Judgment and Analysis in Oil Spill Risk Assessment

The risk of oil spills is a major environmental issue in the siting of proposed coastal refineries, oil terminals, deepwater ports, and in the leasing of offshore lands for oil exploration and development. As with any kind of risk, oil spill risk assessment is inherently judgmental and no analytic method can eliminate the need for judgment. This paper compares representative examples of oil spill risk assessments with regard to decisions about data, variables, functional relations, and uncertainty. The comparison emphasizes the judgmental basis of analytic methods.     

Using Bayesian Networks to Model Expected and Unexpected Operational Losses

This report describes the use of Bayesian networks (BNs) to model statistical loss distributions in financial operational risk scenarios. Its focus is on modeling "long" tail, or unexpected, loss events using mixtures of appropriate loss frequency and severity distributions where these mixtures are conditioned on causal variables that model the capability or effectiveness of the underlying controls process. The use of causal modeling is discussed from the perspective of exploiting local expertise about process reliability and formally connecting this knowledge to actual or hypothetical statistical phenomena resulting from the process. This brings the benefit of supplementing sparse data with expert judgment and transforming qualitative knowledge about the process into quantitative predictions. We conclude that BNs can help combine qualitative data from experts and quantitative data from historical loss databases in a principled way and as such they go some way in meeting the requirements of the draft Basel II Accord (Basel, 2004) for an advanced measurement approach (AMA).     

A Stimulus Control Model of Change in Behavioral Couples' Therapy: Implications for Contingency Contracting

Although contingency contracting is a popular strategy for use in treating distressed relationships, there is no direct evidence of its efficacy. A stimulus control model of change in behavioral couples' therapy states that the conditions under which an agreement was negotiated, regardless of the consequences specified in the agreement itself, are the primary determinants of whether the agreement is upheld. Once change is prompted, its maintenance is associated with stimuli generated by the negotiating session itself (that is, self-statements) and contingencies provided by concurrent changes occurring in therapy. Therefore, it is argued that explicit contingency contracting is unnecessary, and in fact contraindicated, for reasons which are elaborated. Hypotheses are offered which provide indirect tests of this model of change in behavioral couples' therapy .     

Expert Scientific Judgment and Cancer Risk Assessment: A Pilot Study of Pharmacokinetic Data

When high-dose tumor data are extrapolated to low doses, it is typically assumed that the dose of a carcinogen delivered to target cells is proportional to the dose administered to test animals, even at exposure levels below the experimental range. Since pharmacokinetic data are becoming available that in some cases question the validity of this assumption, risk assessors must decide whether to maintain the standard assumption. A pilot study of formaldehyde is reported that was undertaken to demonstrate how expert scientific judgment can help guide a controversial risk assessment where pharmacokinetic data are considered inconclusive. Eight experts on pharmacokinetic data were selected by a formal procedure, and each was interviewed personally using a structured interview protocol. The results suggest that expert scientific opinion is polarized in this case, a situation that risk assessors can respond to with a range of risk characterizations considered biologically plausible by the experts. Convergence of expert opinion is likely in this case of several specific research strategies ar executed in a competent fashion. Elicitation of expert scientific judgment is a promising vehicle for evaluating the quality of pharmacokinetic data, expressing uncertainty in risk assessment, and fashioning a research agenda that offers possible forging of scientific consensus.     

Supportive parenting moderates the effect of discrimination upon anger, hostile view of relationships, and violence among African American boys

Studies have shown that exposure to discrimination increases the probability that African American adolescents will engage in delinquent behavior, especially acts of violence. The present study extended this research by examining the extent to which supportive parenting buffers a youth from these deleterious consequences of discrimination. Analyses based upon two waves of data from a sample of 332 African American adolescent males and their caretakers supported this hypothesis. Further the results indicated that there are two avenues whereby supportive parenting reduces the probability that discrimination will lead to violence. First, supportive parenting decreases the chances that discrimination will lead to anger and a hostile view of relationships. Second, supportive parenting lowers the risk that anger or a hostile view of relationships, when they develop, will result in violence.     

Child death review teams: a vital component of child protection

The alarming number of children killed and seriously injured as a result of child maltreatment and neglect has led to increased calls for action. In response, interdisciplinary and multiagency child death review teams have emerged as an important component of child protection. Paradoxically, child death review teams are among the least visible and understood elements in efforts to protect children. This article examines the role and functions of child death review teams and their contributions to child welfare in practice, prevention, and policy.     

Victim service and justice system representative responses about partner stalking: what do professionals recommend?

Research suggests that partner stalking is associated with reassault and lethality as well as increased psychological distress for victims. However, there is a significant gap in information about stalking interventions and the responses of health, mental health, law enforcement, social services, and criminal justice professionals to women experiencing partner stalking. The purpose of this study is to examine the ideas about appropriate and effective responses to stalking victims from professionals in victim services and the justice system. The study also examined differences among rural and urban representatives because prior studies have shown significant differences between rural and urban areas on experiences and responses to partner violence. A total of 152 key informants (38 urban and 114 rural) were interviewed. Study results suggest a need for more training for victim services and justice system professionals on stalking and service needs of women who experience stalking in the context of partner violence.     

Muscle-power quality: does sex or race affect movement velocity in older adults?

To determine sex and race differences in muscle power per unit of muscle contraction, knee-extensor muscle power normalized for knee-extensor muscle volume was measured in 79 middle-aged and older adults (30 men and 49 women, age range 50-85 years). Results revealed that women displayed a 38% faster peak movement velocity than men and African Americans had a 14% lower peak movement velocity than Whites of a similar age when expressed per unit of involved muscle (p < .001). As expected, men exhibited greater knee-extensor strength and peak power per unit of muscle than women, but women had a faster knee- extension movement velocity per unit of muscle than men at the same relative strength level. Moreover, African Americans had greater knee-extensor muscle volume than Whites but exhibited lower knee-extensor strength and lower movement velocity per unit of muscle when tested at the same relative strength levels.