Alternative Methods for Computing the Sensitivity of Complex Surveillance Systems

Stochastic scenario trees are a new and popular method by which surveillance systems can be analyzed to demonstrate freedom from pests and disease. For multiple component systems—such as a combination of a serological survey and systematically collected observations—it can be difficult to represent the complete system in a tree because many branches are required to represent complex conditional relationships. Here we show that many of the branches of some scenario trees have identical outcomes and are therefore redundant. We demonstrate how to prune branches and derive compact representations of scenario trees using matrix algebra and Bayesian belief networks. The Bayesian network representation is particularly useful for calculation and exposition. It therefore provides a firm basis for arguing disease freedom in international forums.     

Who performs a stronger response to whom? Detecting individual competitive actions and reactions

This study analyzes the degree of competition through individual actions and reactions. Empirical support for this analysis has derived mainly from structural econometric models describing the nature of competition. This analysis extends the existing literature by empirically considering a direct measurement of competition through the analysis of the competitive actions and responses, and describing how firms compete within and between strategic groups. We estimate the firms’ conduct in the Spanish deposits market with 146 firms and 18,888 observations. This is a specially compelling context for the banking industry, in which a deregulation process gives rise to the adoption of aggressive strategies seeking to increase the market shares of deposit accounts; thus, producing a turbulent situation of increasing rivalry. Our results offer a deeper understanding of the firms’ competitive behavior, since we identify different patterns of actions and reactions depending upon the strategic group the firm belongs to.     

Asymmetries in Information Processing in a Decision Theory Framework

Research in psychology suggests that some individuals are more sensitive to positive than to negative information while others are more sensitive to negative rather than positive information. I take these cognitive positive–negative asymmetries in information processing to a Bayesian decision-theory model and explore its consequences in terms of decisions and payoffs. I show that in monotone decision problems economic agents with more positive-responsive information structures are always better off, ex ante, when they face problems where payoffs are relatively more sensitive to the action chosen when the state of nature is favorable.      

Examining the structure of awareness and perceptions of groundnut aflatoxin among Ghanaian health and agricultural professionals and its influence on their actions

This study uses a modified health belief model (HBM) within a socio-economic framework to evaluate the influence of awareness and knowledge on actions to reduce aflatoxin (AF) contamination in groundnuts (peanuts). Data were collected in 2002 through a self-administered questionnaire from a sample of 367 individuals. Socio-economic factors affecting perceptions, awareness, knowledge, and action were examined using structural equation modeling. The perceived benefits of good quality groundnuts and/or groundnut products were the most important determinants of awareness and knowledge of AF among agricultural and health professionals in Ghana. Awareness, in turn, had a significant causal effect on the professionals’ decisions to take actions to increase the level of awareness of AF in the society. Demographic factors, such as gender and level of education significantly influenced knowledge of AF and the perception of the benefits of good quality groundnut. Type of profession had a significant influence on awareness and perceived seriousness of the AF problem. Education was a significant determinant of awareness of AF in groundnuts. The study generates important information for policy decision making when considering resource allocation to reduce food contamination in developing economies.     

Structure,power, and discourses of development in Spanish NGOs

Because of its recent and rapid growth, the Spanish development apparatus provides an appropriate arena for studying nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). This article uses case studies of three NGOs—Manos Unidas, Intermón Oxfam, and Madre Coraje—to explore the tension between the internal and external dynamics that affect these organizations. Although powerful external forces promote structural isomorphism with its attendant bureaucratization and professionalization, several internal factors—youth, small size, certain ideologies, charismatic leaders, and privileging identification with the organization rather than expertise when recruiting participants—resist these homogenizing processes. DiMaggio and Powell's iron cage hypothesis (1983) therefore can be only partially confirmed. We suggest an intriguing, intimate connection between charisma and democracy.     

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE GROWTH ACCOUNTING PERSPECTIVE

A positive relationship between FDI and economic growth under two economic conditions has been estimated: a sufficient level of human capital and well-developed financial markets, respectively. However, these two conditions can be fundamentally different catalysts for FDI to promote economic growth in the perspective of growth accounting. Using data from 69 countries over 1970–1989, we find that FDI promotes productivity growth only when the host country reaches a threshold level of human capital; and FDI promotes capital growth only when a certain level of financial development is achieved. ( JEL F21)     

Embedded cultural values and international transaction cost advantages

Culturally embedded differences in self-interested behavior and perceptions of trust violate the universal assumption of moral hazard held by transaction cost economic theorists. A model of transaction cost advantage is derived and propositions developed using the cultural value diversity literature to test the universal assumptions of transaction cost economics.     

Gender, Race, and Perception of Environmental Health Risks

This paper reports the results of a national survey in which perceptions of environmental health risks were measured for 1275 white and 214 nonwhite persons. The results showed that white women perceived risks to be much higher than did white men, a result that is consistent with previous studies. However, this gender difference was not true of nonwhite women and men, whose perceptions of risk were quite similar. Most striking was the finding that white males tended to differ from everyone else in their attitudes and perceptions–on average, they perceived risks as much smaller and much more acceptable than did other people. These results suggest that sociopolitical factors such as power, status, alienation, and trust are strong determiners of people's perception and acceptance of risks.