Exploring the care effects of multiple factors on the educational achievement of children looked after at home and away from home: an investigation of two Scottish local authorities

This paper reports the findings of a research project which explored the care factors that influence the educational achievement of looked‐after children. The project was innovative because it focused on children looked after at home and away from home. A mixed‐methods strategy was adopted to analyse data from two large Scottish local authorities. The project developed, what is to date, the largest dataset which includes variables for one‐fifth of children discharged from care in Scotland over a 5‐year period. The qualitative element of the project collected in‐depth data on the care and education experiences of looked‐after children and care leavers. The overall finding was that looked‐after children perform less well academically than their counterparts in the general school population. The empirical data indicated that factors such as placement type, reason for becoming looked after and age on becoming looked after were significant in determining educational achievement. Empirical results further indicated that looked‐after children suffered from discrimination and social exclusion in many areas of their lives, including school and where they lived.     

A new approach to stock price modelling and the efficiency of the Italian stock exchange

In this paper, we propose a new model of asset prices which takes account of the investment strategies of three different kinds of agents: the market-makers, who operate rationally on the basis of the asset fundamentals, the smart buy-and-sell agents, who intervene when the prices reach particular levels and the non-smart buy-and-sell agents, who trade infrequently, mainly following psychological motivations. The different behavior of these groups of agents can determine temporary inefficiences on financial markets and we show that, by considering these inefficiences, it is possible to improve forecasting of asset prices.     

Optimal design for epidemiological studies subject to designed missingness

In large epidemiological studies, budgetary or logistical constraints will typically preclude study investigators from measuring all exposures, covariates and outcomes of interest on all study subjects. We develop a flexible theoretical framework that incorporates a number of familiar designs such as case control and cohort studies, as well as multistage sampling designs. Our framework also allows for designed missingness and includes the option for outcome dependent designs. Our formulation is based on maximum likelihood and generalizes well known results for inference with missing data to the multistage setting. A variety of techniques are applied to streamline the computation of the Hessian matrix for these designs, facilitating the development of an efficient software tool to implement a wide variety of designs.     

The value of administrative data for longitudinal social research: a case study investigating income support receipt and relationship separation in Australia

ABSTRACT

In recent years, the Australian government has encouraged open access to administrative data, providing new opportunities for examining life course pathways and evaluating social policies. This paper demonstrates the importance of establishing partnerships in the use of administrative data for social research. In collaboration with the data custodian, we used administrative welfare data to investigate a policy-relevant topic: the association between income support receipt and relationship separation. Our results provided greater statistical power for detecting associations for minority groups than is possible with panel survey data, highlighting the benefits of administrative data for understanding the outcomes of population groups that are not well represented in surveys. The collaboration between university researchers and data custodians was critical to enable appropriate sharing of data for research and for accurate interpretation of the data and outcomes for relevance to policy.     

Failures of the reduction principle in an Ellsberg-type problem

Segal (1987) suggested that the Ellsberg paradox might be explained in terms of individuals mentally representing the decision problem as a two-stage lottery which they evaluated according to a non-expected utility model. This paper describes an experiment involving an explicitly two-stage analogue to an Ellsberg-type problem. This design substantially reduces the frequency of classic Ellsberg behaviour, but reveals other systematic violations of conventional theory. The paper discusses the particular patterns of choice and raises the more general problem of modelling individual decisions when the reduction principle does not hold.     

System of Systems Engineering and Risk Management of Extreme Events: Concepts and Case Study

The domain of risk analysis is expanded to consider strategic interactions among multiple participants in the management of extreme risk in a system of systems. These risks are fraught with complexity, ambiguity, and uncertainty, which pose challenges in how participants perceive, understand, and manage risk of extreme events. In the case of extreme events affecting a system of systems, cause‐and‐effect relationships among initiating events and losses may be difficult to ascertain due to interactions of multiple systems and participants (complexity). Moreover, selection of threats, hazards, and consequences on which to focus may be unclear or contentious to participants within multiple interacting systems (ambiguity). Finally, all types of risk, by definition, involve potential losses due to uncertain events (uncertainty). Therefore, risk analysis of extreme events affecting a system of systems should address complex, ambiguous, and uncertain aspects of extreme risk. To accomplish this, a system of systems engineering methodology for risk analysis is proposed as a general approach to address extreme risk in a system of systems. Our contribution is an integrative and adaptive systems methodology to analyze risk such that strategic interactions among multiple participants are considered. A practical application of the system of systems engineering methodology is demonstrated in part by a case study of a maritime infrastructure system of systems interface, namely, the Straits of Malacca and Singapore.     

Related party transactions under a contingency perspective

Related party transactions (RPTs) are transfers of resources, services or obligations between a reporting entity and a related party (IASB 2009); criteria for a related party definition may significantly differ among the various accounting and governance academic studies and regulatory principles, but they usually depend upon the ability to influ-ence contractual terms and conditions. The topic has been neglected for a long time. In the literature two theories prevail: (a) conflict of interests, considering these dealings as potentially harmful and carried out in the interest of directors; (b) efficient transaction hypothesis, describing them as sound economic exchanges. The paper examines both theories critically through a deductive approach, and also on the basis of their economic rationale. Then, a contingency perspective is suggested, underling how the effectiveness and the efficiency of the proposed solutions are strictly correlated to organizational contexts, institutional environments and governance practices. The study is largely based on a literature review and has different purposes: (a) to shed light on a topic, that, despite its potential impact, has not yet deserved great attention in governance studies; (b) to stress possible inconsistencies in the above mentioned theories, both, to some extent, ideologically biased and unable to offer a proper picture of these heterogeneous dealings; (c) to suggest a more balanced and pragmatic approach, less influ-enced by a suspicious attitude (typical of the conflict of interests theory), possibly more consistent with their economic rationale (as suggested by the efficient transactions hypothesis) as well as social fac-tors and governance practices.     

Depression and Missed Work among Informal Caregivers of Older Individuals with Dementia

Although providing informal care can negatively affect caregiver emotional health and lead to depression, the association between caregiver depression and missed work is unknown. We use data from the National Longitudinal Caregiver Survey to examine the relationship between caregiver depression and missed work among informal caregivers for older veterans with Alzheimer’s disease or vascular dementia. Two-part models are used to estimate the expected hours of work missed among working caregivers. Caregiver depression is statistically significantly associated with the likelihood and amount of time missed at work, resulting in an average of an extra half-day of work missed per month. While the effect of caregiver depression on work missed is modest, it represents another possible benefit from interventions to support caregivers.     

How accommodations affect the duration of post-injury employment spells

I examine the effects of accommodations on the duration of employment spells using a sample of workers reentering the work force after an occupational injury. Unlike previous research, I analyze the post-injury employment history, i.e., more than one employment spell. The results indicate that accommodations have a smaller effect on employment duration than previous studies for workers who have not left their jobs. In addition, only certain types of accommodations, flexible work schedules and modified workplaces, are associated with significant increases in employment duration. The implications of these estimates for disability policy are also briefly discussed.