Wavelet processes and adaptive estimation of the evolutionary wavelet spectrum

This paper defines and studies a new class of non-stationary random processes constructed from discrete non-decimated wavelets which generalizes the Cramér (Fourier) representation of stationary time series. We define an evolutionary wavelet spectrum (EWS) which quantifies how process power varies locally over time and scale. We show how the EWS may be rigorously estimated by a smoothed wavelet periodogram and how both these quantities may be inverted to provide an estimable time-localized autocovariance. We illustrate our theory with a pedagogical example based on discrete non-decimated Haar wavelets and also a real medical time series example.     

Scenario-Based Risk Assessment of Multi-Use Chemicals: Application to Solvents

The risk through chemical exposure is commonly characterized by ratios of exposure concentrations and effect levels (risk quotients). For chemicals with many different applications such as solvents, however, in addition to the risk quotients of different exposure situations it is useful to determine the corresponding numbers of exposed individuals, that is, not only the magnitude but also the extent of the risk. To this end, the Scenario-Based Risk Assessment (SceBRA) method has been developed that makes use of a large set of scenarios, each of which describes a typical situation regarding handling a solvent or solvent-containing product. The scenarios cover the life-cycle steps of production, distribution, and use of solvents. For each scenario, SceBRA provides the risk quotient, r, and the number of exposed individuals, N. This study investigated seven solvents that are used in large amounts in Switzerland. For each solvent, characteristic distributions of r and N values were calculated, making it possible to compare different solvents with respect to their risk profile. Graphical representations of the r, N data provide an informative way for analyzing and communicating the results of SceBRA.     

Was leistet Organisationsentwicklung?

Potentials of organization development (OD) are discussed from the perspectives of organization/client, counselling and science. The focal questions of the discussion are: What can OD achieve compared to strategy consulting? How can both forms be sensibly combined? What are the potentials of a psychologically based form of organizational counselling? Which (potentially latent) functions do organizational consulting / OD fulfil for the client organization? The discussion closes with considerations regarding a potential professionalization and the future of OD.     

Monitoring Socio-demographic Risk: A Cohort Analysis of Families Using Census Micro-Data

We apply cohort techniques to monitor four indicators of socio-demographic risk crucial to family wellbeing; namely, income, employment, education, and housing. The data were derived from New Zealand??s five-yearly Census for the period 1981?C2006. This allowed us to track birth cohorts of mothers (and their families) over six successive New Zealand censuses focusing on the main childrearing ages of 20?C59. This produced ten cohorts??termed ??open familial cohorts????ranging from mothers born in the period 1932?C1937 through to 1977?C1981. We present age, period and cohort analyses. Families in which the mother is in her early 20s were the most vulnerable, with the lowest incomes, the greatest risk of worklessnes, and the lowest levels of home ownership. Of particular interest is that those in the most recent cohorts??born since 1967??were worse off compared to earlier cohorts. The period from the mid-1980s to the mid-to-late 1990s was one of greatest ??socio-demographic risk??, with the lowest work, income and education prospects over the 25?years. The picture on generational profiles was mixed. Contrary to popular mythology the ??baby-boomer?? cohorts did not enjoy an unqualified advantage over others; indeed the most recent cohorts were doing well, with relatively high incomes, education and work levels. The analysis is successful in identifying age and period effects over a period of major social change, and in documenting cohort experiences for each indicator, thus demonstrating the potential of constructing cohorts from routinely-collected census micro-data for monitoring and policy purposes.     

Categorizing Mistaken False Positives in Regulation of Human and Environmental Health

One of the concerns often voiced by critics of the precautionary principle is that a widespread regulatory application of the principle will lead to a large number of false positives (i.e., over-regulation of minor risks and regulation of nonexisting risks). The present article proposes a general definition of a regulatory false positive, and seeks to identify case studies that can be considered authentic regulatory false positives. Through a comprehensive review of the science policy literature for proclaimed false positives and interviews with authorities on regulation and the precautionary principle we identified 88 cases. Following a detailed analysis of these cases, we found that few of the cases mentioned in the literature can be considered to be authentic false positives. As a result, we have developed a number of different categories for these cases of "mistaken false positives," including: real risks, "The jury is still out," nonregulated proclaimed risks, "Too narrow a definition of risk," and risk-risk tradeoffs. These categories are defined and examples are presented in order to illustrate their key characteristics. On the basis of our analysis, we were able to identify only four cases that could be defined as regulatory false positives in the light of today's knowledge and recognized uncertainty: the Southern Corn Leaf Blight, the Swine Flu, Saccharin, and Food Irradiation in relation to consumer health. We conclude that concerns about false positives do not represent a reasonable argument against future application of the precautionary principle.     

Validation of the subtle and overt psychological abuse scale: an examination of construct validity

The Subtle and Overt Scale of Psychological Abuse (Marshall, 1999a) is a measure designed to examine previously unevaluated forms of psychological abuse. The scale was originally divided into seven subscales (overt: dominance, indifference, monitoring and discrediting; subtle: undermining, discounting, isolating). A sample of 172 women was used to evaluate the construct validity of this measure. In other words, the internal structure of the measure, its relation to other measures of physical and psychological abuse, and its relationship to other psychological outcomes. Empirical and theoretical approaches were used to replicate and examine the dimensions of this scale. Results revealed that this scale represents a unidimensional construct that is highly correlated to other measures of psychological abuse. Implications for future research and practice are discussed.