Estimates of Own Lethal Risks and Anchoring Effects

The paper reports on an experiment testing whether agents perceive correctly the lethal risks they face personally. The results suggest that subjects exhibit comparable biases when making predictions for their own-age-cohort, or for the entire population (i.e. agents overestimate rare risks, and underestimate common risks). The hypothesis that agents have better knowledge of their own risks, however, cannot be dismissed entirely, as responses in the own-age-cohort survey are more homogenous and better ordered. Finally, it is shown that administering surveys in succession can generate anchoring effects, which may explain why our conclusions differ markedly from a previous study. JEL Classification D8 ⋅ C9     

Socio‐Emotional Context and Adolescents' Decision Making: The Experience of Regret and Relief After Social Comparison

Many studies indicate that adolescents are hypersensitive to rewards in salient socio‐emotional contexts. However, little is known about adolescents' sensitivity to complex negative emotions. To study the development of the ability to experience regret and relief, children, adolescents, and young adults performed a gambling task in a socio‐emotional context of competition, in which they were informed that their outcome would be compared with that of a competitor. The context of competition impacted the feelings of regret and relief in adolescents. When adolescents experienced an initial negative outcome, their feeling of relief was reinforced. However, they did not seem to experience regret in the social context of competition. These results provide a possible explanation for adolescents' enhanced risk seeking.     

Simple Bounds on the Value of a Reputation

We introduce entropy techniques to study the classical reputation model in which a long‐run player faces a series of short‐run players. The long‐run player's actions are possibly imperfectly observed. We derive explicit lower and upper bounds on the equilibrium payoffs to the long‐run player.     

DISTANCE TO RETIREMENT AND OLDER WORKERS‘ EMPLOYMENT: THE CASE FOR DELAYING THE RETIREMENT AGE

This paper presents empirical evidence and a theoretical foundation in favor of the view that the retirement age decision affects older workers' employment prior to retirement. To the extent that there are search frictions on the labor market, the return on jobs is determined by their expected duration: The time to retirement is then key to understanding older workers' employment. Countries with a retirement age of 60 are indeed characterized by lower employment rates for workers aged 55–59. Based on the French Labor Force Survey, we show that the likelihood of employment is significantly affected by the distance to retirement, in addition to age and other relevant variables. We then extend McCall's job search model by explicitly integrating life‐cycle features with the retirement decision. Using simulations, we show that the distance effect in interaction with the generosity of unemployment benefits and the depressed demand for older workers explains the low rate of employment just before the eligibility age for the Social Security pension. Finally, we show that implementing actuarially fair schemes not only extends the retirement age, but also encourages a more intensive job search by older unemployed workers. (JEL: J22, J26, H55)