Moment‐Independent Sensitivity Analysis Using Copula

In risk assessment, the moment‐independent sensitivity analysis (SA) technique for reducing the model uncertainty has attracted a great deal of attention from analysts and practitioners. It aims at measuring the relative importance of an individual input, or a set of inputs, in determining the uncertainty of model output by looking at the entire distribution range of model output. In this article, along the lines of Plischke et al., we point out that the original moment‐independent SA index (also called delta index) can also be interpreted as the dependence measure between model output and input variables, and introduce another moment‐independent SA index (called extended delta index) based on copula. Then, nonparametric methods for estimating the delta and extended delta indices are proposed. Both methods need only a set of samples to compute all the indices; thus, they conquer the problem of the “curse of dimensionality.” At last, an analytical test example, a risk assessment model, and the levelE model are employed for comparing the delta and the extended delta indices and testing the two calculation methods. Results show that the delta and the extended delta indices produce the same importance ranking in these three test examples. It is also shown that these two proposed calculation methods dramatically reduce the computational burden.     

徐家围子断陷油气运移体系及成藏模式分析

在对含油气组合特征和成藏要素配置关系综合分析基础上，根据断陷盆地发育特征以及天然气藏形成的主控因素，重点分析了地震泵对油气纵向运移的影响，建立了该区油气藏成藏模式，本区发育的油气藏类型主要有构造气藏，岩性气藏和由构造、岩性二者共同控制作用的构造—岩性气藏、地层超覆油气藏以及基岩风化壳油气藏。徐家围子断陷两期构造运动进而形成了正反转构造，为油气提供了良好的构造圈闭及纵向疏导通道。沙河子组共经历了3 次生排烃高峰，第一次由于强烈的构造活动，没有聚集成藏，后两次在其他成藏要素的配合下，最终得以聚集成藏。     

Financial policy innovation for social change: a case study of China's green credit policy

Financial policy impacts on a range of social issues such as poverty alleviation, education, pollution control, etc. Making good use of financial policy and applying innovation to existing financial systems can generate positive outcomes for society. This article is to discuss the case of green credit policy in China. This policy was jointly announced in 2007 by financial and environmental regulators. According to this policy, banks were encouraged to give more loans to environmental friendly companies than to others. Such policy has made great progress, and it became a more formal document entitled ‘Green Credit Guideline’ in 2012. This guideline included a comprehensive definition on green credit and specified several requirements at practical levels. Despite the great success, challenges of implementing such policy still remain. First, information about corporate environmental performance is insufficient; second, market incentives for green credit policy are not high enough; third, most banking staff lack knowledge and capacity to handle environmental affairs. Nevertheless, this case still sheds light on how financial policy innovation drives social changes. The key is to identify the connection between social issues and financial issues, and then to make a business case that creates pressures or incentives for financial institutions. This requires a market where social and environmental cost is appropriately priced and internalized to those who generate it. Ideally, financial policies should help shape such a market so that society can share values created by financial institutions.     

侵权法中的作为义务探究

国外立法例对侵权法中作为义务的规制模式不尽相同,中国台湾地区和大陆地区理论界对作为义务的研究在结合中国司法实践方面略显不足。对于侵权法中作为义务的探究,应当将国外立法例、中国理论界的研究成果与司法实践情况结合起来。中国侵权法中作为义务的设计应当遵循如下思路:无须在一般条款中明确作为义务;合同约定不应成为侵权法中作为义务的来源;不应当规定一般救助义务;作为义务来源应当具有层级性,且该层级性应当以重塑安全保障义务为中心。     

Changes in Family Relationships among Substance Abusing Runaway Adolescents: A Comparison between Family and Individual Therapies

Eligible adolescents (12–17 years old) were recruited from a short‐term crisis shelter for runaway adolescents in a large Midwestern city. Adolescents (N = 179) were randomly assigned to Ecologically‐Based Family Therapy (EBFT, n = 61), the Community Reinforcement Approach (CRA, n = 57), or brief Motivational Enhancement Therapy (MET, n = 61) with the primary focus on substance abuse. A significant increase in perceived family cohesion and a significant reduction in perceived family conflict were found among all treatment conditions from baseline to the 24‐month follow‐up. Adolescents who received EBFT demonstrated more improvement in family cohesion after treatment than those who received CRA or MET, and more reduction in family conflict during treatment than those who received MET.     

Welfare Programme Participation and the Wellbeing of Non-local Rural Migrants in Metropolitan China: A Social Exclusion Perspective

Social Indicators Research - China has seen an unprecedented increase in rural-to-urban migrants in the last three decades, and the extension of welfare programmes to these migrants has been a...     

Educational gradient of health in rural China

The aim of this paper is to examine whether and how rural residents’ educational attainment is associated with their self-rated health in China. Taking advantage of the National Exercise Facility Survey that was collected between December 2015 and March 2016, we find that educational attainment has a significant and positive correlation with self-rated health, net of the effects of age, gender, and geographical region. This correlation is mediated by factors such as perceived importance of exercise and healthy lifestyle. Relatively, people’s cognitive knowledge about health-related information and material resource access fail to play a significant mediating role. The findings highlight the non-material and non-cognitive attributes of educational attainment in shaping the gradient of health in the rural setting of China. Interventions that expand formal education to the mass and optimize teaching contents may offer an effective means to balance the health gradient.     

Tail asymptotic of discounted aggregate claims with compound dependence under risky investment

This paper considers the tail asymptotic of discounted aggregate claims with compound dependence under risky investment. The price of risky investment is modeled by a geometric Lévy process, while claims are modeled by a one-sided linear process whose innovations further obeying a so-called upper tail asymptotic independence. When the innovations are heavy tailed, we derive some uniform asymptotic formulas. The results show that the linear dependence has significant impact on the tail asymptotic of discounted aggregate claims but the upper tail asymptotic independence is negligible.