The Evolution of Humanitarian Action

A brief review of overall trends in humanitarian action followingthe end of the Cold War is followed by examination of UNHCR'sevolution from a narrowly focused, non-operational organizationto one with a wide field presence and whose concerns are notlimited to refugees. Three changes are highlighted: the increasein the range of UNHCR's interlocutors; the shift from neverquestioning causes to an explicit concern with them; and theimpact of the field presence. The conclusion suggests that humanitarianaction that is not accompanied by political action to addresscauses may eventually face insurmountable problems, and thatwhile UNHCR will continue operate in unstable environments andfor mixed caseloads, its unique responsibility for refugeesmust override wider interests and concerns.     

Inference in a Binary Response Model with Applications to Data Analysis*

Standard errors of the coefficients of a logistic regression (a binary response model) based on the asymptotic formula are compared to those obtained from the bootstrap through Monte Carlo simulations. The computer intensive bootstrap method, a nonparametric alternative to the asymptotic estimate, overestimates the true value of the standard errors while the asymptotic formula underestimates it. However, for small samples the bootstrap estimates are substantially closer to the true value than their counterpart derived from the asymptotic formula. The methodology is discussed using two illustrative data sets. The first example deals with a logistic model explaining the log-odds of passing the ERA amendment by the 1982 deadline as a function of percent of women legislators and the percent vote for Reagan. In the second example, the probability that an ingot is ready to roll is modelled using heating time and soaking time as explanatory variables. The results agree with those obtained from the simulations. The value of the study to better decision making through accurate statistical inference is discussed.     

The reliance on recognition and majority vote heuristics over privacy concerns when selecting smartphone apps among German and US consumers

The smartphone app market is a prime example of a digital market where consumers are tasked with selecting one option among a plethora of alternatives, at times indistinguishable from one another. Building upon findings on information processing and decision-making, we postulate that consumers follow simple (rather than complex) heuristic rules to navigate the app market. In particular, we focus on two such strategies: the recognition heuristic and the majority vote heuristic. App privacy information was also considered as a potentially salient cue in the decision-making process, given the personal data stored on smartphones. Results of a mixed-method design (behavioral analysis and think-aloud protocols) study with German (N?=?18) and US (N?=?25) students find a dominance of the recognition heuristic. Decisions are further supported by majority vote heuristics. Privacy information is largely disregarded, particularly by US participants. Implications for app market design and engagement are discussed.     

High-intensity interval training (HIIT) increases insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) in sedentary aging men but not masters’ athletes: an observational study

Introduction: The aim of this investigation was to examine the impact high-intensity interval training (HIIT) on serum insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) in active compared with sedentary aging men.

Methods: 22 lifetime sedentary (SED; 62?±?2 years) and 17 masters’ athletes (LEX; 60?±?5 years) were recruited to the study. As HIIT requires preconditioning exercise in sedentary cohorts, the study required three assessment phases; enrollment (phase A), following preconditioning exercise (phase B), and post-HIIT (phase C). Serum IGF-I was determined by electrochemiluminescent immunoassay.

Results: IGF-I was higher in LEX compared to SED at baseline (p?=?0.007, Cohen’s d?=?0.91), and phase B (p?=?0.083, Cohen’s d?=?0.59), with only a small difference at C (p?=?0.291, Cohen’s d?=?0.35). SED experienced a small increase in IGF-I following preconditioning from 13.1?±?4.7 to 14.2?±?6.0?μg·dl^?1 (p?=?0.376, Cohen’s d?=?0.22), followed by a larger increase post-HIIT (16.9?±?4.4?μg·dl^?1), which was significantly elevated compared with baseline (p?=?0.002, Cohen’s d?=?0.85), and post-preconditioning (p?=?0.005, Cohen’s d?=?0.51). LEX experienced a trivial changes in IGF-I from A to B (18.2?±?6.4 to 17.2?±?3.7?μg·dl^?1 [p?=?0.538, Cohen’s d?=?0.19]), and a small change post-HIIT (18.4?±?4.1?μg·dl^?1 [p?=?0.283, Cohen’s d?=?0.31]). Small increases were observed in fat-free mass in both groups following HIIT (p?d?=?0.32–0.45).

Conclusions: In conclusion, HIIT with preconditioning exercise abrogates the age associated difference in IGF-I between SED and LEX, and induces small improvements in fat-free mass in both SED and LEX.     

Use of online crowdsourcing platforms for gambling research

Crowdsourcing platforms like Amazon’s Mechnical Turk and Crowdflower have been touted to be a cost-effective way to collect large amounts of behavioural data. Across four large-n studies, gambling-related behaviours, tendencies and traits among participants in these labour markets were examined. In Studies 1 and 2, both conducted on Crowdflower, problem gamblers (as measured by the benchmark Problem Gambling Severity Index) comprised 24.5% and 21.9% of participants, respectively. In Study 3, conducted on Mechanical Turk, problem gamblers comprised 9.0% of participants. In Study 4, a two-wave longitudinal study conducted on Crowdflower, problem gamblers comprised 13.5% of participants in wave one and 14.8% of participants in wave two. In Studies 2 and 3, strong convergent associations were demonstrated across various measures of problem gambling tendencies and general gambling involvement. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that gambling was associated with personality traits (impulsivity, sensation-seeking, self-control), risk attitudes, affect, and behavioural risk-taking consistent with previous research. In Study 4, it was demonstrated that measures of problem gambling have acceptable test-retest reliability. Online crowdsourcing platforms appear to offer access to samples with remarkably high proportions of problem gamblers. However, this characteristic means that such samples are not necessarily representative of gambling tendencies among more general populations.     

