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João Delgado Simon Pollard Kerry Pearn Emma L. Snary Edgar Black George Prpich Phil Longhurst 《Risk analysis》2017,37(9):1768-1782
This article details a systemic analysis of the controls in place and possible interventions available to further reduce the risk of a foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in the United Kingdom. Using a research‐based network analysis tool, we identify vulnerabilities within the multibarrier control system and their corresponding critical control points (CCPs). CCPs represent opportunities for active intervention that produce the greatest improvement to United Kingdom's resilience to future FMD outbreaks. Using an adapted ‘features, events, and processes’ (FEPs) methodology and network analysis, our results suggest that movements of animals and goods associated with legal activities significantly influence the system's behavior due to their higher frequency and ability to combine and create scenarios of exposure similar in origin to the U.K. FMD outbreaks of 1967/8 and 2001. The systemic risk assessment highlights areas outside of disease control that are relevant to disease spread. Further, it proves to be a powerful tool for demonstrating the need for implementing disease controls that have not previously been part of the system. 相似文献
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Phil Woodward 《Significance》2006,3(1):30-32
Poker used to be the card game of choice for hard men late at night in smoke-filled rooms. Now online poker is bidding for respectability and a site on the home computer. Phil Woodward gives us the straight dope. 相似文献
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Previous research has reported strong consumer perception that genetically modified (GM) food crops may lead to adverse outcomes in a number of different areas. This is despite the widespread promulgation of the potential benefits and opportunities ascribed to the same technology by many scientists and other experts. A computer-based information gathering and evaluation task was completed by 198 adults to assess the extent to which their initial focus on the dangers or opportunities of genetic modification, or both, could be ascribed to the manner in which they gathered information on the topic (heuristically vs. systematically). Results did not confirm the hypothesis that initial focus (risks, benefits, or both) predicted ongoing information gathering and evaluation behavior. Moreover, also contrary to prediction, most participants primarily used systematic strategies when deriving their initial position, regardless of that opinion. Participants found it difficult to achieve a balanced perspective on GM food crop, even though balanced argument, as measured by order of story selection and time spent reading, was preferred as the source of information. Perceived importance is probably the most influential variable determining information gathering about issues or events to which a level of risk is attached. 相似文献
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Phil Jones 《Pharmaceutical statistics》2002,1(1):59-60
In this paper several methods are presented for managing analytical constraints in support of formulation optimization and drug delivery studies. These methods rely on the sequential analytical analysis of pharmaceutical technology studies. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Phil Zuckerman 《Sociology Compass》2009,3(6):949-971
What do we currently know about atheists and secular people? In what ways are atheism and secularity correlated with positive societal outcomes? This article offers a thorough presentation and discussion of the latest social scientific research concerning the identities, values, and behaviors of people who don’t believe in God or are non‐religious, and addresses the ways in which atheism and secularity are positively correlated with societal well‐being. 相似文献
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Rural Community and Rural Resilience: What is important to farmers in keeping their country towns alive? 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Phil McManus Jim Walmsley Neil Argent Scott Baum Lisa Bourke John Martin Bill Pritchard Tony Sorensen 《Journal of Rural Studies》2012
Many studies have highlighted the phenomenon of rural decline in parts of the developed world, summarised as a loss in agricultural employment leading to a decline in the number and size of rural settlements. This study of small towns in part of Australia’s inland rural “heartland” employs the concepts of interactional rural community of place and rural resilience to identify how farmers perceive their interactions with their local town. This study suggests that robust levels of ongoing engagement between farmers and town communities are important in maintaining rural populations and services along with both a strong local economy and environment. Face-to-face interviews with 115 farmers in two rural regions of New South Wales, Australia, highlight the importance of the local economy and jobs, the quality of the local environment and a strong sense of belonging, in contributing to a strong sense of local community and potential for resilience. 相似文献
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We consider fitting Emax models to the primary endpoint for a parallel group dose–response clinical trial. Such models can be difficult to fit using Maximum Likelihood if the data give little information about the maximum possible response. Consequently, we consider alternative models that can be derived as limiting cases, which can usually be fitted. Furthermore we propose two model selection procedures for choosing between the different models. These model selection procedures are compared with two model selection procedures which have previously been used. In a simulation study we find that the model selection procedure that performs best depends on the underlying true situation. One of the new model selection procedures gives what may be regarded as the most robust of the procedures. 相似文献