Estimating the effects of activists in two-party and multi-party systems: comparing the United States and Israel

This article presents an electoral model where activist groups contribute resources to their favored parties. These resources are then used by the party candidates to enhance the electoral perception of their quality or valence. We construct an empirical model of the United States presidential election of 2008 and employ the electoral perception of the character traits of the two candidates. We use a simulation technique to determine the local Nash equilibrium, under vote share maximization, of this model. The result shows that the unique vote-maximizing equilibrium is one where the two candidates adopt convergent positions, close to the electoral center. This result conflicts with the estimated positions of the candidates in opposed quadrants of the policy space. The difference between estimated positions and equilibrium positions allows us to estimate the influence of activist groups on the candidates. We compare this estimation with that of Israel for the election of 1996, and show that vote maximization leads low valence parties to position themselves far from the electoral origin. We argue that these low valence parties in Israel will be dependent on support of radical activist groups, resulting in a degree of political fragmentation.     

Personalization and the Promise of Contact Theory

The article discusses theoretical issues regarding the generalization of positive intergroup contact. It contrasts the models of Brewer and Miller (1984), Hewstone and Brown (1986), and Gaertner and Dovidio (2000). It elaborates the conceptual meaning of key concepts: intergroup salience, typicality of an outgroup member, decategorization, differentiation, and personalization. In particular, the article argues for the conceptual independence of differentiation (individuation) among social category members and personalized interaction (self-disclosure and self/other comparison) with category members. A hypothetical experiment is presented to illustrate the independent operationalization of the two constructs. Stronger benefits are expected for the latter. Whereas the benefits of differentiation primarily rest on cognitive effects, personalization also has motivational consequences: justifying one's self-disclosure and inducing increased trust.     

A sample size selection procedure for pairwise comparisons of means with unequal variances

A sample size selection procedure for paired comparisons of means is presented which controls the half width of the confidence intervals while allowing for unequal variances of treatment means.     

Applied regression analysis bibliography update 1988-89

The 25-page Bibliography in Applied Regression Analysis, 2nd edition, by N.R. Draper and H. Smith, published by Wiley in 1981, is extended by a list of selected references available during 1988-89, and a few older references inadvertently omitted from previous lists. It is hoped that this will be useful to regression practictioners. Items were chosen on the basis of their perceived relevance to practical applications (sometimes rather widely interpreted). The classification system used is that of the book.

The references were selected mostly from the issues of these journals: Annals of Statistics; Applied Statistics: Biometrika; Canadian Journal of Statistics; Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute; Journal of the American Statistical Association; Journal of Quality Technology; Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A and B; and Technometrics.

The author would appreciate being notified of errors, however slight, so that these do not persist in future compilations.     

Keeping Time: An Analysis of Errors in the Measurement of Unemployment Duration

This study uses longitudinal microdata from the Current Population Survey to examine the consistency with which unemployment duration is reported. An estimate of measurement error is proposed and analyzed. A significant negative relationship is found between the initial month's unemployment duration and the reported change between surveys. On average, persons who begin spells of unemployment in the second month report durations greater than the actual time elapsed. Overall, the average duration of unemployment in this sample may be overstated by at least two weeks. A brief discussion of some implications for empirical labor market research concludes the article.     

Predicting Assault by Juvenile Psychiatric Patients

This paper reports a post hoc study of the symptoms reported on admission of day and in-patient children, who subsequently proved to be violent to staff or other patients in a child and adolescent psychiatric hospital setting. Patients who were likely to be violent were easily identifiable from the data reported at the first interview. The early identification of such patients was thought to be of importance for their subsequent management, and for the maintenance of a safe environment within the hospital setting.     

Network Analysis in Ecuador and Nova Scotia: Some Critical Remarks*

L'analyse de réseau est appliquée ici à quelques caractéristiques sociales dominantes de communautés noires de l'Equateur occidental et de l'Est du Canada. Les systèmes sociaux des deux régions qui découlent des réseaux varient en fonction des règles du jeu (game style) des modèles culturels de redistribution, lesquels sont spécifiques aux mécanismes d'adaptation des deux régions. Le rôle du chercheur est d'importance capitale dans la détermination de la règle du jeu (game style) et dans la compréhension des fonctions de rétroaction (feed-back) culturelle divergente du réseau. Le sens du propos de l'auteur c'est que la principale valeur de l'analyse de réseau ne réside pas dans la délimitation et dans la classification des réseaux eux-mêmes, mais dans ce qu'elles peuvent nous renseigner sur les processus de changements sociaux et culturels adaptifs. Sous cet angle, l'analyse de réseau est envisagée d'une manière productive en tant qu'une stratégie de recherche sur le terrain. Network analysis is applied to some dominant social characteristics of Negro communities in western Ecuador and eastern Canada. Network-based social systems in both areas vary according to the culturally patterned game style of redistribution specific to the adaptive mechanisms of the two regions. The role of the investigator is crucial in delineating the game style, and in understanding divergent cultural feed-back aspects of network functions. It is argued that the principal value of network analysis lies not in the delineation and classification of networks themselves, but rather in what such delineation and classification can tell us about processes of social and cultural adaptive change. Viewed in this way, network analysis is most productively considered as a field strategy.