Fertility planning status: united states, 1965

Data concerning the planning circumstances of the interval preceding each pregnancy, collected from a national sample of 4810 married women, are used to establish the fertility planning status of each respondent as one of five classes: (1) never-pregnant; (2) number failure; (3) at least one timing failure; (4) at least one timing success; (5) neither success nor failure. For the ever-pregnant women who intended no more children, 32 percent of the exposed were number failures and 62 percent of the rest were timing failures. For the ever-pregnant women who intended more children, 67 percent of the exposed were timing failures. Women not exposed to the risk of timing failure because they claimed to want all of their pregnancies as soon as possible had similar characteristics to women reporting failures; accordingly the reliability of their reports is suspect. The probabilities of failure are well-patterned by race, religion and education: higher for Blacks than for Whites; within the latter, higher for Catholics than for Non-Catholics; and inversely related to education, except among White Catholics. Although uniformly high, the proportions classified as failures are probably under-estimates of the true values for completed families, because of misreporting and continuing exposure to risk, subsequent to interview.     

The Genesis of Self in Early Childhood*

The works of Cooley, Mead, and Piaget on the genesis and emergence of self in early childhood are examined in light of recent research in developmental linguistics and assessed in terms of the author's own participant observation studies in preschools. Central to the emergence of self is the acquisition of language which is conceptualized as a conversation of gestures. Young children take the standpoint of others and present selves as early as one year of age. The level of reflexivity present in their behaviors is a function of the complexity of the situation and the degree of familiarity with the objects confronted in that setting. Naturalistic studies of early childhood are proposed.     

Faith, Reason, and Charisma: Rudolf Sohm, Max Weber, and the Theology of Grace

Charismatic authority has been central to twentieth-century politics and theory, yet confusion about charisma is rife. Max Weber's classic texts on this subject have been a major source of insight, yet key features of his analysis remain obscure–so much so that many scholars who call themselves Weber's disciples defend views opposed to his. For Weber, charisma is a social status; for many "Weberians," charisma is a personal quality. For Weber, charisma is a quicksilver, unstable form of authority; for his errant followers, it is an existential limit to democracy. One reason for this contradiction is that, influenced by the theologian Rudolf Sohm, Weber used the vocabulary of the theology of grace. Many readers, unfamiliar with the nature of Weber's debt to theology, have thought that Weber, like Rudolf Sohm, viewed charisma as a divinely given personal quality. In fact, however, Max Weber's sociology of charisma is radically opposed to Sohm's theology.     

Probabilities and Possibilities: The Strategic Counseling Implications of the Chaos Theory of Careers

The chaos theory of careers emphasizes both stability and change in its account of career development. This article outlines counseling strategies derived from this emphasis in terms of convergent or probability thinking and emergent or possibility thinking. These 2 perspectives are characterized, and practical counseling strategy implications are provided. In addition, an illustrative technique example is described. The authors conclude that the challenges of modern career development demand the complementary and the interactive use of both probability and possibility thinking strategies.     

Constitutions, voting and democracy: A review

This review of William Riker's work suggests that his interest in rational choice theory was based on his desire to understand profound constitutional transformation in U.S. political history. Although he argued that “anything can happen in politics,” his use of the notion of heresthetic allowed him to focus on key contingent events. Indeed his later work added depth to his inductive generalizations on the nature of “federal bargains” and coalition formation.  Recent work by Austen-Smith and Banks, Merrill and Grofman, and Lijphart is also discussed in the light of Riker's earlier ideas on voting and democracy. Received: 25 February 2000/Accepted: 16 March 2000     

Semiparametric efficient estimation for the auxiliary outcome problem with the conditional mean model

The authors consider semiparametric efficient estimation of parameters in the conditional mean model for a simple incomplete data structure in which the outcome of interest is observed only for a random subset of subjects but covariates and surrogate (auxiliary) outcomes are observed for all. They use optimal estimating function theory to derive the semiparametric efficient score in closed form. They show that when covariates and auxiliary outcomes are discrete, a Horvitz‐Thompson type estimator with empirically estimated weights is semiparametric efficient. The authors give simulation studies validating the finite‐sample behaviour of the semiparametric efficient estimator and its asymptotic variance; they demonstrate the efficiency of the estimator in realistic settings.