Reconstruction of Birth Histories from Census and Household Survey Data

In this paper a new procedure for reconstructing birth histories from census or household survey data is developed. Given the number of children ever born, the number of deceased children, and the ‘own children’ birth history of each woman, it is possible to ‘fill in’ probabilistically the missing births of her deceased children and of children not present in the household. Thus, the procedure generates complete birth histories from which such measures as age-specific fertility rates, parity progression ratios, and birth interval measures may be estimated. For purposes of illustration and validation, the method is applied to the household survey data of the 1974 Korean National Fertility Survey, both to the entire sample of households, and to households with women from whom individual birth histories were collected. Age-specific fertility rates and parity progression measures estimated from the reconstructed birth histories are compared with those estimated by applying the ‘own children’ method, for the period 1960–74.     

Subnational migration in the United Kingdom: producing a consistent time series using a combination of available data and estimates

There is no single framework in place in the United Kingdom for collating and harmonizing the data on migration taking place between the subnational administrative units that constitute the home nations, together with the flows of international migration between these areas and the ‘rest of the world’. This paper proposes the construction of complete matrices of subnational migration statistics on an annual basis which can then be used to monitor migration trends throughout the UK in a comprehensive manner. The paper reviews how various ‘known’ flows are estimated by the national statistics agencies and develops estimates to fill in the gaps in the matrices. It then looks at changing patterns of migration in the UK between 2001/2002 and 2010/2011, showing that migration exhibits most activity in the middle of the decade. Flows within the home nations are the most consistent over time, while the patterns of international migration and migration across the borders of the home nations exhibit more substantial change. The latter flows, although relatively small in magnitude, have not previously been studied at the subnational level in any detail. Patterns of subnational internal and international net migration are found to be negatively correlated.     

What works for children — the political issues

Recent developments in United Kingdom politics are described that have had an impact on the development of evidence‐based policy for children. The notion of ‘what works’ is examined closely, leading to a suggestion that evaluators should, more appropriately, be concerned with ‘what is worth doing’ for children. The paper develops the idea of ‘robustness’ as a guiding principle for evaluation design and the interpretation of evidence so that valid conclusions can be drawn in a changing policy environment. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Institutional innovation, contingency and war: A review

For over forty years, Douglass North has sought in his work to determine those conditions that favor economic growth. In his most recent writings he has emphasized the institutional innovations of the state and how these are often preceded, or accompanied, by transformations in beliefs and constitutional structures. This review of North's work also discusses the efforts of a younger generation of scholars in economic and political history to apply the tools of public choice theory in constructing “institutional narratives”. Such narratives often focus on the nature of constitutional quandaries that polities have faced in the past. The conclusion suggests that the study of such quandaries can lead to a better understanding of how and why states fight wars. Indeed, it might be possible to use the insights so gained to design international institutions to foster economic growth and preserve peace. Received: 7 September 1998/Accepted: 28 May 1999     

Physician Market Power—Evidence From the Allocation of Malpractice Premiums

Based on evidence from variations in malpractice premiums, physicians have local market power, at least in some dimensions. It is observed that higher-cost physicians pass on a significant portion of idiosyncratic costs to patients as higher prices. I test two hypothesized sources of this market power: barriers to entry from specialization and relatively inelastic firm-level demand for certain services. Examining the relationship of physician-specific malpractice premiums to fees, I find no observable difference in the ability of surgeons and nonsurgeons to pass on these costs; however, both types of physicians pass them on more to surgical than to nonsurgical patients.     

EFFECTS OF USE OF COMPUTER IN FIRST-YEAR STATISTICS SEQUENCE ON STUDENT ATTITUDES*

The use of computers in teaching statistics can make an impact upon students in two ways. First, it can affect the amount and rate of learning of statistics. Second, it can affect student attitudes toward computers, statistics and quantitative methods. This note reports a study on the effects of the computer in teaching statistics on student attitudes. The data are based on pre- and post-course questionnaires administered in a first-year statistics sequence. The results partly confirm expectations, and partly raise questions for further investigation.     

How Do Cancer Risks Predicted From Animal Bioassays Compare with the Epidemiologic Evidence? The Case of Ethylene Dibromide

Cancer risks for ethylene dibromide (EDB) were estimated by fitting several linear non-threshold additive models to data from a gavage bioassay. Risks predicted by these models were compared to the observed cancer mortality among a cohort of workers occupationally exposed to the same chemical. Models that accounted for the shortened latency period in the gavaged rats predicted upper bound risks that were within a factor of 3 of the observed cancer deaths. Data from an animal inhalation study of EDB also were compatible with the epidemiologic data. These findings contradict those of Ramsey et al. (1978), who reported that extrapolation from animal data produced highly exaggerated risk estimates for EDB-exposed workers. This paper explores the reasons for these discrepant findings.