Welfare reform and changes in the economic well-being of children*

Since the implementation of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program in late-1996, welfare rolls have declined by more than half. This paper explores whether improvements in the economic well-being of children have accompanied this dramatic reduction in welfare participation. Further, we examine the degree to which the success or failure of welfare reform has been shared equally among families of varying educational background. We analyze data from the March Current Population Surveys (CPS) over the years 1988 through 2001. Specifically, we link data for families with children who are interviewed in adjacent years and determine whether their economic circumstances either improved or deteriorated. We use two alternative approaches to address this general issue: a variety of regression models and a difference-in-differences methodology. These approaches provide consistent answers. In a bivariate framework TANF is associated with higher incomes; but this association becomes insignificant in the presence of business cycle controls. We also determine that children who were poor at an initial time period benefit differently, depending on their parents' educational attainment level. Poor children with parents who do not have a high school degree are significantly worse off in the TANF era, relative to the era prior to welfare reform, than are poor children of more educated parents.     

Tracing the Density Impulse in Rural Settlement Systems: A Quantitative Analysis of the Factors Underlying Rural Population Density Across South-Eastern Australia, 1981–2001

Rural population density has a very significant independent influence over important socio-economic and demographic characteristics of developed world rural communities. Additionally, it is a fundamental variable in public policy and planning, both expressing and influencing the relative cost-efficiency of servicing populations. Yet density is itself produced by more fundamental qualities (e.g. environmental resources, nature and time of colonisation) which may themselves change over time. Treating rural population density as a dependent variable produced by a wide variety of factors, we build and test two causal models that attempt to explain the observed pattern of rural densities across south-eastern Australia (n = 414 communities). We distinguish between a “productivist” model—applicable for most of white Australia’s history—and a consumptionist model that takes account of recent counter-urbanisation trends. These models are applied to the entire study area and, in recognition of the study area’s internal heterogeneity, to five clusters of communities. In the drier inland and remoter zones, the productivist model exhibits the greatest explanatory power, while in the more accessible and well-watered “multifunctional” zones, an expanded model that incorporates a measure of “amenity” produces the best results. The research finds that simple environmental factors, coupled with relative location within the national space economy, act as dominant controls over rural population density in early 21st century Australia.

Post-agreement societies and inter-ethnic competition: A comparative study of the Protestant community of Londonderry and the white population of Pretoria

The arrival of thousands of international students from Asia and the Pacific after the Second World War has reshaped the social and political texture of Australian life by helping undermine long-held suspicions of inferiority, racial pollution and political disruption. This article examines the transnational experience of sponsored and private overseas scholars in relation to the growing body of transnational theory and suggests why scholarly discourse and Australian museums have largely omitted non-permanent migrants, such as student sojourners. It also suggests how museums might avoid the pitfalls of the multicultural or pluralist imperatives that guide migrant heritage collection and exhibition practices.     

Privatization, provision, and targeting: Trends and policy implications for social security in the United States

This paper examines several important trends in the changing structure of social security in the United States and their impact on the elderly in different income groups. These trends involve the shifting public/private mix of retirement income, the declining replacement rates of public benefits, and reforms for targeting benefits by age. An analysis of these trends suggests that (a) social security will provide declining economic support for those most in need; (b) middle- and upper-income groups will have a diminished stake in social security, reducing the programme's political base of support; (c) increasing reliance on occupational pensions will heighten the need for greater public regulation of private schemes; (d) an unplanned two-tiered system of pensions will emerge, with the first tier consisting of a whittled-down version of social security to provide a predominant source of retirement income for low-income wage earners and the second tier consisting of private pensions for middle- and upper-income groups.     

Psychological Malpractice and the Anti-Cult Battle—A Response

The operation of some cults and the ‘deprogramming’ of cult members are both held to be suspect. An examination of the broad characteristics, motivations and backgrounds of cult members reveals links with the authoritarian justifications of their ‘rescuers‘.—Ed.     

Working Together Apart

In this paper we report upon the development and operation of a “street-level” response to the problems of interprofessional joint working in providing appropriate care for elderly people living in one Scottish city. The “exchange system”, as it was known in the locale, was a mechanism for co-ordinating the movement of elderly people between the geriatric, psychiatric, and residential services within the city in response to changes in the needs of the individual elderly person, and the needs of service providers. The importance of the scheme stemmed from the fact that it was not imposed on professionals' work, but rather that it developed out of that work. By focusing on the operation of interprofessional joint working at the street level we draw attention to those complexities involved in such work which are often overlooked in the broad policy statements on joint working which have emerged from government departments, and health and social services agencies. Policy makers and analysts alike have largely ignored the meaning and consequences of joint working at the level of professionals' actual work, and it is this lacuna in the literature that the paper seeks to address. The paper concludes with an appeal to researchers and practitioners to describe any such schemes of whatever nature operating in their own locales. In so doing a corpus of knowledge looking critically at the experience of interservice and interprofessional collaboration at the street level may emerge which would inform broad policy statements.     

A note on the manova model with double linear restrictions

In this note we show how one may construct goodness-of-fit tests to test hypotheses for the restricted MANOVA and GMANOVA models using the multivariate seemingly unrelated regression (MSUR) model.     

Inference for Adaptive Time Series Models: Stochastic Volatility and Conditionally Gaussian State Space Form

In this paper we model the Gaussian errors in the standard Gaussian linear state space model as stochastic volatility processes. We show that conventional MCMC algorithms for this class of models are ineffective, but that the problem can be alleviated by reparameterizing the model. Instead of sampling the unobserved variance series directly, we sample in the space of the disturbances, which proves to lower correlation in the sampler and thus increases the quality of the Markov chain.

Using our reparameterized MCMC sampler, it is possible to estimate an unobserved factor model for exchange rates between a group of n countries. The underlying n + 1 country-specific currency strength factors and the n + 1 currency volatility factors can be extracted using the new methodology. With the factors, a more detailed image of the events around the 1992 EMS crisis is obtained.

We assess the fit of competitive models on the panels of exchange rates with an effective particle filter and find that indeed the factor model is strongly preferred by the data.