Childbearing Behavior Before and After the 1994 Population Policies in Ghana

Due to the high population growth rate in the mid-20th century, the government of Ghana introduced population policies to reduce the growth rate. Encouraging girls’ education and increasing contraceptive use were the two main policy measures to reduce population growth. In order to get a clear picture of the childbearing dynamics of Ghanaian women in response to the population policy of 1994, we analyzed individual reproductive histories from 1969 to 2003 using 2003 Ghana Demographic Health survey data to disentangle patterns by parity, calendar period, and educational groups. Exponential hazard regression models were used to estimate the relative risk of births. We find some evidence of a critical juncture in fertility trends, particularly for the fifth child. In addition, higher parity transition rates continuously declined for women with secondary or higher education and these educational levels were achieved by a higher share of the population after the policy was implemented. The 1994 population policy was successful if only by virtue of the increasing number of women with secondary or higher education. Belonging to this group is not only associated with lower fertility, but this suppressing effect strengthened in the years following the policy implementation. We also suspect that the increasing similarity between women with no education and with primary education reflects the diffusion of contraceptive knowledge and norms related to childbearing. The educational reform and contraceptive initiatives did result in increased education and contraceptive awareness and are therefore beneficial programs.     

Subjective Well-Being in China: Associations with Absolute,Relative, and Perceived Economic Circumstances

Numerous studies examining the impact of income on subjective well-being (SWB) have found significant positive relationships exhibiting decreasing marginal returns. However, the impact of economic circumstances on SWB is better captured through a combination of income, wealth (per capita net worth), and perceived and relative economic conditions. Using data from the Chinese Household Income Project, I find that within rural and urban China, wealth significantly predicts SWB, exhibiting decreasing marginal returns independent of more common measures of economic circumstances such as income and occupational status. Within urban China, these associations decrease in magnitude and significance with the addition of objective relative measures of wealth and income. Finally, I find that subjective perceptions of relative standard of living are strongly associated with SWB independent of other measures. These results highlight the importance of using multiple objective and subjective measures of economic circumstances, demonstrating potential limitations of studies that have focused exclusively on income as a predictor of well-being. Results are interpreted within the context of China’s changing social and economic structure.     

Interviewing children versus tossing coins: accurately assessing the diagnosticity of children's disclosures of abuse

We describe a Bayesian approach to evaluating children's abuse disclosures and review research demonstrating that children's disclosure of genital touch can be highly probative of sexual abuse, with the probative value depending on disclosure spontaneity and children's age. We discuss how some commentators understate the probative value of children's disclosures by: confusing the probability of abuse given disclosure with the probability of disclosure given abuse, assuming that children formally questioned about sexual abuse have a low prior probability of sexual abuse, misstating the probative value of abuse disclosure, and confusing the distinction between disclosure and nondisclosure with the distinction between true and false disclosures. We review interviewing methods that increase the probative value of disclosures, including interview instructions, narrative practice, noncontingent reinforcement, and questions about perpetrator/caregiver statements and children's reactions to the alleged abuse.     

Vowel harmony redux: Correct sounds,English loan words,and the sociocultural life of a phonological structure in Korean1

This paper examines an ideology of standard pronunciation and spelling of English loan words in South Korea through the lens of Korean vowel harmony. I focus specifically on the alternation between an older Japanese‐style ‘a’[a] and a newer Korean‐style ‘?’[?] for the mapping of mid‐vowels from English to Korean. The opposition between ‘a’ and ‘?’ also figures into the dichotomy of vowel classes between ‘yang’ or ‘light’ vowels and ‘yin’ or ‘dark’ vowels in Korean vowel harmony. This opposition is pervasive in Korean's rich stock of denotationally iconic words (e.g. onomatopoeia), where ablaut between vowel classes produces semantic and pragmatic contrasts. I suggest that this latter structure of phonological opposition has an influence on speakers’ perceptions of vowel difference and associated values in English loan words, despite an overarching ideology of standard pronunciation that is based on assumptions about phonetic fidelity. ? ??? ?? ???? ?? ?? ? ??? ? ?????? ????? ?? ??? ???? ????. ??, ?? ???? ‘?’[a]? ‘?’[?]? ??(mapping)?? ?? ??? ??. ??? ?? ????? ‘?’? ?? ?? ??? ? ?????? ???? ???? ??(正音)?? ?????? ??. ?? ‘?’? ????? ???, ??? ???? ??? ????? ?(音)?? ???? ??. ???, ‘?’/‘?’? ??? ??? ???? ?? ????? ????? ??; ?, ??? ????? ????? ??? ??. ??, ????? ???? ????? ??? ??? ??? ? ? ??. ????, ????? ????? ????? ??? ?? ???? ????? ??? ??? ???. [Korean]     

Identifying Mental Disorder from the Faces of Women with Borderline Personality Disorder

Although appearance-based cues can help to diagnose physical illness, visual manifestations of mental disorder may be more elusive. Here, we investigated whether individuals could distinguish women with a serious mental disorder (borderline personality disorder) from demographically- and IQ-matched non-psychiatric controls. Participants rated mentally ill targets as more likely to have a mental disorder from photos more accurately than chance, despite not believing that such judgments were possible. The configuration of facial cues played an important role in these judgments, as interfering with the spatial relationships between facial features reduced participants’ accuracy to chance guessing. Further investigation showed similar results when participants rated the targets for specific mental disorders (borderline personality disorder, major depressive disorder) and rated the mentally ill targets as more depressed, angry, anxious, disgusted, emotionally unstable, distressed, and less happy. Moreover, the depression ratings significantly correlated with the targets’ actual depressive symptoms. Thus, individuals may be able to infer aspects of mental disorder from minimal facial cues.