Bayesian Inference for a Stochastic Epidemic Model with Uncertain Numbers of Susceptibles of Several Types

A stochastic epidemic model with several kinds of susceptible is used to analyse temporal disease outbreak data from a Bayesian perspective. Prior distributions are used to model uncertainty in the actual numbers of susceptibles initially present. The posterior distribution of the parameters of the model is explored via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The methods are illustrated using two datasets, and the results are compared where possible to results obtained by previous analyses.     

Examining Links Between Sign-Out Reporting During Shift Changeovers and Patient Management Risks

This article reports on a qualitative study that investigated how various risk factors associated with the process of sign-out reporting across shifts in critical care hospital environments could lead to flawed communication and thus to increased risk of poor patient outcomes. The study was performed in two critical care hospital units: the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) and the postanesthesia care unit (PACU). We collected data from observations of eight nurses and four resident physicians in the PICU and four nurses and four resident physicians in the PACU giving sign-out reports during their shift changes. In addition, we conducted semi-structured interviews with a separate sample of medical providers consisting of nurse managers, attending physicians, nurses, and residents from each of these two units. The issues that were addressed in these interviews included how various methods of conducting sign-outs and factors such as personality and experience could impact the effectiveness of communication during sign-out reporting. We also collected data from these medical providers on how failures in communication during sign-out reporting could lead to potentially adverse patient outcomes. The article concludes with the presentation of a modeling framework that demonstrates how the combined influences of risk factors can generate a particularly important type of failure mode in communication and how interventions can be targeted to serve as barriers to such events. A number of recommendations intended for reducing risks associated with the communication of sign-out reports are also presented.     

The spaces and ethics of organic food

Initial assessments of the potential for organic food systems have offered an optimistic interpretation of the progressive political and ethical characteristics involved. This positive gloss has prompted a stream of critique emphasising the need to explore the ambiguities and disconnections inherent therein. In this paper, we consider the case of Riverford Organic Vegetables,¹ arguably the largest supplier of organic vegetables in the UK, and suggest that existing debates assume too much about the “goods” and “rights” of organic food and leave important questions about the spaces and ethics of organic food. We argue that, in the case of Riverford, the space of organic food production and distribution is neither the small, local, counter-cultural farm nor the large, transnational, corporate firm. Rather, simultaneously, the spaces of organic food production and distribution are the national network, the regional distribution system and the local farm. In addition, in the case of Riverford, the ethics of organic food exhibit few grand designs (of environmental sustainability, for example). Rather, the ethics of organic food are best characterised as: ordinary, since they relate to concerns about taste, value for money, care within the family and so on; diverse, since multiple practices steer the production and distribution of organic food; and graspable, in that both vegetables and box have material and symbolic presence for consumers.     

CRACKING THE CORNFIELDS: Recruiting Illicit Stimulant Drug Users in Rural Ohio

This article describes the process of recruiting research subjects for a natural history study of illicit stimulant use in rural Ohio using respondent-driven sampling and ethnographic methods. Participant observation, qualitative interviews, and focus groups were used to establish the project and to evaluate and modify the sampling process as it unfolded. We outline the steps taken in several different rural counties, using ethnographic data to illustrate local differences and obstacles that were faced. The article concludes that respondent-driven sampling is a promising method for identifying and recruiting members of hidden populations in rural areas. However, adequate time must be allotted to establish ethnographic footholds and to reach various networks in separate communities.     

Intergenerational Transnationalism: 1.5 Generation Asian Migrants in New Zealand1

This paper explores some of the issues associated with the nature of contemporary transnationalism and the particular experiences and strategies of a specific cohort of migrants, the 1.5 generation. Based on a study of East Asian migrant adolescents to New Zealand, we argue that the experiences and strategies of this generation differ from those of their parents, the original decision‐makers in the migration process, as well as from the historical experiences of earlier migrants. There is an ambivalence (in‐betweenness) about settlement and attachment that raises some key questions about the assumptions of the immigration literature and of policy/political communities. The paper suggests that the 1.5 generation represents a particular group that deserves more attention in the migration and transnationalism literature.     

Definitions of conflict and the legitimation of resources: The case of environmental risk

This paper examines the social construction of conflict over environmental health and safety issues (i.e., environmental risk). Four explanations for such conflict are commonly offered in the environmental policy literature. We examine the interests served by each. We hypothesize that environmental policy professionals hold definitions of conflict consistent with the values and interests of the organizations for which they work and the professions of which they are members. These definitions enhance the legitimacy of the resources those groups possess in relative abundance. Data from a survey of risk professionals are generally consistent with these hypotheses. We conclude by generalizing beyond environmental conflict to identify ways in which disputes about the nature of a social problem or conflict are often at the same time struggles to determine the value of the resources available to social movements and their opponents.An earlier version of the paper was presented at the 1984 annual meeting of the American Sociological Association. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of George Mason University, George Washington University, or the National Research Council or any of its constituent units.     

Gender differences in the use of high-variance strategies in tournament competition

We report on a series of experiments in which participants first completed a simple game of chance and then competed in a tournament based on a multiple cue probability learning task. The results show that men made riskier choices in the simple game of chance, but women adopted the high-variance strategy more frequently in the tournament. However, after controlling for differences in forecasting skill, we find no significant differences in the rates at which men and women adopted a high-variance strategy. Although altering the difficulty of the forecasting task produces differences in the rate at which participants selected the high-variance strategy, it did not produce a significant difference in the rate at which men and women selected the strategy. Thus, this paper suggests that although women are more risk-averse than men, women are no less likely to adopt a high-variance strategy in a tournament competition.     

Strategy and Human Resource Management Integration in Fast Growth Versus Other Mid-sized Firms1

The nature and integration of strategy and human resource management practices, and the effects of such integration on firm performance were examined in two groups of mid-sized flrms: fast-growth firms and a random sample of similar sized mature firms. The results indicated that the fast-growth firms emphasized fewer human resource activities and experienced a lower degree of strategy-human resource integration than the mature firms. Some evidence was found that the relation between the level of integration and firm performance was moderated by the organization's stage of development.