Divergent Trends in the Effects of Early Life Factors on Adult Health

Population Research and Policy Review - Life course theories have shaped social and health scientists’ understanding of the origins and pathways of health, aging, and mortality. However, few...     

The Unbalance Penalisation Method for Metrics of Social Progress

This study contributes to the debate on the development of aggregate metrics of societal progress. Summarising societal progress into a single number poses various methodological challenges, including the choice of indicators, normalisation, weighting and aggregation. This paper addresses the issue of aggregation in the case of metrics of well-being and uses as a case study the European Union regional Social Progress Index—EU-SPI—published by the European Commission. The index is an aggregate measure of 55 social and environmental indicators observed for all the European regions grouped into 12 components. In metrics of this type, while complete substitutability among components is rarely acceptable, controlling their level of substitutability is highly desirable. To this aim, we adopt a modified version of the unbalance penalisation approach originally proposed by Casadio Tarabusi and Guarini (Soc Indic Res 112:9–45, 2013). A penalisation is applied to the regions whose performance across the index components is unbalanced, that is when they perform well on some components but worse on others. The penalisation applied by this approach depends on two parameters that, in its original formulation, are generally arbitrarily chosen. We design a data-driven approach allowing for an informed choice of the penalisation parameters. The comparison between the EU-SPI original and penalised scores shows that the penalisation effect is particularly evident for regions with a strongly unbalanced profile across the components. The proposed method allows for adjusting the level of substitutability between components when constructing an aggregate metric, an important functionality especially when measuring societal progress for policy-making.

     

DEMOCRATIC PEACE AND ELECTORAL ACCOUNTABILITY

Democracies rarely engage in conflicts with one another, though they are not averse to fighting autocracies. We exploit the existence in many countries of executive term limits to show that electoral accountability is the key reason behind this “democratic peace” phenomenon. We construct a new dataset of term limits for a sample of 177 countries over the 1816–2001 period, and combine this information with a large dataset of interstate conflicts. Our empirical analysis shows that, although democracies are significantly less likely to fight each other, democracies with leaders who face binding term limits are as conflict prone as autocracies. The study of electoral calendars confirms the importance of re‐election incentives: in democracies with two‐term limits, conflicts are less likely to occur during the executive's first mandate than in the last one. Our findings support the Kantian idea that elections act as a discipline device, deterring leaders from engaging in costly conflicts.     

Anonymizing binary and small tables is hard to approximate

The problem of publishing personal data without giving up privacy is becoming increasingly important. An interesting formalization recently proposed is the k-anonymity. This approach requires that the rows in a table are clustered in sets of size at least k and that all the rows in a cluster become the same tuple, after the suppression of some records. The natural optimization problem, where the goal is to minimize the number of suppressed entries, is known to be NP-hard when the values are over a ternary alphabet, k=3 and the rows length is unbounded. In this paper we give a lower bound on the approximation factor that any polynomial-time algorithm can achieve on two restrictions of the problem, namely (i) when the records values are over a binary alphabet and k=3, and (ii) when the records have length at most 8 and k=4, showing that these restrictions of the problem are APX-hard.     

Increasingly heterogeneous ages at first birth by education in Southern European and Anglo-American family-policy regimes: A seven-country comparison by birth cohort

According to the 'reproductive polarization' hypothesis, family-policy regimes unfavourable to the combination of employment with motherhood generate greater socio-economic differentials in fertility than other regimes. This hypothesis has been tested mainly for 'liberal' Anglo-American regimes. To investigate the effects elsewhere, we compared education differentials in age at first birth among native-born women of 1950s and 1960s birth cohorts in seven countries representing three regime types. Women with low educational attainment have continued to have first births early, not only in Britain and the USA but also in Greece, Italy, and Spain. Women at all other levels of education have experienced a shift towards later first births, a shift that has been largest in Southern Europe. Unlike the educationally heterogeneous changes in age pattern at first birth seen under the Southern European and Anglo-American family-policy regimes, the changes across birth cohorts in the study's two 'universalistic' countries, Norway and France, have been educationally homogeneous.     

Learning Stimulus‐Location Associations in 8‐ and 11‐Month‐Old Infants: Multimodal Versus Unimodal Information

Research on the influence of multimodal information on infants' learning is inconclusive. While one line of research finds that multimodal input has a negative effect on learning, another finds positive effects. The present study aims to shed some new light on this discussion by studying the influence of multimodal information and accompanying stimulus complexity on the learning process. We assessed the influence of multimodal input on the trial‐by‐trial learning of 8‐ and 11‐month‐old infants. Using an anticipatory eye movement paradigm, we measured how infants learn to anticipate the correct stimulus–location associations when exposed to visual‐only, auditory‐only (unimodal), or auditory and visual (multimodal) information. Our results show that infants in both the multimodal and visual‐only conditions learned the stimulus–location associations. Although infants in the visual‐only condition appeared to learn in fewer trials, infants in the multimodal condition showed better anticipating behavior: as a group, they had a higher chance of anticipating correctly on more consecutive trials than infants in the visual‐only condition. These findings suggest that effects of multimodal information on infant learning operate chiefly through effects on infants' attention.     

The Role of Declarative Pointing in Developing a Theory of Mind

It has been suggested that the child's capacity to represent and influence another person's attentional state about an object or event in triadic interactions (declarative communication) is an early manifestation of social understanding in the second year of life. This study tested the following predictions: First, in typically developing children declarative pointing emerges later than imperative pointing. Second, the capacity to use declarative pointing is linked to the understanding of other's intentions (i.e., to the capacity to reproduce other's intended acts after seeing failed attempts to perform these acts). The study was conducted in 2 phases. In the first phase, the parents of 133 typically developing infants completed the Questionnaire on Pointing Gesture, which allowed the identification of babies able to use pointing in familiar contexts. Of these children, 40 participated in the experiment and were tested on 2 tasks: a new task designed to elicit production and comprehension of imperative and declarative pointing, and a modified version of Meltzoff's (1995) task designed to assess understanding of others' intentions. Tasks were administered to each participant in 2 sessions carried out at 3‐month intervals. Children were 12 months old on average at the 1st session and 15 months old on average at the 2nd session. Results showed that children produced and understood declarative pointing later than imperative pointing. Furthermore, production of declarative pointing was clearly linked to understanding of others' intentions. No relation was found between production and comprehension of imperative pointing and intention understanding. Implications from the association between declarative pointing and inferring other's intentions are discussed.