Tail-Adaptive Location Rank Test for the Generalized Secant Hyperbolic Distribution

The generalized secant hyperbolic distribution (GSHD) was recently introduced as a modeling tool in data analysis. The GSHD is a unimodal distribution that is completely specified by location, scale, and shape parameters. It has also been shown elsewhere that the rank procedures of location are regular, robust, and asymptotically fully efficient. In this article, we study certain tail weight measures for the GSHD and introduce a tail-adaptive rank procedure of location based on those tail weight measures. We investigate the properties of the new adaptive rank procedure and compare it to some conventional estimators.     

The Infringement of the Right to Establish a Family for Jewish Spouses Who Are Mutually Proscribed from Marrying Each Other

Abstract

The article focuses on one of the most painful experiences in intimate relationships and unveils a hitherto unexplored type of human right infringement, namely the right to establish a family in Israel, purported to be a democratic state. Thousands of couples are proscribed from marrying each other every year in Israel. This paper focuses on Jewish couples consisting of male Cohanim (descendants of Jewish priests) and female divorcées, as one among other types of forbidden marriages. Four themes emerged from data analysis of narratives of 26 interviewees, which converged to a common motif of liminality of Cohen-divorcée couples. Based on empirical data, I describe the predicament attendant to this human rights violation which is transmitted to offspring of these couples. The article argues that this liminality undermines the basic rationale of the prevailing millet (personal law) system and discusses the implications of this liminality for human rights and religion-state relations.     

Returning to YTS: the long-term impact of youth training scheme participation

ABSTRACT

Shortly after leaving Leicester for Scotland Andy Furlong began to wrestle with the complexities of school to work transitions as captured by the 1986 sweep of the British Cohort Study (BCS). His analysis was published as Schooling for Jobs. Although a relatively short text, this book was vitally important as it documented in detail, for the first time, the changes to career preparations of British secondary school children at the mid-point of a decade where the impact of deindustrialising processes, coupled with the neo-liberal policies of the political right, had ravaged the UK economy and decimated the youth labour market. The mid 1980s were a turning point that marked a shift to ‘individuals’ having responsibility for future career successes and the blaming of young people themselves for any perceived labour market failings. Central to this process was the Youth Training Scheme (YTS). Based on recent collaborations with Andy exploring YTS we have two main aims here. First, we revisit the BCS data to update the story and answer three interrelated questions: (i) what happened to the YTS participants from Furlong’s analysis?; (ii) what were the long-term career and life ‘impacts’ for those who participated in YTS during the 1980s?; and (iii) were these job substitution schemes or gateways to real and meaningful work? Second, we conclude by reflecting upon this aspect of Andy’s legacy and the shape of future research on youth training schemes.     

Non-government organization study awards: enhancing successful completion of social work qualification

ABSTRACT

The current study used a sequential, exploratory mixed-method design to explore how a social work study scholarship implemented in Aotearoa New Zealand impacted on recipients’ qualification completion and their professional and practice competence. Phase one involved 13 individual interviews with past award recipients which described how the study award impacted on their qualification completion. Thematic analysis was used to extract themes. These themes were examined in the second phase through a quantitative battery completed by 107 past recipients to examine their professional and practice competence. The findings from interviews showed the award enabled recipients to complete their studies and improve their social work practice without causing undue stress or financial pressure on the recipient and their family. Quantitative analysis corroborated and extended these findings to demonstrate that the award contributed to lifting the level of social work knowledge, competence, and skills in the recipients. Accompanying the successful qualification completion, these qualified social workers were equipped with essential skills, promoting social work values and competence to contribute and safeguard the benefit of children, families, and communities. The awards offered a ‘wrap around’ support and was not limited by age or ethnicity but provided a support system to achieve qualification completion.     

Semiparametric Efficient Estimation in the Generalized Odds-Rate Class of Regression Models for Right-Censored Time-to-Event Data

The generalized odds-rate class of regression models for time to event data is indexed by a non-negative constant and assumes thatg(S(t|Z)) = (t) + Zwhere g(s) = log(^-1(s-) for > 0, g₀(s) = log(- log s), S(t|Z) is the survival function of the time to event for an individual with qx1 covariate vector Z, is a qx1 vector of unknown regression parameters, and (t) is some arbitrary increasing function of t. When =0, this model is equivalent to the proportional hazards model and when =1, this model reduces to the proportional odds model. In the presence of right censoring, we construct estimators for and exp((t)) and show that they are consistent and asymptotically normal. In addition, we show that the estimator for is semiparametric efficient in the sense that it attains the semiparametric variance bound.     

