A Calibrated Index of Human Development

The weightings of the four component indicators of the UNDP’s Human Development Index HDI appear to be arbitrary and have not been given justification. This paper develops a variant of the HDI, calculated to reflect peoples’ revealed evaluations of education and the productivity of work. The resulting Calibrated human Development Index CDI has a simpler structure, places greater weight on life expectancy and lesser weight on education. It is validated by high correlation with life evaluations from the World Values Survey. The CDI ranks countries much like the HDI. More importantly, its provenance permits it to be used to assess specific policies, regulations, safety standards, life-saving interventions and health-care alternatives. The CDI is a unified tool for policy evaluation and decision support.     

Imposing the Regular Ultra Passum law in DEA models

Recently there has been some discussion in the literature concerning the nature of scale properties in the Data Envelopment Model (DEA). It has been argued that DEA may not be able to provide reliable estimates of the optimal scale size. We argue in this paper that DEA is well suited to estimate optimal scale size, if DEA is augmented with two additional maintained hypotheses which imply that the DEA-frontier is consistent with smooth curves along rays in input and in output space that obey the Regular Ultra Passum (RUP) law, i.e. monotonically decreasing scale elasticities. A necessary condition for a smooth curve passing through all vertices to obey the RUP-law is presented. If this condition is satisfied then upper and lower bounds for the marginal product at each vertex are presented. It is shown that any set of feasible marginal products will correspond to a smooth curve passing through all points with a monotonic decreasing scale elasticity. The proof is constructive in the sense that an estimator of the curve is provided with the desired properties. A typical DEA based return to scale analysis simply reports whether or not a DMU is at the optimal scale based on point estimates of scale efficiency. A contribution of this paper is that we provide a method which allows us to determine in what interval optimal scale is located.     

The Measurement of Subjective Probability: Evaluating the Sensitivity and Accuracy of Various Scales

The RISK of an event generally relates to its expected severity and the perceived probability of its occurrence. In RISK research, however, there is no standard measure for subjective probability estimates. In this study, we compared five commonly used measurement formats—two rating scales, a visual analog scale, and two numeric measures—in terms of their ability to assess subjective probability judgments when objective probabilities are available. We varied the probabilities (low vs. moderate) and severity (low vs. high) of the events to be judged as well as the presentation mode of objective probabilities (sequential presentation of singular events vs. graphical presentation of aggregated information). We employed two complementary goodness‐of‐fit criteria: the correlation between objective and subjective probabilities (sensitivity), and the root mean square deviations of subjective probabilities from objective values (accuracy). The numeric formats generally outperformed all other measures. The severity of events had no effect on the performance. Generally, a rise in probability led to decreases in performance. This effect, however, depended on how the objective probabilities were encoded: pictographs ensured perfect information, which improved goodness of fit for all formats and diminished this negative effect on the performance. Differences in performance between scales are thus caused only in part by characteristics of the scales themselves—they also depend on the process of encoding. Consequently, researchers should take the source of probability information into account before selecting a measure.     

Estimation in Epidemics with Incomplete Observations

The construction of estimating equations by martingale methods is generalized to yield estimators with explicit expressions for the parameters of the birth-and-death and the general epidemic processes when only partial observations are available. (For the birth-and-death process the death process is observed but the number of births is observed only at the end and for the general epidemic process only the removal process is observed.) For large populations, the use of the martingale central limit theorem yields asymptotic confidence regions for the parameters. Explicit expressions are derived for estimators of the variances of the large sample distributions. The range of validity and usefulness of the new estimators is determined by simulation.     

“It’s not tolerance I’m asking for, it’s respect!” A conceptual framework to differentiate between tolerance, acceptance and (two types of) respect

Due to a rising interest in empirical ‘respect’ research but at the same time a somewhat fuzzy use of the term and its semantically close neighbors, we introduce a conceptual framework. The framework draws on existing philosophical traditions and empirical psychological works alike. It is pointed out that respect, acceptance, and tolerance are all attitudes of a subject towards an object which are not aligned on one dimension, but are concerned with quite different issues. Moreover, we propose that research needs to differentiate between two very different kinds of respect. Whereas appraisal respect, acceptance, and tolerance are attitudinal reflections of a subject’s decisions on certain issues (i.e., on influence, membership, and presence), recognition respect is proposed to be an overarching processing mode, i.e., a general attitude on how to confront others.     

The recalibration of the Danish old-age pension system

Pension reform in Denmark in the 1990s is of general interest owing to the development of a system of funded, defined contribution pension schemes based on collective agreement between the parties in the labour market. The resulting pension system seems to hold some answers to the critique of funded pension schemes. This paper analyses the process which led to the 1991 pension reform and relates the discussions and solutions found in Denmark to the international debate on pension reform.