fed with PC baby bottles with mean dose rates of 0.8 μg/kg_bw/d the highest exposure dose rate was calculated. This dose rate is far below the tolerable daily intake of 50 μg/kg_bw/d. However, it is of the same order of magnitude as recently reported concentrations that caused low‐dose health effects in rodents. We find a pattern of falling exposure levels with rising age that is supported by urinary concentrations of BPA available for selected consumer groups. Similarly, the exposure levels we predict are confirmed by the levels reported in these studies.     

Management consultancy’s role in delivering lasting [triple bottom line] benefits

Abstract

Management consultants have become ubiquitous in helping improve organizational performance. This paper presents an investigation of the impact of their interventions on organizational sustainability and growth through the performance improvement work carried out for and with their clients. The paper presents the findings of a questionnaire survey of 440 respondents from 206 countries; 197 of respondents were Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs) and 243 from large organizations. There is a particular focus on knowledge transfer in terms of urgency and impact of the work with regard to the extent to which consulting interventions in SMEs, as well as large multinational corporations, embed long-term sustainability practices.     

A Probabilistic Framework for Risk Analysis of Widespread Flood Events: A Proof‐of‐Concept Study

This article presents a flood risk analysis model that considers the spatially heterogeneous nature of flood events. The basic concept of this approach is to generate a large sample of flood events that can be regarded as temporal extrapolation of flood events. These are combined with cumulative flood impact indicators, such as building damages, to finally derive time series of damages for risk estimation. Therefore, a multivariate modeling procedure that is able to take into account the spatial characteristics of flooding, the regionalization method top‐kriging, and three different impact indicators are combined in a model chain. Eventually, the expected annual flood impact (e.g., expected annual damages) and the flood impact associated with a low probability of occurrence are determined for a study area. The risk model has the potential to augment the understanding of flood risk in a region and thereby contribute to enhanced risk management of, for example, risk analysts and policymakers or insurance companies. The modeling framework was successfully applied in a proof‐of‐concept exercise in Vorarlberg (Austria). The results of the case study show that risk analysis has to be based on spatially heterogeneous flood events in order to estimate flood risk adequately.