THE IMPACT OF PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION ON DECISION BEHAVIOR AND PERFORMANCE IN AN EXPERIMENTAL GAME

This research presents the results of a longitudinal experiment using experimental gaming. The results suggest that probabilistic information did change decision behavior and improve subject performance in the experiment. Moreover, there appeared to be a learning effect associated with the use of probabilistic information. Finally, the source of information (externally supplied by the researcher or generated by the subjects themselves) had an impact on decision behavior and performance in the experiment.     

Cycles versus equilibrium in evolutionary games

Mixed-strategy equilibria are typically rather unstable in evolutionary game theory. “Monocyclic” games, such as Rock–Paper–Scissors, have only mixed equilibria, some of which are “stable” in the sense that sequential best replies lead to them; yet, even these games are prone to stable cycles under discrete-time simultaneous best replies, giving an unusual equilibrium-selection problem. This article analyzes such games in a random-utility setting where changing strategies is costly, and the speed of the dynamic is, thus, endogenous. The stochastically stable outcome is determined by the cost of switching strategies; when switching costs are high, mixed equilibria are selected, whereas when switching costs are low, cycles are selected.     

Modeling Supply Chain Dynamics: A Multiagent Approach*

A global economy and increase in customer expectations in terms of cost and services have put a premium on effective supply chain reengineering. It is essential to perform risk-benefit analysis of reengineering alternatives before making a final decision. Simulation provides an effective pragmatic approach to detailed analysis and evaluation of supply chain design and management alternatives. However, the utility of this methodology is hampered by the time and effort required to develop models with sufficient fidelity to the actual supply chain of interest. In this paper, we describe a supply chain modeling framework designed to overcome this difficulty. Using our approach, supply chain models are composed from software components that represent types of supply chain agents (e.g., retailers, manufacturers, transporters), their constituent control elements (e.g., inventory policy), and their interaction protocols (e.g., message types). The underlying library of supply chain modeling components has been derived from analysis of several different supply chains. It provides a reusable base of domain-specific primitives that enables rapid development of customized decision support tools.     

Perceptions of the Ways of Mattering by People With Mental Illness

The Ways of Mattering questionnaire (N. E. Amundson, 1993, 2003) was developed to evaluate clients' perceptions of a counseling relationship. This study reports the construct and convergent validities of the Ways of Mattering as well as the internal consistency of each of its subscales for people with mental illness who were registered in supported employment programs. The questionnaire demonstrated satisfactory validity and reliability with this population. The instrument could be useful for identifying the basic and positive elements required to establish a solid foundation for developing a working alliance between the counselor and the client.     

The Confederate Constitution, Tariffs, and the Laffer Relationship

This article offers an example of a national constitution, that of the Confederate States of America, which effectively constrained its fiscal authorities to tax rates on the lower end of the Laffer relationship. The taxes were Confederate import tariffs. Drawing on primary sources, the paper documents the role that this de facto capping of tariff rates played in the history of the drafting of the Confederate Constitution. That the Laffer relationship found constitutional expression for an important tax suggests that the "tariff" might have played a more significant role in the North–South conflict than is currently acknowledged.     

Portent Lore and Medieval Popular Culture

Norman R. Smith begins his essay by pointing out that there is no such thing as “popular” monster lore (teratology) in the Middle Ages, but goes on to say that a knowledge of the teratological thought of, say, Isidore of Seville, may give us a very good insight into the popular thoughtof the day. Ideas concerning “monstrous births,” considered portentous until recent times, tell us a great deal about the concepts men had of themselves in relation to their world, their god, and their historical place, factors which illuminate the imaginatively constructed ideas and their popularity during the Renaissance. Monster lore, of course, remains popular in our own day, hence our passionate interest in the Loch Ness Monster and our devotion to the myriad types of Frankenstein that have appeared recently, a fact that perhaps links us and our time in a rather startling way to the Middle Ages.     

Designs to guard against outliers in the présence or absence of model bias

Optimality of experimental design is considered in the situation in which individual observations may be subject to a shift in mean. The criterion of minimum average integrated mean square error is examined in general and the consequences for first and second degree models in the présence or absence of model bias are discussed.     

Adapting the jury trial for program evaluation: A report of an experience

A portion of the graduate program in clinical community psychology at SUNY Buffalo was subjected to a jury trial as a form of program evaluation. The theory of the trial as evaluation, the problems of implementation, and a posttrial evaluation are discussed. The trial, while time-consuming, especially in its pretrial phases, has the potential for presenting a dramatic picture of a program through the medium of human testimony. The jury was able to arrive at clear decisions on questions put to it, with a high degree of confidence. Decision makers accepted some of the jury's conclusions, and subjective evidence suggests that many of the controversial issues which generated the trial were resolved for the group by the procedure. The posttrial evaluation revealed limitations, such as evidence which was not presented at the trial. The experience proved useful for purposes of interdisciplinary education, providing another lens through which the evaluation problem could be viewed.     

Review—Feature

Book Reviews are in this Articles.
Class, Codes and Control, Volume I: Theoretical Studies Towards a Sociology of Language. By Basil Bernstein.
Class, Codes and Control, Volume II: Applied Studies Towards a Sociology of Language, edited by Basil Bernstein.