Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Disequilibrium Models: An Application to the Polish Credit Market

We propose a Bayesian approach for inference in a dynamic disequilibrium model. To circumvent the difficulties raised by the Maddala and Nelson (1974 Maddala , G. , Nelson , F. ( 1974 ). Maximum likelihood methods for models of markets in disequilibrium . Econometrica 42 ( 6 ): 1013 – 1030 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) specification in the dynamic case, we analyze a dynamic extended version of the disequilibrium model of Ginsburgh et al. (1980 Ginsburgh , V. , Tishler , A. , Zang , I. ( 1980 ). Alternative estimation methods for two regime models . European Economic Review 13 : 207 – 228 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We develop a Gibbs sampler based on the simulation of the missing observations. The feasibility of the approach is illustrated by an empirical analysis of the Polish credit market, for which we conduct a specification search using the posterior deviance criterion of Spiegelhalter et al. (2002 Spiegelhalter , D. J. , Best , N. G. , Carlin , B. P. , Van Der Linde , A. ( 2002 ). Bayesian measures of complexity and fit . Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Ser. B 64 : 583 – 639 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]).     

Asymptotic normality of frequency polygons for random fields

The purpose of this paper is to investigate asymptotic normality of the frequency polygon estimator of a stationary mixing random field indexed by multidimensional lattice points space Z^N$Z^N$. Appropriate choices of the bandwidths are found.     

Gambling Problems Among Community Cocaine Users

Cocaine use is highly prevalent and a major public health problem. While some studies have reported frequent comorbidity problems among cocaine users, few studies have included evaluation of gambling problems. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of gambling problems and compare those who were at-risk gamblers with non-problem gamblers in terms of mental health problems, substance use problems, and some risk factors (i.e. family antecedents, erroneous perceptions and coping strategies) among individuals who smoke or inject cocaine. A total of 424 smoked or injected cocaine users recruited through community-based programs in Montreal (Quebec) completed the questionnaire, including the Canadian Pathological Gambling Index, the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, the CAGE, and the Severity Dependence Scale. Of the sample, 18.4 % were considered at-risk gamblers, of whom 7.8 % had problems gambling and 10.6 % were moderate-risk gamblers. The at-risk group was more likely to have experienced a recent phobic disorder and alcohol problems than the non-problem group. A multivariate analysis showed that, compared to those who were non-problem gamblers, the at-risk ones were more likely to have lost a large sum of money when they first started gambling, believed that their luck would turn, and gambled in reaction to painful life events. These results indicate the need to include routines for screening to identify gambling problem among cocaine users.     

Active participation in preventionist professional practices: a specific ergonomics training course

Currently, the different forms of corporate management methods (quality circles, lean manufacturing, etc.) are usually based on employee mobilisation. Very often, the goal of this type of approach is at best, to ensure that employees embrace corporate projects, or otherwise to impose changes on them without taking into account the real work and difficulties that they face daily. However, do these employee solicitation methods converge with participatory approaches as envisaged by ergonomists and more generally, preventionists? Based on the observation that the activity of institutional preventionists evolves with regulatory constraints and work related to the monitoring of indicators, the implementation and steering of the participatory approach within companies may be a major lever for prevention. After describing the foundations of a participatory approach, this paper will present a training experiment aimed at implementing and promoting employee participation in prevention efforts. The content of this training is then analysed with regard to the balance between methodology and the use of trainees' narratives. The results of the training session are presented from the point of view of the development prospects for pedagogical tools and the organisation of the training.     

Ergonomics at Volkswagen Brasil. Multidisciplinary work to equalize health, productivity and quality

Following the technological developments and presented to the multidisciplinary processes as automakers, Volkswagen Brazil, represented by its ergonomists, through this paper, shows the importance of ergonomic efficiency of management applied to various levels of life of a product, since its creation to its final implementation on production lines.The preventive work of ergonomists during the processes leading to production of a vehicle is accomplished through assessments on a simulated system called the Digital Factory. Since the initial stages to final product delivery there is a need for a multidisciplinary aligning the concepts of ergonomics, productivity and quality of product. Industrial Engineering, Process Engineering, ergonomists and workers are involved in the analysis made through the Workshop's showing the importance of discussion between the various users of the systems. The processes of series are also equipped with a set of certifications flow of job and planned audits on items that describe processes and applied ergonomics.     

Sequential legislative lobbying

In this paper, we analyze the equilibrium of a sequential game-theoretical model of lobbying, due to Groseclose and Snyder (Am Polit Sci Rev 90:303–315, 1996), describing a legislature that vote over two alternatives, where two opposing lobbies compete by bidding for legislators’ votes. In this model, the lobbyist moving first suffers from a second mover advantage and will make an offer to a panel of legislators only if it deters any credible counter-reaction from his opponent, i.e., if he anticipates to win the battle. This paper departs from the existing literature in assuming that legislators care about the consequence of their votes rather than their votes per se. Our main focus is on the calculation of the smallest budget that the lobby moving first needs to win the game and on the distribution of this budget across the legislators. We study the impact of the key parameters of the game on these two variables and show the connection of this problem with the combinatorics of sets and notions from cooperative game theory.     

Comparing Immigration Policies: An Overview from the IMPALA Database

This paper introduces a method and preliminary findings from a database that systematically measures the character and stringency of immigration policies. Based on the selection of that data for nine countries between 1999 and 2008, we challenge the idea that any one country is systematically the most or least restrictive toward admissions. The data also reveal trends toward more complex and, often, more restrictive regulation since the 1990s, as well as differential treatment of groups, such as lower requirements for highly skilled than low‐skilled labor migrants. These patterns illustrate the IMPALA data and methods but are also of intrinsic importance to understanding immigration regulation.     

Profiling Donors of Blood,Money, and Time

Understanding donor profiles is crucial for donor relationship management. Whereas previous research has focused on profiling blood, money, or time donor segments separately, we define seven donor profiles based on their former donation behavior for blood, money, and time donation and compare them to non‐donors. Relying on representative data from the German Socio Economic Panel, we use an extensive set of characteristics that include sociodemographic, psychographic, health‐related, and geographical measures and simultaneously investigate profiles of donors for single and multiple donation forms and non‐donors by means of a multinomial logistic model. Our results reveal valuable insights for donor acquisition and retention strategies of nonprofit organizations along the identified profiling characteristics of donor segments. By this, our findings help nonprofit organization managers to better target single and multiple donors across three donation forms.