Fiducial inference in combining expert judgements

In the expert use problem, hierarchical models provide an ideal perspective for classifying understanding and generalising the aggregative algoithms suitable to compose experts' opinions in a single synthesis distribution. After suggesting to look at Peter A. Morris' (1971, 1974, 1977) Bayesian model in such a light, this paper addresses the problem of modelling the multidimensional ‘performance function’, which encodes aggregator's beliefs about each expert's assessment ability and the degree of dependence among the experts. Whenever the aggregator has not an empirically founded probability distribution for the experts' performances, the proposed fiducial procedure provides a rational and very flexible tool for enabling the performance function to be specified with a relatively small number of assessments: moreover, it warrants aggregator's beliefs about the experts in terms of personal long run frequencies.     

Analyse visuelle e représentation de la réalité

The author's objective is to establish a relationship between the theoretical structure at the basis of a qualitative sociological analysis and the forms of visual representation of social reality, such as photography and social documentaries. Visual material becomes an object of analysis when it refers to a society that talks about itself and when it reproduces a reality which it records and makes nameable. The theme of observation is characterized by a complex activity in which perception, imagination, and representation are different functions from the sociological point of view, yet strongly connected because they make it possible for the researcher to interact visually with social reality. Observation procedures ask sociologists to have an eye capable of recognizing and perceiving in a representative way the experiences they have lived and the social facts they have observed and described. These must be portrayed not only as suggestive visual metaphors, but also as a consequence of ‘sensitive hearing’ which is essential in all research phases, from anthropology to ethnography and sociology.     

(Micro)mobility,disability and resilience: exploring well-being among youth with physical disabilities

This paper explores the daily (micro)mobilities that youth with a visual or auditory impairment use to sustain well-being. Geographical research suggests that mobility is a universal phenomenon referred to the capacity to navigate one’s way through different spaces and places. Using a qualitative cross-cultural, visual methods approach to research with vulnerable youth, including four participants with visual or auditory impairments, we demonstrate that everyday patterns of (micro)mobilities through the youth’s home, school and community help disabled youth create pathways to resilience. The implications of these findings are discussed in relation to services that promote resilience against ableist beliefs.     

Italian Urban Plans: Diversified Approaches and Methods for Assessing Their Quality

This article poses the difficult task of providing a brief overview of Italian urban planning, difficult to understand for foreign observers because each Region has different legislation and urban planning tools. The paper describes an original methodology that evaluates the quality of the approach differentiated as (1) ‘of the plan’ (reformist, participative, from the territory); (2) ‘in the plan’ (integrated strategic, sustainable); (3) ‘with the plan’ (conformative, methodological, recompositional, systemic-infrastructural); and (4) ‘beyond the plan’ (beyond governance methodologies). The paper also compares aspects of quality present in plans for large, medium and small Italian cities. The conclusions review factors of excellence that may be used in other international scenarios.     

A parametric model fitting time to first event for overdispersed data: application to time to relapse in multiple sclerosis

In this article, we propose a parametric model for the distribution of time to first event when events are overdispersed and can be properly fitted by a Negative Binomial distribution. This is a very common situation in medical statistics, when the occurrence of events is summarized as a count for each patient and the simple Poisson model is not adequate to account for overdispersion of data. In this situation, studying the time of occurrence of the first event can be of interest. From the Negative Binomial distribution of counts, we derive a new parametric model for time to first event and apply it to fit the distribution of time to first relapse in multiple sclerosis (MS). We develop the regression model with methods for covariate estimation. We show that, as the Negative Binomial model properly fits relapse counts data, this new model matches quite perfectly the distribution of time to first relapse, as tested in two large datasets of MS patients. Finally we compare its performance, when fitting time to first relapse in MS, with other models widely used in survival analysis (the semiparametric Cox model and the parametric exponential, Weibull, log-logistic and log-normal models).     

The Global Compact for Migration: what could it mean for women and gender relations?

ABSTRACT

Under half of international migrants throughout the world are women. While large movements of people, human rights and humanitarian crises, and migrant deaths are not new, the public attention given to the arrivals of refugees and migrants to the shores of Europe has compelled governments to engage in a multilateral manner. In September 2016, the United Nations General Assembly held its first-ever summit dedicated to large movements of refugees and migrants, reaffirming the importance of existing legal instruments to protect refugees and migrants, and also foreseeing the development of two new Global Compacts: one on refugees, and the other for safe, orderly and regular migration. This article examines the process to elaborate the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration from a gender-responsive perspective. It takes into consideration the advocacy role that the Women in Migration Network and other civil society stakeholders have played in its development, identifies the various opportunities and gaps within the Global Compact, and explores how women’s organisations and development organisations can promote change for women in migration under the new Global Compact.     

Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks for Modeling the Respondent Measurement Error

In this article, Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) are proposed as a tool to model measurement errors in a categorical variable due to respondent. A mixed measurement error model is presented and an OOBN implementing such a model is introduced. The insertion of evidence represented by the observed value and its propagation throughout the network yields for each unit the probability distribution of the true value given the observed. Two methods are used to predict the individual true value and their performance is evaluated via simulation.     

Measuring the impact of the Web: Rasch modelling for survey evaluation

In 2012, the World Wide Web Foundation launched for the first time the Web Index (WI), which combines the existing secondary data with new primary data to rank countries according to their progress and use of the Web. Primary data are gathered via a multi-country specifically designed questionnaire. The aim of our analysis is (1) to evaluate the measurement properties of the expert assessment survey and to provide survey designers with some insights into possible problematic questions and/or unexpectedly behaving countries and (2) to assess the experts’ perception of the state and the value of the Web. To do so the Rating Scale Rasch model is employed. Results show that about 10% of survey questions are detected as misfitting and need to be reworded. Possible reasons are: counter-orientation with respect to the WI polarity, difficulty in understanding the question's words or binary instead of the multiple response scale. Country analysis shows that no country can be considered as an outlier due to notable unexpected pattern of answers. Since the survey is to be expanded in future editions of the WI, the results of our analysis are very important in pin-pointing the questions most in need of refinement for the next edition of the Index.