The Relationship between Birth History and Current Fertility in Developing Countries

The aim of this research is to find a model of fertility in terms of ‘birth-history’ factors which is common to a diversity of developing countries. Data for nine WFS countries are analysed. The analysis is essentially a birth-interval life-table analysis with regression where factor effects are allowed to vary smoothly over time since previous birth. Strong evidence for a common model is found, with surprisingly similar patterns in the parameters emerging for each country. The main components of the model may be interpreted in terms of ‘tempo’ of previous reproduction, age-related infecundity, and birth-order-related fertility control.     

Ordinary least squares estimation of simultaneous equation systems with trended data: further results

The paper gives sufficient conditions for the consistency and asymptotic normality of OLS in linear simultaneous equation systems with trend in some exogenous variables, extending the results of Krämer (1981, 1984) to more general types of trend. When con- sistent, OLS is also shown to have the same limiting distribution as any k-class estimator with a stochastically bounded k, and to produce a consistent estimate of the error variance in the equation.     

Marginal-frechet-bounds for multidimensional distribution functions

In this paper for an n-dimensional distribution function F and each natural number m, m<n, n-dimensional distribution functions F^l(m) and F^y(m) are constructed such that the m-dimensional marginal distributions are the same as for F and the following inequality holds F^l(m) ≦ F ≦ F^u(m)     

A Note on Confidence Bands for the Logistic Response Curve

A problem in logit analysis is the interval estimation of the logistic response curve. Scheffé's method is used to obtain confidence bands for the logistic response function for any number of explanatory variables. This method is computationally easier and more general than a previously reported method.     

Delinking of economic growth and materials turnover

National material flow analyses and materials balances are indispensable sources of information with respect to the operationalizalion of sustainable development. Both of these instruments are already employed in official statistics in Germany and Japan, and other countries—especially member slates of the European Union—are likely to follow suit. Because of the preparatory stages of work that have already been carried out, Austria is in an excellent position to assume a leading role in international concerted action. From 1970 to 1990 total materials flow through Austrian society has approximately increased by one third. As can be seen from changes in the amount of primary energy used during this period, economic growth in physical terms and value added in production decoupled slightly, and the same is true for the use of materials. Since 1970, materials input per unit of GDP (material intensity) decreased by 25%. This implies that relative gains in efficiency are compensated by the annual increases in the use of materials which, by and large, are caused by few yet massive ‘strategic’ material flows of steel, cement, wood, paper/pulp, sand, gravel and crushed stone. The empirical findings suggest that delinking of economic growth from the metabolism of human society should be discussed more carefully. The concept of ‘delinking’ involves two alternative perspectives of development differing from each other with respect to their ecological effects. The analysis may either focus upon absolute changes in materials throughput or on the relative changes of materials throughput per unit of output. It is strongly recommended, therefore, to distinguish clearly between relative and absolute productivity of resources. Branch analyses confirmed, once again, that the information contained in material indicators related to value‐added concepts is relatively insignificant when it comes to evaluation of the social ‘pressures upon the environment’.     

An Application of Response Surface Methodology to the Atari® Miniature Golf Video Game

Response surface methodology is used to optimize a player's performance on the Atari® Miniature Golf computer video game. Because of the nature of the fitted response surface, a direct optimization procedure is used to estimate the optimum operating conditions.     

Social Support from Sponsorships as a Moderator of Acculturative Stress: Predictors of Effects on Refugees and Asylum Seekers

N = 63 refugees and asylum seekers, 27 women and 36 men with a mean age of 33.08 years (SD = 10.3) from Chechnya and Afghanistan were granted sponsorships for six months and were randomized to an intervention and a waiting-list control group. Only participants with a history of traumatization benefited from the intervention. For the traumatized sub-sample, sponsorships led to a significant and stable decrease in anxiety, depression, and psychological problems as compared to the control group, with effect sizes comparable to those of psychotherapy. The effects being rather palliative than instrumental, however, sponsorships did not instigate improvements in acculturation, societal contact, or coping capability. Women benefited more from the intervention than men, and Afghans more than Chechen.     

东方智慧文学和创世神话——兼谈对古希腊宇宙开创论的影响

我们对柏拉图之前的希腊情况知之甚少,然而公元前6世纪出现的一种特殊文学样式留下了宝贵的历史资料。在这个时期曾经有一些视野较为宽阔的关于宇宙及其起源的书籍问世,它们在特殊的环境中获得繁荣。这些书籍主要由两条支流——思想和文学汇集而成,它们超越了狭小的地域边界,广为流传的是：智慧的宣言和宇宙开创的神话。到目前为止,我们没有理由将希腊人——荷马,赫西俄德或俄耳甫斯神话的宇宙发生论从其东方副本（极相似的人或物）中分离出来。很明显,它们出自同一个家庭,而且有不少证据显示出前苏格拉底的哲学家们依然在步东方宇宙发生论的后尘。