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51.
52.
Lyle D. Burgoon Michelle Angrish Natalia Garcia-Reyero Nathan Pollesch Anze Zupanic Edward Perkins 《Risk analysis》2020,40(3):512-523
Adverse outcome pathway Bayesian networks (AOPBNs) are a promising avenue for developing predictive toxicology and risk assessment tools based on adverse outcome pathways (AOPs). Here, we describe a process for developing AOPBNs. AOPBNs use causal networks and Bayesian statistics to integrate evidence across key events. In this article, we use our AOPBN to predict the occurrence of steatosis under different chemical exposures. Since it is an expert-driven model, we use external data (i.e., data not used for modeling) from the literature to validate predictions of the AOPBN model. The AOPBN accurately predicts steatosis for the chemicals from our external data. In addition, we demonstrate how end users can utilize the model to simulate the confidence (based on posterior probability) associated with predicting steatosis. We demonstrate how the network topology impacts predictions across the AOPBN, and how the AOPBN helps us identify the most informative key events that should be monitored for predicting steatosis. We close with a discussion of how the model can be used to predict potential effects of mixtures and how to model susceptible populations (e.g., where a mutation or stressor may change the conditional probability tables in the AOPBN). Using this approach for developing expert AOPBNs will facilitate the prediction of chemical toxicity, facilitate the identification of assay batteries, and greatly improve chemical hazard screening strategies. 相似文献
53.
Natalia Ermasova Lam D. Nguyen Dina Clark Sergey Ermasov 《Public Organization Review》2018,18(3):299-312
This study examines the impacts of different types of experience on management skills of working adults in Russia. The study is based on a sample of 527 MBA students, line and middle managers covering 32 regions in 13 different industries in Russia. This study proves that work experience, management experience, and government experience are significant factors in their technical, human, and conceptual skills. Human skills scores are significantly higher for all groups than group with no management experience. Score for human skills increased with years of government experience only, but not with working or management years of experience. 相似文献
54.
Natalia M. Rojas Hirokazu Yoshikawa Lisa Gennetian Mayra Lemus Rangel Samantha Melvin Kimberly Noble 《Journal of Children and Poverty》2020,26(1):64-84
ABSTRACTLittle is understood about how an unconditional cash transfer might operate and affect behavior among low-income parents of infants in the United States. We investigate these questions using data from a random-assignment pilot study (N?=?30) in which unconditional cash transfers were distributed monthly on debit cards to two groups of low-income parents in New York City during the first 12 months of their newborns’ lives. Mothers were randomized to receive either $100 per month or $20 per month. Mothers distinguished spending the cash transfer on essentials vs. extras, such as going out to dinner with family. The monthly cash transfer “tided them over,” even at the lower amount of $20, especially when income from other sources ran short at the end of the month. Some mothers reported saving money for unexpected expenses. 相似文献
55.
Although some emphasize the integrative character of marriage, others argue that marriage undermines relations with extended kin, including aging parents. Utilizing NSFH data (N= 6,108), we find that married women and men have less intense intergenerational ties than the never married and the divorced: The married are less likely to live with parents, stay in touch, and give or receive emotional, financial, and practical help. These differences hold even when we control for structural characteristics, including time demands, needs and resources, and demographic and extended family characteristics. We conclude that marriage is a greedy institution for both women and men. Given the inadequacy of structural explanations, we suggest that cultural explanations for this greediness should be explored. 相似文献
56.
Natalia Santamaría 《Production and Operations Management》2015,24(1):147-158
In procurement auctions, the object for sale is a contract, bidders are suppliers, and the bid taker is a buyer. The suppliers bidding for the contract are usually the current supplier (the incumbent) and a group of potential new suppliers (the entrants). As the buyer has an ongoing relationship with the incumbent, he needs to adjust the bids of the entrants to include non‐price attributes, such as the switching costs. The buyer can run a scoring auction, in which suppliers compete on the adjusted bids or scores, or, he can run a buyer‐determined auction, in which suppliers compete on the price, and the buyer adjusts a certain number of the bids with the non‐price attributes after the auction to determine the winner. Unless the incumbent has a significant cost advantage over the entrants, I find that the scoring auction yields a lower average cost for the buyer, if the non‐price attributes are available. If the non‐price attributes are difficult or expensive to obtain, the buyer could run a buyer‐determined auction adjusting only the lowest price bid. 相似文献
57.
