Technological forecasting a criticism of the Delphi technique

The author criticises the “Delphi” method of forecasting technological developments by obtaining a consensus of opinion among experts. He argues that the problem is not to forecast what might happen, but rather to decide what should happen and he suggests improvements in the Delphi technique which would change it from an ad hoc method old crytal ball gazing” into a system for continuous consultation among “responsible organizations”.     

THE EFFECT OF RETAIL PROMOTIONAL ACTIVITIES ON SALES*

This article reports the formulation and results of a multiple equation econometric model to relate retail sales by brand and package size to retail promotional variables for a branded, frequently purchased grocery product. Primary emphasis is placed on the formulation of the model as opposed to the results obtained from its use.     

The New Jersey performance management system: a state system and uses of simple measures.

The New Jersey Performance Management System (PMS) is a major mechanism used by the leadership of the New Jersey Division of Mental Health and Hospitals to contract for, monitor and manage community mental health services. The goal of PMS is to foster proactive, data-based management via sound assessment of multi-dimensional performances, equitable distribution of resources and introduction of incentives. This paper describes PMS, its components, implementation, and limitations.     

What's In It for the Volunteers?

This article reports on a social return on investment (SROI) analysis of volunteers of the Good Food Market program, a food access initiative run by FoodShare Toronto, one of Canada's largest food‐justice organizations. Unlike conventional SROI research, which typically focuses on the entire ecology of an organization or program, this article focuses solely on isolating the return volunteers receive on their investment of time, skills, energy, and the like—an SROI of volunteering. The article reviews the challenges of adapting the SROI methodology to the context of volunteer benefits and finds that ultimately SROI is a useful tool for articulating the value of volunteering.     

RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE RISK CHARACTERISTICS*

This paper applies discriminant analysis to a relatively large sample of residential mortgages-some of which have defaulted or have been foreclosed and others of which have remained untroubled at least until the date of the last observation-in an attempt to derive a function which would allow mortgage lenders to increase their accuracy of predicting mortgage difficulty. From the data available for testing, no improvement in predictability is obtained, because it is thought that the data may already have been badly biased by the screening process of the loan officers which had already taken place and by the post-loan origination nature of the important variables in mortgage difficulty. The latter is confirmed by discriminant models of post-origination variables which are successful. It is concluded that changes in home value, changes in mortgagor income, mortgage assumption, and regional economic considerations are the major explanations of mortgage difficulty.     

A STRATEGY FOR INTEGRATING QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES INTO THE BUSINESS CURRICULUM*

Quantitative methods courses play an increasingly significant role in the programs of Schools of Business. However, maximum utilization of the concepts can occur only when these quantitative techniques have been integrated into the various functional areas via a faculty knowledgeable with such techniques and their applications. Lacking sufficient stimuli, this integrative process is observed to be one of an evolutionary nature. This article presents a strategy for stimulation of this process.     

THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTEGRATIVE CURRICULUM IN AN UNDERGRADUATE BUSINESS PROGRAM*

This paper describes how the core portion of the undergraduate business program at Indiana University was revised to facilitate integration of basic functionally oriented decision making skills and thus help students gain a deeper understanding of the interdependence of business decisions. It relates, in essence, why and how a single computer-oriented case study which demanded a solution to a large-scale, unified finance-marketing-production problem was used at Indiana University, mentions how we plan to accomplish further integration of functional material, and provides some insight into student reaction to what was, in fact, a massive project from both student and administrative points of view.