Dynamic Risk Management Systems: Hybrid Architecture and Offshore Platform Illustration

This paper describes and illustrates the architecture of computer-based Dynamic Risk Management Systems (DRMS) designed to assist real-time risk management decisions for complex physical systems, for example, engineered systems such as offshore platforms or medical systems such as patient treatment in Intensive Care Units. A key characteristic of the DRMSs that we describe is that they are hybrid, combining the powers of Probabilistic Risk Analysis methods and heuristic Artificial Intelligence techniques. A control module determines whether the situation corresponds to a specific rule or regulation, and is clear enough or urgent enough for an expert system to make an immediate recommendation without further analysis of the risks involved. Alternatively, if time permits and if the uncertainties justify it, a risk and decision analysis module formulates and evaluates options, including that of gathering further information. This feature is particularly critical since, most of the time, the physical system is only partially observable, i.e., the signals observed may not permit unambiguous characterization of its state. The DRMS structure is also dynamic in that, for a given time window (e.g., 1 day or 1 hour), it anticipates the physical system's state (and, when appropriate, performs a risk analysis) accounting for its evolution, its mode of operations, the predicted external loads and problems, and the possible changes in the set of available options. Therefore, we specifically address the issue of dynamic information gathering for decision-making purposes. The concepts are illustrated focusing on the risk and decision analysis modules for a particular case of real-time risk management on board offshore oil platforms, namely of two types of gas compressor leaks, one progressive and one catastrophic. We describe briefly the DRMS proof-of-concept produced at Stanford, and the prototype (ARMS) that is being constructed by Bureau Veritas (Paris) based on these concepts.     

A panel study of migration,self-selection and household real income

The impact of migration on income for Swedish multi-adult households is examined using panel data pertaining to a sample of stable household constellations during the period 1980–1990. In contrast to previous studies, data on household disposable income is employed in estimating the income function. The empirical results indicate no significant effect on real disposable income from migration. In addition, the hypothesis of no self-selection, or zero correlation between the errors in the decision function and the income function, cannot be rejected. Received: 10 May 1995 / Accepted: 14 August 1996     

Convergence of Slice Sampler Markov Chains

We analyse theoretical properties of the slice sampler. We find that the algorithm has extremely robust geometric ergodicity properties. For the case of just one auxiliary variable, we demonstrate that the algorithm is stochastically monotone, and we deduce analytic bounds on the total variation distance from stationarity of the method by using Foster–Lyapunov drift condition methodology.     

AN IMPROVED HEURISTIC FOR STAFFING TELEPHONE CALL CENTERS WITH LIMITED OPERATING HOURS

Many telephone call centers that experience cyclic and random customer demand adjust their staffing over the day in an attempt to provide a consistent target level of customer service. The standard and widely used staffing method, which we call the stationary independent period by period (SIPP) approach, divides the workday into planning periods and uses a series of stationary independent Erlang‐c queuing models—one for each planning period—to estimate minimum staffing needs. Our research evaluates and improves upon this commonly used heuristic for those telephone call centers with limited hours of operation during the workday. We show that the SIPP approach often suggests staffing that is substantially too low to achieve the targeted customer service levels (probability of customer delay) during critical periods. The major reasons for SIPP‘ s shortfall are as follows: (1) SIPP's failure to account for the time lag between the peak in customer demand and when system congestion actually peaks; and (2) SIPP’ s use of the planning period average arrival rate, thereby assuming that the arrival rate is constant during the period. We identify specific domains for which SIPP tends to suggest inadequate staffing. Based on an analysis of the factors that influence the magnitude of the lag in infinite server systems that start empty and idle, we propose and test two simple “lagged” SIPP modifications that, in most situations, consistently achieve the service target with only modest increases in staffing.     

Return Migration and the Problem of Reintegration

This article proposes a programme approach for achieving the social and economic reintegration of all categories of return migrants. As former exiles who have returned to their country of origin are no longer refugees, some government agencies need to organize the reception of, and provide assistance to, returnees. But without long-term planning, ad hoc committees are unable to be effective facilitators of the reintegration process. The article suggests a list of major elements necessary for an effective reintegration programme, and argues that governments should focus on the institutional mechanism of programme management, including the creation of a responsible agency or agencies. The management structure should be based in the National Planning Ministry of government. Establishment of an effective mechanism would be likely to inspire donor confidence; and 'homecoming' would no longer be a nightmare for potential returnees trying to reintegrate.