基于DPN模型的我国出口拉动增加值时滞模型

由于我国加工出口占比较高,学者们提出了区分贸易方式的非竞争型投入产出模型.该模型可以更加准确地测算我国出口对增加值的拉动,但是该模型忽略了出口对增加值拉动的时滞性,这容易产生所有效应都在当年发生的误解.文章基于区分贸易方式的非竞争型投入产出模型构建了各部门出口对增加值拉动的时滞模型.实证结果表明:非加工出口部门的时滞长于加工出口部门的时滞.     

“农转非”、人力资本回报与收入不平等——基于分位数回归分解的方法

随着中国城镇化进程的推进,越来越多的农村户籍人口实现了身份转换,成为制度认可的新市民。本文利用中国综合社会调查（CGSS）数据发现,即使户口状况相同,"新市民"与"老市民"之间依然存在一定的收入差距。分位数回归及其分解的结果显示,"农转非"人群在劳动力市场上仍受到制度性或非制度性歧视,且歧视程度随着分位数的变化呈现倒U型趋势。同时,"农转非"人群内部也存在较大的差异,歧视降低了自致型"农转非"人群相较于城市原居民的禀赋优势,而外致型"农转非"人群则面临人力资本劣势与就业市场歧视的双重压力。     

Affective networks: how WeChat enhances Tencent’s digital business governance

An emerging body of literature has revealed that social media enhance digital business governance to facilitate Internet companies in generating profit throughout regulating the everyday lives of users. However, although existing debates are often contextualized in the West, little attention has been paid to China, where social media are widely used. To fill this knowledge gap, this article investigates the digital business governance practiced by Chinese Internet companies such as Tencent. Specifically, I employ an affective lens to analyze how WeChat, the most popular social media application launched by Tencent, allows this Internet company to influence users for its own business purposes. Chinese college students, which constitute a representative group of young people, were early adopters of WeChat, and they have led the trend of social media use in China. Based on a yearlong netnographic study of Chinese college students, the results reveal that the affective design of WeChat captured their attention and influenced their everyday practices. These results provide insight into how digital business governance operates in the Chinese context, in which authoritarianism and capitalism work closely together.     

Internet Use and Subjective Well-Being in China

Using data from the 2010 China Family Panel Studies, we analyze the association between Internet use and various measures of subjective well-being (SWB) in a sample of 16- to 60-year-old Chinese. Our analysis shows that although intensive Internet use is significantly associated with lower levels of SWB, we hardly observe any associations when the focus is on participation in specific online activities. Nevertheless, SWB depends on the reasons for using the Internet and the extent to which individuals feel that their Internet use is displacing other activities. Our results suggest that, contrary to previous findings, differences in beneficial outcomes (the third level digital divide) do not necessarily arise from individuals’ actual Internet use (the second level digital divide) but rather may result from their subjective perceptions of such usage. Our findings also point to a possible cultural factor that puts Chinese Internet users at psychological risk.     

成年子女与老年父母间代际关系的类型

随着我国社会经济文化的变迁,作为老人晚年生活质量重要评价指标的家庭代际关系正发生着变化;同时,受传统家庭孝文化的影响,我国家庭代际关系的模式可能与西方家庭文化背景下的代际关系模式有所区别。基于此,本研究借用代际团结理论的六大维度,利用中国老年社会追踪调查2012年试调查数据和探索性的潜变量模型,分析成年子女与老年父母间的代际关系类型。通过比较几大类别模型的拟合指标,本研究发现成年子女与老年父母之间的代际关系类型主要分为紧密型、奉养有间型、疏远型三类。其中,接近1/3的代际关系为紧密型,超过一半的样本属于奉养有间型,1/10为疏远型。与以往研究对比发现,紧密型和疏远型分别为我国家庭代际关系的主要模式和稀有模式。但与传统孝文化下的同住奉养代际关系模式相比,奉养有间型的出现表明我国的家庭代际关系模式正在发生着变化,成年子女与老年父母间的代际关系呈现出多样化的趋势。成年子女既要遵循孝敬老人的传统文化,又想保持隐私、独立和个性发展,因而与老人分开居住。相关部门应根据家庭代际关系的模式制定促进紧密型与减少疏远型的公共政策,采取措施弥补奉养有间型模式下家庭照料的不足。     

