Airline Safety Improvement Through Experience with Near‐Misses: A Cautionary Tale

In recent years, the U.S. commercial airline industry has achieved unprecedented levels of safety, with the statistical risk associated with U.S. commercial aviation falling to 0.003 fatalities per 100 million passengers. But decades of research on organizational learning show that success often breeds complacency and failure inspires improvement. With accidents as rare events, can the airline industry continue safety advancements? This question is complicated by the complex system in which the industry operates where chance combinations of multiple factors contribute to what are largely probabilistic (rather than deterministic) outcomes. Thus, some apparent successes are realized because of good fortune rather than good processes, and this research intends to bring attention to these events, the near‐misses. The processes that create these near‐misses could pose a threat if multiple contributing factors combine in adverse ways without the intervention of good fortune. Yet, near‐misses (if recognized as such) can, theoretically, offer a mechanism for continuing safety improvements, above and beyond learning gleaned from observable failure. We test whether or not this learning is apparent in the airline industry. Using data from 1990 to 2007, fixed effects Poisson regressions show that airlines learn from accidents (their own and others), and from one category of near‐misses—those where the possible dangers are salient. Unfortunately, airlines do not improve following near‐miss incidents when the focal event has no clear warnings of significant danger. Therefore, while airlines need to and can learn from certain near‐misses, we conclude with recommendations for improving airline learning from all near‐misses.     

Loyalty Programmes: Current Knowledge and Research Directions*

Loyalty programmes (LPs) have increased in number and popularity, but their effects on customer behaviour remain equivocal, due to a lack of understanding of the drivers of LP effectiveness and insufficient generalizable conclusions across prior studies. This paper synthesizes current knowledge pertaining to LPs, reconciles opposing findings by exploring the conditions that mediate and moderate the effects of LP participation on consumer responses, and charts important avenues for research. Overall, we find that LPs are effective in increasing consumer purchase behaviours over time, but the impact differs across consumer segments and markets. Currently, neither firms nor consumers fully benefit from the opportunities that LPs offer. To that end, we identify aspects which help researchers and practitioners increase their understanding of LP benefits and pitfalls. Through this study, companies that already have LPs will be able to improve their performance, and those that are about to introduce one will better understand the implications of the LP launch.     

The probability integral for a bivariate generalization of the non-central t

An expression for the probability integral of a bivariate generalization of the non-central t distribution is derived. This expression is then used to construct tables for various combinations of parameter values     

Overwhelming Casualties: Medical Ethics in a Time of Terror

Codes of ethics and ethics guidelines define standards of professional conduct, and ways to prioritize or balance ethical principles when these appear to be in conflict. In 1991 an international and interdisciplinary group of scholars met at the University of Toronto to discuss these problems in a Workshop on Ethical Considerations in Scholarship and Science. A document, “The Toronto Resolution”; (TTR), was developed, providing twelve principles for incorporation into scientific and scholarly codes, with the object of ensuring that professionals in science recognize the potential consequences of their work in the broader social context. To examine the extent to which existing codes are consonant with The Toronto Resolution's 12 principles, a content analysis was conducted on the codes of 21 Ontario‐based scientific and scholarly organizations. Criteria used in the content analysis were standardized and determined to be reliable. Only a weak correspondence was found between the contents of the codes of the scientific and scholarly organizations surveyed here and the principles set out in TTR. In particular, guidelines on specific social issues such as environmental effects or conflict resolution are scarcely mentioned at all. This study encourages consideration of The Toronto Resolution by the ethics committees of scientific and scholarly associations, as codes are revised or as new interpretations of principles in the codes evolve.     

Totalitarianism in America? Robert Nisbet on the “Wilson War State” and Beyond

This article examines Robert Nisbet’s claim that the first totalitarian experiment of the twentieth century occurred not in the Soviet Union or in Nazi Germany, but in the United States during the First World War. Totalitarianism appeared in the form of mass propaganda, surveillance and repression. It was accompanied by a messianic desire of Woodrow Wilson and his team to transform America into a “national community.” By 1920, American totalitarianism was effectively at an end but, claimed Nisbet, it left a legacy of centralization that, over successive Democratic and Republican administrations, has stripped the Republic’s citizens of social authority and independence; the political trumped the social. Nisbet’s depiction of American totalitarianism is contrasted with Hannah Arendt’s argument that totalitarianism, thus far in history, is restricted to Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union under Stalin.