The graphical advantages of finite interval confidence band procedures

When presented as graphical illustrations, regression surface confidence bands for linear statistical models quickly convey detailed information about analysis results. A taut confidence band is a compact set of curves which are estimation candidates for the unobservable, fixed regression curve. The bounds of the band are usually plotted with the estimated regression curve and may be overlaid by a scatter-plot of the data to provide an integrated visual impression. Finite-interval confidence bands offer the advantages of clearer interpretation and improved efficiency and avoid visual ambiguities inherent to infinite-interval bands. The definitive characteristic of a finite-interval confidence band is that it is only necessary to plot it over a finite interval in order to visually communicate all its information. In contrast, visual representations of infinite-interval bands are not fully informative and can be misleading. When an infinite-interval band is plotted, and therefore truncated, substantial information given by its asymptotic behavior is lost. Many curves that are clearly within the plotted portion of the infinite interval confidence band eventually cross a boundary. In practice, a finite-interval band can always be easily obtained from any infinite-interval band. This article focuses on interpretational considerations of symmetric confidence bands as graphical devices.     

Human resource development in small organizations

This article draws upon case-study research into human resource development (HRD) within three small organizations in the north west of England. It positions the case-study work within an overall framework of doctoral research and summarizes the research design; discusses the characteristics and values of small organizations and how they influence HRD policies and practices: presents findings and conclusions about HRD in the case-study organizations, focusing in particular upon one case in the voluntary sector; compares and contrasts the different models of HRD in the three cases; and concludes with some suggestions for further research.     

Adoption,personality disorder and parental guilt: Implications of genetic research for social work

Few adoptive parents are aware that serious behavioral and personality problems can occur in adopted children. When such problems are manifested, parents are often guilt-ridden, believing that they are to blame. Recent research suggests that the risks associated with adoption may be genetically linked. Social workers who counsel adoptive parents need to be aware of potential problems, explain possible risks to them, and use these research findings to positive effect.     

Crime,antisocial personality and pathological gambling

To investigate the hypothesized causal relationship between pathological gambling and gambling-related illegal behaviors, 77 patients seeking behavioral treatment for excessive gambling and 32 members of Gamblers Anonymous were administered a structured interview schedule. Data on the incidence, nature and extent of both gambling and non-gambling related illegal behaviors was obtained and DSM-III (A.P.A., 1980) criteria for Antisocial personality were used as the measure of sociopathy.Of the sample, 54.1% admitted to a gambling related offense and 21.1% were charged. Results showed that 14.6% met DSM-III criteria for Antisocial Personality, Four subgroups were subsequently identified; gamblers who committed no offense (36.7%), gambling only offenses (40.4%), non-gambling only offenses (9.2%) or both gambling and non-gambling offenses (13.7%). Significantly more subjects from the gambling plus non-gambling related offenses subgroup were classified as antisocial personalities.Of pathological gamblers who committed offenses, two thirds reportedly did so as a direct consequence of gambling induced problems. Subjects reporting gambling-only related offenses showed a significant increase in antisocial features after adolescence suggesting that antisocial features emerge as a secondary phenomenon to pathological gambling behavior patterns.Acknowledgments: This study was made possible by a grant from the Criminology Research Council, Australian Institute of Criminology.     

Visual Access and Attention in Two‐Year‐Olds' Event Reasoning and Object Search

Several recent studies have revealed substantial limitations in 2‐year‐olds' ability to search accurately for objects that have undergone unseen movement, even along highly constrained paths. In many of these studies, children observed a ball as it rolled down a track and behind an occluding panel that contained 4 doors. The track had a barrier that was partly visible and could be placed in locations corresponding to the doors. When the ball came to a rest against the barrier and behind the occluder, the child's task was to find the ball by opening the correct door. The search accuracy of 2‐year‐olds has not differed from chance across several variations of this task. This research was conducted to identify the source of 2‐year‐olds' limitation in this domain. Children were granted a full view of the event before the ball was occluded with a door panel. Children's performance was better under this condition, but was still not systematically accurate unless their gaze remained locked onto the correct location. Two‐year‐olds' weak performance in these search tasks appears to be more a consequence of limitations in spatial integration than in their representation of unseen movement.     

New community governance in small rural towns: the Australian experience

State and federal governments in Australia have developed a range of policy instruments for rural areas in Australia that are infused with a new sense of ‘community’, employing leading concepts like social capital, social enterprise, community development, partnerships and community building. This has encouraged local people and organisations to play a greater role in the provision of their local services and has led to the development of a variety of ‘community’ organisations aimed at stemming social and economic decline. In Victoria, local decision-making, before municipal amalgamations, gave small towns some sense of autonomy and some discretion over their affairs. However, following municipal amalgamations these small towns lost many of the resources—legal, financial, political, informational and organisational—associated with their former municipal status. This left a vacuum in these communities and the outcome was the emergence of local development groups. Some of these groups are new but many of them are organisations that have been reconstituted as groups with a broader community focus. The outcomes have varied from place to place but overall there has been a significant shift in governance processes at community level. This paper looks at the processes of ‘community governance’ and how it applies in a number of case studies in Victoria.     

Correlates of physical violence at school: A multilevel analysis of Australian high school students

Studies of school violence have been generally been informed either by social disorganisation or social control theory. However applications of social disorganisation theory to school violence sometimes make little attempt to control for individual differences in propensity to violent behaviour. This study of 2,616 Australian high school students uses multilevel modelling techniques to see whether various characteristics of the school (e.g. lack of clarity about school rules, school responsiveness to racism, school size, ethnic composition) are related to the risk of physical violence between students, once individual and family risk factors for violent behaviour have been taken into account. The results suggest that school characteristics and developmental factors both play an important role in shaping the risk of violence at school.     

Children, death and ageism

The position of children in the social order can be seen as an ambiguous one. On the one hand, they are highly valued, at a rhetorical level at least, as the basis of the future generation. On the other hand, however, they can be seen to be marginalized and disenfranchised, protected from more aspects of social life than is strictly necessary. This paper explores some of the important issues relating to children's disenfranchised social position, with specific reference to issues relating to death, dying and bereavement.     

Environmental assessment in forestry: the initial experience

This study analyses the effectiveness of the European Community's Environmental Assessment Directive of 1985 in its application in the U.K. forestry sector. It assesses the applicability of the regulations in the provision of the public and private outputs of forestry. The environmental assessment regulation may contribute to the provision of the optimal amount of these public and private goods in theory, but it is concluded that, in common with initial results of the environmental assessment process in other sectors, the regulations do not make this contribution in practice in the forestry sector. The main deficiencies of the environmental statements examined were the failure to identify the significant potential impacts; to present alternative project sites and design features; and the erroneous measure of particular externalities. The environmental assessment process was also found to be unsatisfactory in the lack of public accessibility and consultation. The need for revision of the process in the forestry sector is highlighted.