Two phase parametric and probabilistic NPV calculations, with possible deferral of disposal of UK nuclear waste as an example

This paper illustrates the value of several particular features of a first phase parametric approach to discounted cash flow (DCF) decision analysis when significant uncertainty is involved. It also illustrates the value of second phase probabilistic approaches to selected parameters for five quite different example reasons. The most controversial example reason concerns the discount rate. The particular example used to illustrate both phases may stimulate general interest because of the important issues involved, but it is argued that the two phase approach as a whole has a wide range of applications for decisions large and small.     

The Nigerian Civil Registration and Vital Statistics System: Contexts,Institutions, Operation

Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) Systems are playing increasing roles in national and global data infrastructure, facilitating the achievement of key developmental goals. The performance of CRVS systems in many developing countries including Nigeria is sub optimal and information on their structure and operations scanty. This paper characterizes the statutory, institutional, and operational elements and social contexts of the Nigerian CRVS System. It includes a context analysis of the system and a review of improvement strategies and interventions. The paper shows that the Nigerian CRVS System is built on viable statutory and institutional platforms—the constitutional enshrinement of: universal, compulsory and continuous civil registration and, a central registration institution—the National Population Commission (NPC). NPC has registration hierarchy and infrastructure deployed at every level of political administration and mechanisms for efficient coordination of registration and production of vital statistics on live-births, deaths and stillbirths amongst other vital events. The major weaknesses of the system include inadequate financing and deployment of registration facilities, conflicting statutes and institutional arrangements for the registration of key events like death and stillbirths. Other weaknesses include intra-organizational conflicts in resource allocation and weak ICT infrastructure within the NPC. These are compounded by overarching contextual issues namely registration unfriendly sociocultural norms, weak national data infrastructure, systemic corruption, poverty and undeveloped civic culture. Domestic initiatives and interventions to improve the system have focused on birth registration, while multilateral interventions have only made a modest impact on the system. Thus, holistic in-country improvement initiatives supported with robust interventions are imperative to overcome weaknesses in the Nigerian CRVS system. However fundamental improvements in CRVS systems in developing countries like Nigeria may likely only follow sustainable solutions to overarching contextual issues especially poor infrastructure, weak institutions, poverty and systemic corruption.     

Academic Entrepreneurship: Time for a Rethink?

Academic entrepreneurship, which refers to efforts undertaken by universities to promote commercialization on campus and in surrounding regions of the university, has changed dramatically in recent years. Two key consequences of this change are that more stakeholders have become involved in academic entrepreneurship and that universities have become more ‘strategic’ in their approach to this activity. The authors assert that the time is ripe to rethink academic entrepreneurship. Specifically, theoretical and empirical research on academic entrepreneurship needs to take account of these changes, so as to improve the rigour and relevance of future studies on this topic. We outline such a framework and provide examples of key research questions that need to be addressed to broaden understanding of academic entrepreneurship.     

Technical and vocational education and training in Uganda: A critical analysis

This article undertakes a diagnostic study of the Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) sub‐sector in Uganda, with a view to characterizing the sub‐sector and identifying its potential strengths and weakness. We undertook a cross‐sectional pre‐survey of purposively selected key stakeholders in the TVET sub‐sector. We selected performance indicators following their importance in influencing the TVET reform process. Both qualitative and quantitative data was solicited from the stakeholders. Quantitative data was collected through stakeholder‐specific structured questionnaires, whilst qualitative data was collected through desk review and field visits, individual focused interviews and focus group discussions. Our findings indicate that financing and planning constraints have resulted in poor quality equipment, under‐ and ill‐trained staff, limited adoption of a competence‐based education and training (CBET) curriculum, not to mention the supervision inadequacies of TVET institutions. Besides, the limited TVET sub‐sector interaction with the private sector has incapacitated TVET curriculum development to nurture skills demanded by the private sector. Furthermore, backward technology use in the private sector has equally inhibited the success of student attachment programmes. Finally, legal ambiguities have perpetuated a qualification jungle and overlapping curricula.     

