Sensitivity Analysis in Gaussian Bayesian Networks Using a Divergence Measure

This article develops a method for computing the sensitivity analysis in a Gaussian Bayesian network. The measure presented is based on the Kullback–Leibler divergence and is useful to evaluate the impact of prior changes over the posterior marginal density of the target variable in the network. We find that some changes do not disturb the posterior marginal density of interest. Finally, we describe a method to compare different sensitivity measures obtained depending on where the inaccuracy was. An example is used to illustrate the concepts and methods presented.     

Small-Sample Comparisons for Goodness-of-Fit Statistics in One-Way Multinomials with Composite Hypotheses

The small-sample behaviour of power-divergence goodness-of-fit statistics with composite hypotheses was evaluated with multinomial models of up to five cells and up to three parameters. Their performance was assessed by comparing asymptotic test sizes with exact test sizes obtained by enumeration in the near right tail, where 1-?∈?(0.90,?0.95], and in the far right tail, where 1-?∈?(0.95,?0.99]. The study addressed all combinations of power-diparse JAS312HH01.sgmvergence estimates of indices ν?∈?{-1/2,?0,?1/3,?1/2,?2/3,?1,?3/ 2} and power-divergence statistics of indices λ?∈?{-1/2,?0,?1/3,?1/2,?2/3,?1,?3/2}. The results indicate that the asymptotic approximation is sufficiently accurate (by the criterion that the average exact size is no larger than ±10% of the nominal asymptotic test size) in the near right tail when ν=0 and λ=1/2, and in the far right tail when ν=0 and λ=1/3, in both cases providing that the smallest expectation in the composite hypothesis exceeds 5. The only exception to this rule is the case of models that render a near-equiprobable composite hypothesis on the boundaries of the parameter space, where average exact sizes are usually quite different from nominal sizes despite the fact that the smallest expectation in these conditions is usually well above 5.     

Peru's coming baby boomlet

There are grounds for reconsidering the United Nations' population projections for Peru. These projections assume that fertility will continue to decline after 1990 in a smooth and uninterrupted manner, but they ignore several factors related to recovery from the economic and political crises of the 1980s that could significantly alter the pace of decline. The alternative projections we present consider the possibility that Peru's fertility decline will temporarily slow. This alternative hypothesis is conservative in the sense that increases in birth rates are not anticipated, but substantial differences in population size and age structure materialize nonetheless. Moreover, these differences have important implications for future planning in terms of the number of children needing primary health care and education and the number of young adults seeking first-time employment.The authors are grateful to Maryann Belanger, Luis Rosero-Bixby, and Anne Marie Wills for helpful comments, to Wayne Appleton for computer support, and to Terence Kelly for graphics design.     

Overeducation as Status Inconsistency: Effects on Job Satisfaction,Subjective Well-Being and the Image of Social Stratification

Social Indicators Research - In this article, we aim to study the effects of the experience of overeducation, understood as a specific form of status inconsistency, in three areas: job...     

An Outcomes-Based Assessment of Quality of Life in Social Services

The goal of this article consists of describing the calibration of an instrument to assess quality of life-related personal outcomes using Rasch analysis. The sample was composed of 3.029 recipients of social services from Catalonia (Spain) and was selected using a probabilistic polietapic sample design. Results related to unidimensionality, item and person separation reliability, calibration, items’ level of difficulty, response categories and differential item functioning by gender and type of collective are provided and point out the general fit of the data to the model. However, it is recommended to include more difficult items and eliminate one that seems not to be adequate.     

Poetry in motion: protest songwriting as strategic resource (Portugal,circa 1974)

In this article, we use protest songs written in Portugal in the periods surrounding the Carnations Revolution to suggest that artists have the capacity to use their artistic discourses as strategic resources, attempting to shape socio‐political reality. We identify three periods in the Portuguese revolution wherein this instrumental use of art becomes patent. We further suggest that organisational managers should take into account the subjective artistic reality, especially in periods when it can affect the organisational context.     

Spanish version of the Parenting Sense of Competence scale: Evidence of reliability and validity

Perceived parenting competence influences parenting practices and is a decisive factor in child development and health. There is a lack of valid and reliable tools in Spain to measure perceived parenting competence. The objective was to adapt the Parenting Sense of Competence scale (PSOC) and analyse its psychometric properties in a sample of 600 mothers of children aged between 6 and 12 months old from Spain. The PSOC was translated into Spanish (PSOC‐E) using a standard forward‐ and back‐translation process. Internal consistency, factor structure, and comparisons between known groups and correlations with other variables were assessed. Confirmatory factor analysis confirmed the original two‐factor structure: satisfaction and efficacy. The PSOC‐E showed good internal consistency (Cronbach's α = .85). Perceived parenting competence was negatively associated (P < .01) with parental depression, fatigue, and parental stress and positively associated (P < .01) with dyadic adjustment. An equivalent Spanish version of the PSOC was obtained with good evidence of reliability and validity.     

The Interpretation of Multiracial Status and Its Relation to Social Engagement and Psychological Well-Being

This research examines how multiracial individuals chose to identify themselves with respect to their racial identity and how this choice relates to their self-reported psychological well-being (e.g., self-esteem, positive affect) and level of social engagement (e.g., citizenship behaviors, group alienation). High school students who belong to multiple racial/ethnic groups (N = 182) were asked to indicate the group with which they primarily identify. Participants were then classified as identifying with a low-status group (i.e., Black or Latino), a high-status group (i.e., Asian or White), or multiple groups (e.g., Black and White, etc.). Results showed that, compared with multiracial individuals who identified primarily with a low- or high-status group, those who identified with multiple groups tended to report either equal or higher psychological well-being and social engagement. Potential explanations and implications for understanding multiracial identity are discussed.     

How feedback about leadership potential impacts ambition,organizational commitment,and performance

In the present research we report results from two experimental studies that examine how feedback about leadership potential impacts leadership ambition, organizational commitment, and performance. Study 1 used an experimental vignette methodology that controls for prior performance. Results show that individuals who receive feedback that they have low potential to be a future leader have lower ambition and organizational commitment relative to those who receive feedback that they have high potential to be a future leader. Study 2 provides evidence of the causal behavioral effects of feedback about leadership potential using a real task effort environment. Results show that participants informed to be unlikely future leaders display lower performance in a subsequent task than participants informed to be likely future leaders. The findings from the two studies demonstrate that information about leadership potential affects subsequent ambition to become leaders as well as performance. We discuss the implications of these findings for the importance of followership, talent management, and leadership succession.