不确定需求下考虑大数据投资决策的供应链鲁棒优化及协调模型

针对由数据公司、制造商和零售商组成的三级供应链系统,在仅知需求均值和方差信息下,建立了集中和分散两种决策情况下的供应链鲁棒优化模型。集中决策下,全体供应链成员共同决定产品零售价和产品生产数量;分散决策下,数据公司作为主方,决定需求信息零售价,制造商和零售商作为从方,分别决定产品批发价和产品订货数量。针对两种决策下的供应链鲁棒优化模型,给出了相应的最优决策,分析了大数据投资成本、消费者异质性需求满足程度等系统参数对供应链决策的影响。进一步,设计了能实现三级供应链完美协调的利润共享契约。最后,通过数值算例验证了所建模型和契约协调的有效性。研究表明,在集中和分散决策下,大数据投资成本只有在满足一定条件下,投资大数据才有利于供应链成员及系统利润的改善。特别地,与无协调时的情况相比,虽然协调机制下相关系统参数对供应链成员决策及利润绩效的作用机制存在差异,但文中提出的利润共享契约在一定条件下能够显著改进供应链成员利润且实现供应链完美协调。     

Racial and Ethnic Differences in the Prevalence of Depressive Symptoms Among U.S. Nursing Home Residents

This study aimed to examine racial and ethnic differences in significant depressive symptoms among long-term nursing home residents. We analyzed the 2014 national Minimum Data Set linked to a nursing home file and estimated multivariable logistic regressions to determine the associations of race and ethnicities with significant depressive symptoms (score ≥ 10 on the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire [PHQ-9] scale) and whether associations were explained by resident and nursing home covariates. Stratified analyses further determined independent associations in subgroups of residents. We found that the prevalence rate of PHQ-9 scores ≥ 10 was 8.8% among non-Hispanic White residents (n = 653,031) and 7.4%, 6.9%, and 6.6% among Black (n = 97,629), Hispanic (n = 39,752), and Asian (n = 16,636) residents, respectively. The reduced likelihoods of significant depressive symptoms for minority residents compared to non-Hispanic Whites persisted after sequential adjustments for resident and nursing home covariates, as well as in stratified analyses. The persistently lower rate of significant depressive symptoms among racial and ethnic minority residents suggests that training of nursing home caregivers for culturally sensitive depression screening is needed for improved symptom recognition among minority residents.     

Delayed probabilistic risk attitude: a parametric approach

Theory and Decision - Experimental studies suggest that individuals exhibit more risk aversion in choices among prospects when the payment and resolution of uncertainty are immediate relative to...     

How Effective are Helpers to Older Adults’ Life Satisfaction?

The effectiveness of help received from home care workers and volunteers to the life satisfaction of community-dwelling older adults is vital but uncharted. To address the effectiveness, this study aims to optimize the use of social resources for the older adults’ life quality. The study thus surveyed 398 community-dwelling older adults in a city of China about the help and life satisfaction. Results showed a significant positive effect of help from home care workers, but not that from volunteers, on the older adult’s life satisfaction. Moreover, the effect of help from volunteers was significantly greater when the older adult had higher education or lower family income. These effects are explicable with resource theory and need fulfillment theory. They imply the worth of promoting help from home care workers generally and volunteers conditionally to champion older adults’ life satisfaction.     

科学发展观是科学精神和人文精神的综合

科学与人文的综合是人类文化特别是中国文化的基本逻辑和结构。从马克思、恩格斯到毛泽东、邓小平．再到江泽民,都明确指出马克思主义是科学,科学精神无疑是马克思主义的本质。马克思主义作为社会科学,是对人类人文精神的不断继承和发展。科学发展观以“科学”命名,规定“以人为本为核心”,是马克思主义科学精神和人文精神的高度自觉,是二者的完美结合,实现了逻辑和结构的完善。     

当代政府对民间信仰管理理念的转变与导向

自上世纪八十年代以来,全国各地的民间信仰逐渐得到恢复与发展.在这个过程中,民间信仰对于民众的生活既有积极的、也有消极的影响.因此,政府对民间信仰的管理也显得日益紧迫.政府在对民间信仰加强管理中,应明确两种“逻辑”——日常生活逻辑与政治管理逻辑;转变对民间信仰的态度——与其打击,不如疏导;通过政府公祭向民众传递特定的社会价值观,从而发挥对民间信仰的导向作用;继续完善非物质文化遗产制度,发挥对某些民间信仰的保护作用;发掘某些民间信仰活动中文化娱乐的因素,使其成为民众表达社会情感的渠道之一;转变思维方式,将民间信仰视为潜在的新的经济增长点.     

基于CDIO的机械设计专业方向课程群新体系研究

CDIO教育是为生产、建设、管理、服务第一线培养适用的高等技术应用性人才。而建立和培养一支符合CDIO教育发展要求的"双师型"师资队伍,是CDIO教育成功的根本保证。文章分析了CDIO模式下我国工科院校教师队伍培养存在的误区、CDIO模式下我国工科院校"双师型"教师的具体内涵、提出了CDIO模式下工科院校"双师型"教师培养的具体措施。     

数字媒介特征与变革趋势探析

媒介变革的诱因源于人类传播的现实需要,而现代科技的快速发展和进步则是媒介变革的推动力。现代数字媒介日益表现出智能化、网络化、多媒体化等基本特征,形成了独特的社会文化和审美范式。未来媒介变革将进一步突显数字化、竞争与融合、裂变与派生等发展趋势。     

收入水平、收入结构与中国农村妇女生育意愿——基于CHNS数据的实证分析

利用中国健康与营养调查（CHNS）2006年的数据,本文采用负二项回归方法考察了农村经济发展带来的收入水平和收入结构的变化对妇女生育意愿的影响。结果表明,当加入收入结构变量后,家庭持久总收入对妇女期望孩子数的负向影响显著地降低,而且相比于收入水平,收入结构在妇女的生育意愿中扮演着更为重要的角色。因而在未来人口政策的制定过程中,除了不断强调提高农民收入外,也要进一步采取各种措施促进我国农村劳动力的转移,提高农民的非农收入比重,这对于农村生育意愿的转变至关重要。     

关于中国红色网站建设的调查研究——以中国红色网站联盟为基点

当前,中国许多红色网站已经具备了教育、服务、娱乐功能,并具有主题鲜明、思想性强,内容丰富、知识性强,范围广泛、服务性强等特点,为满足广大网民的精神需求发挥了重要作用。但还存在诸如区域分布不均衡,域名注册不统一,访问的成功率低、速度慢,访问量低,更新频率低,虚拟咨询功能不够完善,建而不管、维护不力等问题。提高红色网站建设质量,需要从观念、侧重点、资金、组织结构、教育模式和宣传五个角度入手加强和改进。