农业转移人口就近城镇化意愿的地区差异

基于对中西部地区15个省市农业转移人口就近城镇化意愿的问卷调查数据,以社会认同度为研究视角,构建多群组结构方程模型分析中西部地区人口就近城镇化意愿的地区差异及其影响因素.研究结果表明:个人特征差异性对中西部不同地区人口就近城镇化意愿影响显著;中西部不同地区农业转移人口的社会认同度与其就近城镇化意愿显著正相关,且西部地区农业转移人口受到的影响作用更明显.东部地区农业转移人口更注重职业升迁机会、职业技能水平、子女教育状况、工资待遇水平、工作环境、工作时长的满意度.西部地区农业转移人口则更关注其与市民的关系、城市社会关系网络、户籍状况、基本公共服务、城市物价水平及居住条件的改善程度.     

“BOT+TOD”轨道交通投融资模式初探——以佛山市地铁二号线为例

近年来,我国城市轨道交通进入快速发展阶段,城市轨道交通的快速发展需要巨大的资金支撑,传统城市轨道交通投融资方式已经难以为继。本文从城市轨道交通TOD发展模式出发,分析"BOT+TOD"投融资模式的特点及其总体方案,并且以佛山市地铁二号线为例,提出"BOT+TOD"的具体实施路径与操作方法,为市政公用基础设施投融资体制改革、创新轨道交通投融资模式、土地管理制度的改革提供借鉴。通过此创新投融资模式在我国城市轨道交通中的成功运用,改善融资困难局面,促进我国城市轨道交通持续快速发展。     

Univariate and multivariate models of positive and negative networks: Liking,disliking, and bully–victim relationships

Three relations between elementary school children were investigated: networks of general dislike and bullying were related to networks of general like. These were modeled using multivariate cross-sectional (statistical) network models. Exponential random graph models for a sample of 18 classrooms, numbering 393 students, were summarized using meta-analyses. Results showed (balanced) network structures with positive ties between those who were structurally equivalent in the negative network. Moreover, essential structural parameters for the univariate network structure of positive (general like) and negative (general dislike and bullying) tie networks were identified. Different structures emerged in positive and negative networks. The results provide a starting point for further theoretical and (multiplex) empirical research about negative ties and their interplay with positive ties.     

对中国流动人口“梯次流动”的理论思考

针对中国大规模流动人口的流动特点及其流动过程进行理论思考,提出梯次流动概念和流动人口的梯次流动形式、前提条件和原理。将梯次流动定义为在流动迁移的过程中,流动人口凭借自身以及外部的力量不断改善其个人和家庭的福利状况,从而呈现出的一种渐进性的向上流动现象。梯次流动成为一种人口流动中不断优化决策的过程,梯次流动的实现需要一定的社会经济环境,中国近三十年来的改革开放和社会经济发展创造了必要的条件,促成了梯次流动动机的形成和实现的可能。梯次流动的分析视角有助于从微观视角分析个人流动到家庭流动迁移完成的过渡过程,更好地认识中国流动人口现象的特殊性并完善相应的政策与制度。     

当代青年择偶的收入观——郎才女貌悖论

采用2002年中国住户调查数据,本文对当前我国婚姻市场的择偶标准进行了实证研究。在传统社会,高收入的男性和专职于家庭事务的女性被认为是完美的结婚组合(郎才女貌),因此当时的择偶标准体现为收入上的异质性。而本文通过实证研究发现,当前收入水平相当的男女更可能结为夫妻。现在与过去择偶标准的不同导致了郎才女貌悖论的出现。最后,本文阐述了婚介机构的重要性。