The Effect of Cash Transfers on Fertility: Evidence from Argentina

In 2009 Argentina introduced a large poverty-alleviation program (AUH) that provides monthly cash transfers per child to households without workers in the formal sector. In this paper we study the potential unintended effect of this program on fertility. We apply a difference-in-difference strategy comparing the probability of having a new child among eligible and ineligible mothers both before and after the program inception. The intention to treat estimations suggest a significant positive impact on fertility in households with at least one child (around 2 percentage points), but no significant effect on childless households. Given the short time window since the implementation of the AUH, we are unable to identify whether this positive effect reflects changes in the timing of births or in the equilibrium number of children.     

Doing Good,Public Good,and Public Value

In this article, using multiple illustrative case examples, we demonstrate that philanthropic institutions are in the business of creating public value. In framing the work of philanthropy more broadly to include the process of public value creation, philanthropic institutions and leaders are challenged to be more strategic not only in their mission‐fulfillment grant‐making with nonprofit organizations but also in the way they stimulate and encourage collaboration, create the “third space” necessary to incubate ideas to transform society, and leverage resources to increase the return on their investments toward system‐wide change. The implications for philanthropic actors and institutions suggest that the strategic contributions they make toward creation of public value are those that go beyond transactional performance measures, such as number of dollars spent or clients receiving services, to include ways that their investments are amplified by meaningful partnerships with nonprofit and other organizations, changed behaviors of institutions and individuals, and transformative public policies.     

On the improvement of one-sided S control charts

The most common charting procedure used for monitoring the variance of the distribution of a quality characteristic is the S control chart. As a Shewhart-type control chart, it is relatively insensitive in the quick detection of small and moderate shifts in process variance. The performance of the S chart can be improved by supplementing it with runs rules or by varying the sample size and the sampling interval. In this work, we introduce and study one-sided adaptive S control charts, supplemented or not with one powerful runs rule, for detecting increases or decreases in process variation. The properties of the proposed control schemes are obtained by using a Markov chain approach. Furthermore, a practical guidance for the choice of the most suitable control scheme is also provided.     

Modelling Marital Fertility by Age and Duration: An Empirical Appraisal of the Page Model

Page's model of marital fertility by age and duration is fitted by maximum likelihood techniques to data from 38 of the 41 developing countries that participated in the World Fertility Survey. The results indicate that the model does an excellent job of capturing variations in fertility patterns, with only two parameters. Moreover, national-level estimates of the parameter representing the degree of control of marital fertility correlate reasonably well with the proportion using contraception. On the other hand, estimates of the parameter representing the level of natural fertility correlate well with the duration of breastfeeding and with a measure of contraceptive use for spacing, but also show substantial regional variation. The paper closes with comments on several extensions and applications of the model.     

RESEARCH NOTE Some evidence against the assumption that approval of family planning is associated with frequency of spouses' discussion of the subject

Much previous work on the relationship between respondent's reported frequency of discussion with spouse about family planning and correctness of reporting spouse's approval of family planning has led to the conclusion that discussion promotes approval. In this paper, data from the 1998 Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys are used to show that a focus on the relationship between frequency of discussion and correctness of reporting partner's disapproval of family planning leads to sceptical conclusions about the effects of discussion in improving knowledge of partner's attitude or in promoting approval.     

Demography and Social Science

Research has demonstrated that son preference has a serious impact on the survival and well-being of female infants and children in some parts of South and East Asia, but little is known about the consequences of son preference in later childhood and adolescence. We compare children's growth trajectories in height over childhood and adolescence in China, where the level of son preference is relatively high, and the Philippines, where it is relatively low. Children's height reflects long-term nutritional status and exposure to infectious diseases, both influenced by household decision-making and, presumably, by a preference for sons. Using data from two high-quality longitudinal studies and multilevel growth models, we find that male children in China show an additional height advantage relative to their female counterparts, when compared to the sex difference in growth trajectories in the Philippines. Further analysis reveals that the additional advantage of males in China is stronger in rural areas.     

Accurate detection of excess over a standard based on a random sample

A known number N of packages each contain, in differing unknown amounts, both substances of no particular import and some substance of interest, the total weight of the latter substance for all N of the packages being an unknown quantity T. Based on the amounts of the substance of interest found in each of n (n ≦= N) randomly sampled packages one is to decide, with a very small probability of the error of wrongly deciding that T exceeds L, whether or not the quantity T exceeds a given amount L. An optimal way of doing this is presented in which the probability of the error of wrongly deciding that T exceeds L can be precisely bounded above as desired.     

Modular design of integrated databases in production management systems

Abstract

Complexity is a serious problem with respect to the application of information technology in the field of production management. This paper presents an overview of the more fundamental problems encountered and proposes a solution for some of those problems in the form of modular decomposition of the conceptual database structure. It is argued that the complexity of information systems is closely connected to the complexity of the organization. Therefore a condition for the realization of integrated information systems for production management is a simplification of the organizational structure by way of defunctionalization and the forming of autonomous units.     

Aggregating Political Dimensions: Of the Feasibility of Political Indicators

Political indicators are widely used in academic writing and decision making, but remain controversial. This paper discusses the problems related to the aggregation functions they use. Almost always, political indicators are aggregated by weighted averages or summations. The use of such functions is based on untenable assumptions (existence of homogeneous substitution rates, total compensation, and strict monotonicity). We show through concrete examples how these hidden assumptions are likely to produce results that are basically an artifact of ad hoc decisions, which additionally contradict very fundamental notions common to all credible political theories. We suggest, also through example, that some—necessarily partial—solutions are possible.