Christian Lahusen Natalia Schulz Paolo Roberto Graziano 《International Journal of Social Welfare》2013,22(3):300-309
Since the beginning of the millennium, the institutions of the European Union have intensified their political efforts to combat youth employment. Youth‐specific policy initiatives were launched after the financial and economic crisis of 2008, and the overall subsequent rise of unemployment rates among young people. In this article, we analyse and assess these developments on the basis of an analysis of European policy documents and interviews. Our conclusions are twofold. One, we argue that the Europe 2020 Strategy and its flagship initiatives devoted to youth do not constitute a new policy field or approach, but are rather the outcome of an incrementalist logic of policy development. Two, the European youth strategy is clearly committed to activation, and it pushes policy developments towards a minimalist policy approach of precarious protection. Both developments are explained by the actor constellations and path dependencies of the European policy arena. 相似文献
58.
Natalia Naydenova 《Slavonica》2013,19(1-2):37-48
ABSTRACTOriginally connected with the idea of Moscow as the Third Rome and the universal Christian idea of an Empire of Faith, Holy Rus (literally ‘Holy Russia’) has developed today into a transcendental concept of a unifying national force and inter-confessional dialogue based on common moral and spiritual values. The discourse of Russia’s civilizational identity has emerged with new vigor against a background of national and social disintegration. The idea promoted by the state and the Russian Orthodox Church is that Orthodoxy as a quintessence of fundamental moral values is destined to unite the peoples separated by state borders under the auspices of Holy Rus. The core of the civilizational perception is constituted by the supranational nature of Russkiy Mir (literally ‘Russian World’) based on the idea of sobornost. The research is based on the analysis of speeches delivered by President Putin and Patriarch Cyril dedicated to identity issues. The author argues that this official rhetoric is aimed at redefining the place of the Russian Orthodox Church vis-à-vis both Western modernity and domestic secularism within the context of its recovery as an institution after decades of oppression. 相似文献
59.
Stefan Englert François Mercier Elizabeth A. Pilling Victoria Homer Christina Habermehl Stefan Zimmermann Natalia Kan-Dobrosky 《Pharmaceutical statistics》2023,22(5):921-937
The addendum of the ICH E9 guideline on the statistical principles for clinical trials introduced the estimand framework. The framework is designed to strengthen the dialog between different stakeholders, to introduce greater clarity in the clinical trial objectives and to provide alignment between the estimand and statistical analysis. Estimand framework related publications thus far have mainly focused on randomized clinical trials. The intention of the Early Development Estimand Nexus (EDEN), a task force of the cross-industry Oncology Estimand Working Group ( www.oncoestimand.org ), is to apply it to single arms Phase 1b or Phase 2 trials designed to detect a treatment-related efficacy signal, typically measured by objective response rate. Key recommendations regarding the estimand attributes include that in a single arm early clinical trial, the treatment attribute should start when the first dose is received by the participant. Focusing on the estimation of an absolute effect, the population-level summary measure should reflect only the property used for the estimation. Another major component introduced in the ICH E9 addendum is the definition of intercurrent events and the associated possible ways to handle them. Different strategies reflect different clinical questions of interest that can be answered based on the journeys an individual subject can take during a trial. We provide detailed strategy recommendations for intercurrent events typically seen in early-stage oncology. We highlight where implicit assumptions should be made transparent as whenever follow-up is suspended, a while-on-treatment strategy is implied. 相似文献
60.
Natalia Mamonova 《Rural sociology》2016,81(3):316-342
This article applies the concept of “naive monarchism” (i.e., the traditional peasant expressions of reverence for the tsar as their benefactor) to study contemporary rural politics in authoritarian Russia. While Russia is not a monarchy, and its rural dwellers are not traditional illiterate peasants, the veneration of its leader manifests itself in many rural grievances. I analyze three types of rural politics that have traits of naive monarchism: written petitions to the president, rural pickets and delegations to the Kremlin, and geographical renaming in honor of Vladimir Putin. Grievances, voiced in this way, are rarely subjects of repression from above, as they reinforce presidential authority and the existing order. This raises the question of whether rural dwellers faithfully believe in a benevolent president or intentionally exploit their subordinate position and Putin's image as the present‐day tsar. Whether sincere or strategic, these rural politics aim to enforce the existing state commitments. Although they are unable to challenge the status quo, they provide rural dwellers with a means to remedy occasional local injustices. 相似文献