No Matter What: A Qualitative Analysis of How LGBTQ Families and Allies Define Family through an Interactive Art Project

ABSTRACT

The current study solicits individuals’ artistic depictions and written definitions of family and provides comparisons to existing conceptualizations of family in communication research. Attendees of a Midwestern pride festival took part in an interactive art display, creating a visual representation of their own family on one side of a card and writing their definition of family on the other side. Both images and definitions focused on the ways family members’ behaviors construct family. Participants’ written responses describe family as unconditional, particularly in terms of love, support, and acceptance.     

A visualization method measuring the performance of biomarkers for guiding treatment decisions

Biomarkers that predict efficacy and safety for a given drug therapy become increasingly important for treatment strategy and drug evaluation in personalized medicine. Methodology for appropriately identifying and validating such biomarkers is critically needed, although it is very challenging to develop, especially in trials of terminal diseases with survival endpoints. The marker‐by‐treatment predictiveness curve serves this need by visualizing the treatment effect on survival as a function of biomarker for each treatment. In this article, we propose the weighted predictiveness curve (WPC). Based on the nature of the data, it generates predictiveness curves by utilizing either parametric or nonparametric approaches. Especially for nonparametric predictiveness curves, by incorporating local assessment techniques, it requires minimum model assumptions and provides great flexibility to visualize the marker‐by‐treatment relationship. WPC can be used to compare biomarkers and identify the one with the highest potential impact. Equally important, by simultaneously viewing several treatment‐specific predictiveness curves across the biomarker range, WPC can also guide the biomarker‐based treatment regimens. Simulations representing various scenarios are employed to evaluate the performance of WPC. Application on a well‐known liver cirrhosis trial sheds new light on the data and leads to discovery of novel patterns of treatment biomarker interactions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On hysteretic vector autoregressive model with applications

This paper proposes a new hysteretic vector autoregressive (HVAR) model in which the regime switching may be delayed when the hysteresis variable lies in a hysteresis zone. We integrate an adapted multivariate Student-t distribution from amending the scale mixtures of normal distributions. This HVAR model allows for a higher degree of flexibility in the degrees of freedom for each time series. We use the proposed model to test for a causal relationship between any two target time series. Using posterior odds ratios, we overcome the limitations of the classical approach to multiple testing. Both simulated and real examples herein help illustrate the suggested methods. We apply the proposed HVAR model to investigate the causal relationship between the quarterly growth rates of gross domestic product of United Kingdom and United States. Moreover, we check the pairwise lagged dependence of daily PM2.5 levels in three districts of Taipei.     

Unclaimed Prize Information Biases Perceptions of Winning in Scratch Card Gambling

Unclaimed prize information (i.e., the number of prizes still available to be won) is information commonly provided to scratch card gamblers. However, unless the number of tickets remaining to be purchased is also provided, this information is uninformative. Despite its lack of utility in assisting gamblers in choosing the most favourable type of scratch card to play, we hypothesized that unclaimed prize information would bias participants’ judgments within a scratch card gambling context. In Experiment 1 (N?=?201), we showed that participants are influenced by this information such that they felt more likely to win, were more excited to play, and preferred to hypothetically purchase more of the scratch card with the greatest number of unclaimed prizes. In Experiment 2 (N?=?201), we attempted to ameliorate this bias by providing participants with the number of tickets remaining to be purchased and equating the payback percentages of all three games. The bias, although attenuated, still persisted in these conditions. Finally, in Experiment 3 (N?=?200), we manipulated the hypothetical scratch cards such that games with the highest number of unclaimed prizes were the least favourable, and vice versa. As in Experiment 2, participants still favoured cards with greater numbers of unclaimed prizes. Possible mechanisms underlying this bias are discussed. In conclusion, across three experiments, we demonstrate that salient unclaimed prize information is capable of exerting a strong effect over judgments related to scratch card games.