Estimation in Epidemics with Incomplete Observations

The construction of estimating equations by martingale methods is generalized to yield estimators with explicit expressions for the parameters of the birth-and-death and the general epidemic processes when only partial observations are available. (For the birth-and-death process the death process is observed but the number of births is observed only at the end and for the general epidemic process only the removal process is observed.) For large populations, the use of the martingale central limit theorem yields asymptotic confidence regions for the parameters. Explicit expressions are derived for estimators of the variances of the large sample distributions. The range of validity and usefulness of the new estimators is determined by simulation.     

Mapping heat and traffic stress of urban park vegetation based on satellite imagery - A comparison of Bucharest,Romania and Leipzig,Germany

Urban Ecosystems - Large and comparatively compact European cities such as Bucharest and Leipzig struggle with considerable urban heat island (UHI) effects characterized by heat and drought...     

How do private entrepreneurs transform local social capital into economic capital? Four case studies from rural Denmark

Bourdieu's (1986) General Theory of the Economy of Practices assumes that people perpetually transform tangible and intangible forms of capital according to certain ‘laws of conversion’. On this background, and combining sociology and micro-economics, we analyze specific strings of capital conversion in time and space. More specifically, we raise the question: How do private entrepreneurs transform local social capital into economic capital? We combine in-depth interviews with four private entrepreneurs in rural Denmark with Prisoner's Dilemma game theory. Thus each of our cases illustrates one of the outcomes in the PD matrix. In this way we explain why only one of the four entrepreneurs succeeds in capitalizing social capital.     

Empirical Bayes Age–Period–Cohort Analysis of Retrospective Incidence Data

We analyse the (age, time)-specific incidence of diabetes based on retrospective data obtained from a prevalent cohort only including survivors to a particular date. From underlying point processes with intensities corresponding to the (age, time)-specific incidence rates the observed point pattern is assumed to be generated by an independent thinning process with parameters (assumed known) depending on population density and survival probability to the sampling date. A Bayesian procedure is carried out for the optimal adjustment and comparison of isotropic and anisotropic smoothing priors for the intensity functions, as well as for the decomposition of the intensity on the (time, age) Lexis diagram into the three factors of age, period and cohort.     

Becoming a Parent and Relationship Satisfaction: A Longitudinal Dyadic Perspective

This study investigated the extent to which women's and men's relationship satisfaction within couples is similarly or differently affected by becoming a parent and the extent to which changes in work hours and hours spent on household labor affect a person's own and his or her spouse's relationship satisfaction across the transition to parenthood. The authors conducted longitudinal dyadic analyses, based on 12 waves of the British Household Panel Study (BHPS). They selected 689 couples who remained together during the period of observation and who were employed, childless, and living with their partner (of which 28% married) at the first moment of observation. The results revealed that relationship satisfaction of both members in a couple changed in tandem. Although work hours and household labor had some effect on people's own and their spouse's relationship satisfaction, these factors did not account for the U‐shaped relationship satisfaction pattern associated with the transition to parenthood.     

On the Compatibility of Islam and Gender Equality

Although the Muslim world is sometimes depicted as a homogeneous civilization lacking democracy and gender equality, Muslim countries show tremendous economic, political and cultural variation. In this paper, this variation is used to gain insight into the determinants of women’s labor market participation (LMP) in the Muslim world. We use data on 45 Muslim countries and apply SEM models to determine effects of modernization, democracy, cultural background, and state Islamization on women’s participation in the formal economy (absolute LMP) and on the share of women in the labor force (relative LMP). Women’s absolute LMP is higher in Muslim countries with higher levels of economic development and in the oil-exporting countries. For women’s relative LMP, practical democracy (the degree to which people actively participate in the system) takes in a key position. It has a strong positive effect on women’s relative LMP and mediates the effects of economic development (positive), formal democratic structures (positive) and state Islamization (negative) on women’s relative LMP. Results indicate that in these countries modernization may lead to empowerment of women by increasing their absolute LMP, but that for attaining gender equality the political opportunity structures is most important.     

ESTIMATING POPULATION SIZE FROM CAPTURE-RECAPTURE EXPERIMENTS IN CONTINUOUS TIME

Estimates for the size of a closed population are given for multiple recapture studies in continuous time. The estimates are derived by a method of moments for martingales. An estimate and associated standard error of the population size are derived for a homogeneous population when the capture rates are permitted to depend on time in an unspecified manner. Corresponding results are obtained when the capture rates vary among individuals as well. Explicit expressions are given for these estimates and standard errors which involve only simple computation.