Estimable Versions of Griffiths' Measure of Association

Many techniques have been proposed for measuring the degree of association between a pair of random variables X and Y. However, the measures often suffer from two drawbacks: they are difficult to calculate when the joint distribution of (X, Y) is known, and difficult to estimate when the joint distribution is unknown. In the present paper we present two modifications of a measure proposed by Griffiths (1972), and show that they exhibit neither of these deficiencies.     

The potential of social indicators: Minimum conditions for impact at the national level as suggested by a study of the use of ‘social indicators’ 73

Empirical evidence is presented which suggests that the use of social indicators among upper level government officials in the United States is minimal at present. Further, the level of use is not likely to be increased by improved measurement procedures, aesthetically improved packaging, or more widespread dissemination of such information among persons who influence policy decisions. The power of such information can be expected to be no greater than that of ‘mere’ statistics unless deliberate effort is made to institutionalize the importance of social indicators into government operations in conjunction with policy planning, goal setting, and commitment to the use of indicators as a system of national evaluation of progress toward the achievement of societal objectives. Several recommendations are made to develop the potential of social indicators and to increase their creative and useful application in matters of public policy at the national level.     

Do expressive mothers have expressive children? The role of socialization in children's affect expression

The effects of maternal expressiveness and children's gender on children's nonverbal expressiveness were assessed in two settings. In the laboratory, 30 boys and 30 girls of kindergarten age were unobtrusively videotaped while talking about happy, sad, and fearful experiences and while experiencing three social situations designed to elicit happy, disappointed, and apprehensive feelings. Videotapes were rated for emotion expression, using global ratings and EMFACS codes. In school, teachers rated these children's expression of four discrete emotions. In both the laboratory and school settings children were more positively expressive than negatively so, and positive and negative expressiveness were unrelated. In the laboratory children's positive expressiveness was consistent across the three social situations, but negative expressiveness varied across affective context. In both settings, children of low-expressive mothers were more positively expressive than children of high-expressive mothers, who tended to be more negatively expressive than children of low-expressive mothers. The difference in negative expression appeared most striking for anger. Gender was not predictive of children's expressiveness in either setting     

There Will Always Be a New Federalism

American federalism is strongly operative and very much alive!Above all, it is opportunistic. It changes over time dependingon the relative power and goals of major interests in the society.Currently, federalism has been rediscovered by liberals. Thisarticle describes the latest "New Federalism" and discussesthe values of U.S. federalism at the state and grass roots'levels as well as the ways it has changed historically and hasserved as a force for public sector growth and the accretionof governmental functions and services.     

Is Speeding a Form of Gambling in Adolescents?

Speeding is a major contributor to motor vehicle accidents, which are the leading cause of death in adolescents. This study compares the extent to which adolescents with gambling behavior and substance use reported driving over the posted speed limits (“speeding”). Florida adolescents ages 13–17 (n = 1051) were surveyed, and asked about gambling activities, problems related to gambling, substance use, demographic questions, and speeding. Of the 562 respondents who were drivers, the gender distribution was 52.1% male and 47.9% female. Of those respondents, 76.9% were Caucasian, 6.8% were African American, 10.1% were Hispanic, and 6.1% were Native American/Asian/Other. Simple correlation analysis revealed that self-reported speeding is significantly related to gambling behavior and substance use. When a linear regression model was used, four factors showed the most significant influence on self-reported speeding: past year gambling tendency, age, trouble with the police due to drinking, and tranquilizer usage. Gambling behavior and high-risk speeding (driving ≥ 10 mph over speed limit) also were noted to be positively correlated. Our data indicate a relationship between risky driving, gambling, and other risk-taking behaviors in adolescents, and support the hypothesis that speeding may be a form of gambling behavior in this age group.     

Seroadaptive Strategies of Vancouver Gay and Bisexual Men in a Treatment as Prevention Environment

British Columbia’s treatment as prevention policy has provided free access to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) to all HIV-positive provincial residents since 1996. One outcome is an increase in HIV-positive gay and bisexual men (GBM) with suppressed viral loads. Previous cross-sectional analyses indicated that some Vancouver GBM now recognize condomless anal sex with men on HAART who report a suppressed viral load as a seroadaptive strategy. To test the hypothesis that this new strategy, termed viral load sorting (VLS), is recognized and used among by GBM in the Momentum Health Study, we analyzed longitudinal data for HIV-negative/unknown (n = 556) and HIV-positive (n = 218) serostatus participants. Analyses indicated that both groups reported VLS, and that serostatus and Treatment Optimism Scale scores were significant determinants in frequency and use. Results exemplify the medicalization of sex and Rogers’ Diffusion Of Preventative Innovations Model, and they have important implications for HIV research and GBM sexual decision-making.     

Twitter,incivility, and presidential communication: A theoretical incursion into spectacle and power

ABSTRACT

By approaching civility as an operational logic for democracy, we ask how incivility is a strategy related to power and domination, particularly from the president of the United States. We propose that Twitter is part of an infrastructure of incivility, through which structures and discursive mechanisms contribute to a devaluation of normative democratic discourses. Spectacle provides a theoretical framework to contextualize the forces at play in mediating our relations. Using President Trump’s Twitter use as a case study, we offer four propositions that together formulate a framework for theorizing the strategic use and deployment of incivility as an increasingly legitimate, yet problematic tool for democratic governance.     

A Probabilistic Model of the Economic Risk to Britain's Railway Network from Bridge Scour During Floods

Scour (localized erosion by water) is an important risk to bridges, and hence many infrastructure networks, around the world. In Britain, scour has caused the failure of railway bridges crossing rivers in more than 50 flood events. These events have been investigated in detail, providing a data set with which we develop and test a model to quantify scour risk. The risk analysis is formulated in terms of a generic, transferrable infrastructure network risk model. For some bridge failures, the severity of the causative flood was recorded or can be reconstructed. These data are combined with the background failure rate, and records of bridges that have not failed, to construct fragility curves that quantify the failure probability conditional on the severity of a flood event. The fragility curves generated are to some extent sensitive to the way in which these data are incorporated into the statistical analysis. The new fragility analysis is tested using flood events simulated from a spatial joint probability model for extreme river flows for all river gauging sites in Britain. The combined models appear robust in comparison with historical observations of the expected number of bridge failures in a flood event. The analysis is used to estimate the probability of single or multiple bridge failures in Britain's rail network. Combined with a model for passenger journey disruption in the event of bridge failure, we calculate a system‐wide estimate for the risk of scour failures in terms of passenger journey disruptions and associated economic costs.     

When do stories change our minds? Narrative persuasion about social problems

Scholars in a number of disciplines have sought to assess the power of reading or viewing a personal story to modify people's beliefs. However, the research, which has been pursued under diverse programs, has produced conflicting findings. We focus on the persuasiveness of personal stories about problems that are structural (rather than individual) and whose solution requires government action. Overall, the research suggests that although personal stories can overcome people's tendency to resist new information, they often do not do so. People's preexisting beliefs, assumptions, and stereotypes affect their willingness to be absorbed by a story, to empathize with the stories' protagonists, and to endorse the message communicated by the story. We argue also for a sociological perspective on narrative persuasion, one which, unlike the mostly experimental research conducted so far, pays attention to the context in which people encounter stories and to the norms shaping people's assessment of a story as credible, relevant, and important.