Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management

Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives. Here, we implement and improve on a classic decision-analytical model (Van Dantzig 1956) to: (i) capture tradeoffs across conflicting stakeholder objectives, (ii) demonstrate the consequences of structural uncertainties in the sea-level rise and storm surge models, and (iii) identify the parametric uncertainties that most strongly influence each objective using global sensitivity analysis. We find that the flood adaptation model produces potentially myopic solutions when formulated using traditional mean-centric decision theory. Moving from a single-objective problem formulation to one with multiobjective tradeoffs dramatically expands the decision space, and highlights the need for compromise solutions to address stakeholder preferences. We find deep structural uncertainties that have large effects on the model outcome, with the storm surge parameters accounting for the greatest impacts. Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions that local methods overlook, and that could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies.     

Strong convergence rates of probabilistic integrators for ordinary differential equations

Probabilistic integration of a continuous dynamical system is a way of systematically introducing discretisation error, at scales no larger than errors introduced by standard numerical discretisation, in order to enable thorough exploration of possible responses of the system to inputs. It is thus a potentially useful approach in a number of applications such as forward uncertainty quantification, inverse problems, and data assimilation. We extend the convergence analysis of probabilistic integrators for deterministic ordinary differential equations, as proposed by Conrad et al. (Stat Comput 27(4):1065–1082, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-016-9671-0), to establish mean-square convergence in the uniform norm on discrete- or continuous-time solutions under relaxed regularity assumptions on the driving vector fields and their induced flows. Specifically, we show that randomised high-order integrators for globally Lipschitz flows and randomised Euler integrators for dissipative vector fields with polynomially bounded local Lipschitz constants all have the same mean-square convergence rate as their deterministic counterparts, provided that the variance of the integration noise is not of higher order than the corresponding deterministic integrator. These and similar results are proven for probabilistic integrators where the random perturbations may be state-dependent, non-Gaussian, or non-centred random variables.

     

Attention and Executive Functions as Mediators of Attachment and Behavior Problems

The purpose of this study was to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the relation between early parent‐child interactions and subsequent behavior problems and how certain cognitive processes mediate this relation. Specifically, this study investigated whether attention, inhibition, and planning skills mediate the relation between attachment security and behavior problems. Data were collected as part of the National Institute of Child Health and Development‐Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development when children (N = 1004) were between 36 months and the third grade. Results from structural equation models indicated that sustained attention mediated the relation between disorganized attachment and social problems. Planning mediated the relation between disorganized attachment and subsequent thought problems, attention problems, and delinquent behavior. Avoidant, ambivalent, and disorganized attachment directly predicted several behavior problems. Implications for theory and future research are discussed.     

一个关于宏观经济增长质量的一般理论——基于微观产品质量的解释

现有的经济增长质量理论主要是结构调整的宏观思路,其在理论上的局限性是忽视了支撑经济增长质量的微观基础。宏观经济增长质量是经济中具体的微观产品(一二三产业中具体产品和服务)质量的加总,因此必须以微观产品质量为基础构建经济增长质量的一般理论。以微观产品质量为基础的经济增长质量一般理论,在定义、动力机制以及政策含义上与现有理论有显著差异。微观产品质量促进宏观经济增长质量的理论假设,可以在区域层面得到初步的检验。政策建议是宏观经济增长质量的提高必须以微观的产品质量为核心。     

On nonparametric variogram estimation

A critical step for geostatistical prediction is estimation of variogram from the data. One of the popular methods estimating variogram is a smoothed version of classical nonparametric variogram estimator. In this paper we investigate its theoretical and empirical properties to provide useful information for using it. The main results are based on asymptotic theories (i.e., risk and central limit theorem) under nearly infill domain sampling. Simulation is also employed to make our points.     

Social Contexts and Coping Strategies of Foreign Wives in Korea: Using a Conceptual Framework of Social Identity Theory

This study aimed to address the social contexts of Korean society in which diverse social interactions of foreign wives take place and to identify coping strategies to construct positive social identities. Social identities are often reconstructed as a result of dynamic interactions with various situations. Using the conceptual framework of social identity theory, this study attempted to uncover the social contexts that shape foreign wives' social identities. This study, using the qualitative approach, selected nine Filipino and Vietnamese participants who were married to Korean men. The data were collected by in‐depth interviews, a focus group with three Vietnamese participants, field notes, participant observation, and photo documents. In the section on study findings, this study addressed Korean social contexts, in which Korean government has been providing a variety of multicultural policies and services for helping foreign wives successfully adapt to Korea. This study also found various forms of stereotypes and discrimination against foreign wives and presented their discrimination experiences. Diverse ways to cope with such negative experiences are presented in the last section. Given the findings, the researcher suggests that policies and programs should promote foreign wives' integration in Korean society.     

城市停车换乘系统泊位容量的确定方法研究

城市中心区域交通拥挤，车辆行驶速度低，空气污染严重是许多城市共同面临的问题，因此，在城市外围或城市中心区边缘地带设置停车换乘设施截留部分进入城市中心区域的车流已成为交通工作者解决城市中心区交通问题的一个重要手段之一。采用双层规划模型描述了确定城市外围停车换乘系统的停车泊位容量问题，同时设计了该模型的求解算法，并给出了一个简单算例，算例的结果证明了该模型的有效性。     

胡尖山地区长 6、长 4+5 储层有利区预测

摘要：以胡尖山油田长 6、长 4+5 油藏为例，综合应用地质资料、岩芯分析资料、测井资料以及试油资料，开展了长 6和长 4+5 油藏小层划分和对比、单井相分析，建立测井相识别模式，编制小层沉积相平面展布图，进而分析沉积相演化规律；探讨储层砂体展布以及物性分布规律，从而深入认识研究区的储层特征。在此基础上对储层进行流动单元的划分，然后结合试油资料对胡尖山油田长 6、长 4+5 油藏的储层进行有利区域的预测，为油田待开发区域的合理建产开发提供了理论指导     

Nationwide Newspaper Coverage of Same-Sex Marriage: A Community Structure Approach

Using the community structure approach to compare coverage of same-sex marriage in leading U.S. newspapers in 35 major cities nationwide, all articles of 250+ words were sampled from a 5-year span of January 1, 2007, to June 23, 2011, for a total of 577 articles. Articles were coded for “prominence” and “direction,” and then combined into a “Media Vector” score for each newspaper, ranging from .4523 to ?.1067. Initial Pearson correlations revealed three clusters had significant relationships: stakeholder (stakeholder proportions correlating with favorable coverage of stakeholder concerns), buffer (privilege correlating with favorable coverage of human rights issues), and vulnerability (vulnerable populations correlating with coverage favoring their perspectives). The stakeholder cluster includes: (percentage 25–44: r = .506, p = .001; gay market index: r = .432, p = .005; percentage 65+: r = ?.397, p = .009; percentage voting Democratic: r = .335, p = .025; percentage voting Republican: r = ?.330, p = .026). The buffer hypothesis was also confirmed (percentage college educated: r = .465, p = .002; percentage family income of $100,000+: r = .383, p = .012; and percentage professional/technical occupations: r = .300, p = .040). One vulnerability indicator, percentage below the poverty line, was also confirmed (r = ?.297, p = .041). A varimax rotated factor analysis and regression yielded 2 factors accounting for more than 29% of the variance: privilege/gay marketing/political identity, 24%, and Evangelicals, 5%.