The Nonparametric Identification of Treatment Effects in Duration Models

This paper analyzes the specification and identification of causal multivariate duration models. We focus on the case in which one duration concerns the point in time a treatment is initiated and we are interested in the effect of this treatment on some outcome duration. We define “no anticipation of treatment” and relate it to a common assumption in biostatistics. We show that (i) no anticipation and (ii) randomized treatment assignment can be imposed without restricting the observational data. We impose (i) but not (ii) and prove identification of models that impose some structure. We allow for dependent unobserved heterogeneity and we do not exploit exclusion restrictions on covariates. We provide results for both single‐spell and multiple‐spell data. The timing of events conveys useful information on the treatment effect.     

CRITICAL PERIODS DURING CHILDHOOD AND ADOLESCENCE

We identify the ages that constitute sensitive (or critical) periods in children's development towards their adult health status, skills, and human capital. For this, we use data on families migrating into Sweden from countries that are poorer, with less healthy conditions. Late‐life health is proxied by adult height and other adult outcomes. The relation between siblings’ ages at migration and their adult outcomes allows us to estimate the causal effect of conditions at specific childhood ages. We effectively exploit that, for siblings, the migration occurs simultaneously in calendar time but at different developmental stages (ages). We find evidence that the period just before the puberty growth spurt constitutes a critical period for adult height and we find related critical periods for adult cognition, mental health, and education.     

Regional now- and forecasting for data reported with delay: toward surveillance of COVID-19 infections

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis - Governments around the world continue to act to contain and mitigate the spread of COVID-19. The rapidly evolving situation compels officials and executives...     

Knowledge Diversity and Venture Growth: The Contingent Effects of Early Planning and Experimentation

Drawing on an information processing perspective, we explore to what extent early venture activities allow founding teams to leverage their diverse knowledge to achieve venture growth. Using data from 103 young ventures, we find that early planning enables founding teams to better exploit the diverse knowledge resulting from their heterogeneity in educational background. However, venture growth is highest when diverse teams simultaneously plan and experiment in the early venture phase. This study challenges extant explanations of when early behaviours shape the efficient usage of existing venture resources. We discuss the contribution of these findings to the literature on founding teams, planning and experimentation, and team diversity.     

Let's stay close: An examination of the effects of imagined contact on behavior toward children with disability

In line with current developments in indirect intergroup contact literature, we conducted a field study using the imagined contact paradigm among high-status (Italian children) and low-status (children with foreign origins) group members (N = 122; 53 females, mean age = 7.52 years). The experiment aimed to improve attitudes and behavior toward a different low-status group, children with disability. To assess behavior, we focused on an objective measure that captures the physical distance between participants and a child with disability over the course of a five-minute interaction (i.e., while playing together). Results from a 3-week intervention revealed that in the case of high-status children imagined contact, relative to a no-intervention control condition, improved outgroup attitudes and behavior, and strengthened helping and contact intentions. These effects however did not emerge among low-status children. The results are discussed in the context of intergroup contact literature, with emphasis on the implications of imagined contact for educational settings.     

Unemployment and Search for Work: Exploratory Analyses of Labour Market Attachment and its Dynamics

This paper deals with measuring unemployment and labour market attachment in Italy, on the basis of Labour Force Survey data. Based on the answers to a set of questions on search for work, a cluster analysis is performed, which yields four groups, clearly characterized as regards their labour market conditions and attachment. Analyses are then carried out on the gross flows between these groups, estimated over a quarterly interval. Results of the dynamic analysis confirm the relevance of the classification established through exploratory techniques. The various groups exhibit a different dynamic behaviour, thus documenting that the exploratory classification has predictive power.     

Informing employees in small and medium-sized firms about training: Results of a randomized field experiment

We mailed brochures to 10,000 randomly chosen employed German workers who were eligible for a subsidized occupational training program called WeGebAU, informing them about the importance of skills-upgrading training in general and about WeGebAU in particular. Using survey and register data, we estimate effects of the informational brochure on awareness of the program, on take-up of WeGebAU and other training, and on subsequent employment. The brochure more than doubles awareness of the program. There are no effects on WeGebAU take-up, but participation in other (unsubsidized) training increases among employees aged under 45. Short-term labor market outcomes are not affected.     

The longitudinal link between popularity,likeability, fear of negative evaluation and social avoidance across adolescence

This study investigated the longitudinal bidirectional associations between likeability, popularity, fear of negative evaluation, and social avoidance, to aid in preventing the negative consequences and persistent trajectories of low social status and heightened social anxiety. In total, 1741 adolescents in grades 7–9 participated at 3 yearly waves. A self-report questionnaire measured fear of negative evaluation. Peer nominations assessed likeability, popularity, and social avoidance. Lower popularity predicted more avoidance, and vice versa. More avoidance was related to lower likeability over time. Being less popular and/or more liked by peers, increased fear of negative evaluation. Support for a transactional model between social anxiety and social status was found, but distinguishing different social status and social anxiety components is necessary.