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21.
Jean‐Baptiste Denis 《Risk analysis》2011,31(7):1141-1155
Stakeholders making decisions in public health and world trade need improved estimations of the burden‐of‐illness of foodborne infectious diseases. In this article, we propose a Bayesian meta‐analysis or more precisely a Bayesian evidence synthesis to assess the burden‐of‐illness of campylobacteriosis in France. Using this case study, we investigate campylobacteriosis prevalence, as well as the probabilities of different events that guide the disease pathway, by (i) employing a Bayesian approach on French and foreign human studies (from active surveillance systems, laboratory surveys, physician surveys, epidemiological surveys, and so on) through the chain of events that occur during an episode of illness and (ii) including expert knowledge about this chain of events. We split the target population using an exhaustive and exclusive partition based on health status and the level of disease investigation. We assume an approximate multinomial model over this population partition. Thereby, each observed data set related to the partition brings information on the parameters of the multinomial model, improving burden‐of‐illness parameter estimates that can be deduced from the parameters of the basic multinomial model. This multinomial model serves as a core model to perform a Bayesian evidence synthesis. Expert knowledge is introduced by way of pseudo‐data. The result is a global estimation of the burden‐of‐illness parameters with their accompanying uncertainty. 相似文献
22.
Ratelle CF Vallerand RJ Mageau GA Rousseau FL Provencher P 《Journal of gambling studies / co-sponsored by the National Council on Problem Gambling and Institute for the Study of Gambling and Commercial Gaming》2004,20(2):105-119
Vallerand et al. (2003) have proposed that individuals can have two distinct types of passion toward an activity. Harmonious passion, an internal force leading one to choose to engage in the activity, is proposed to be associated with positive consequences. Obsessive passion, an internal pressure forcing one to engage in an activity, is posited to be associated with negative consequences. The present study sought to determine the role of the two types of passion in various cognitive and affective states associated with dependence and problems with gambling. Participants (n = 412) were recruited at the Montréal Casino and given a questionnaire measuring passion toward gambling, as well as consequences associated with dependence and problem gambling. Results showed that obsessive passion for gambling predicted poorer vitality and concentration in daily tasks, as well as increased rumination, anxiety, negative mood, guilt, and problem gambling. These relations were not found for harmonious passion for gambling. Results are discussed in light of the motivational approach to passion (Vallerand et al., 2003). 相似文献
23.
A new class of Bayesian estimators for a proportion in multistage binomial designs is considered. Priors belong to the beta-J distribution family, which is derived from the Fisher information associated with the design. The transposition of the beta parameters of the Haldane and the uniform priors in fixed binomial experiments into the beta-J distribution yields bias-corrected versions of these priors in multistage designs. We show that the estimator of the posterior mean based on the corrected Haldane prior and the estimator of the posterior mode based on the corrected uniform prior have good frequentist properties. An easy-to-use approximation of the estimator of the posterior mode is provided. The new Bayesian estimators are compared to Whitehead's and the uniformly minimum variance estimators through several multistage designs. Last, the bias of the estimator of the posterior mode is derived for a particular case. 相似文献
24.
Clemens Breisinger Xinshen Diao Marie‐Helen Collion Pierre Rondot 《Development policy review : the journal of the Overseas Development Institute》2011,29(2):155-184
Yemen is an oil‐exporting and food‐importing country with the highest levels of poverty in the Middle East and North Africa. The impacts of the triple crisis are likely to further complicate pre‐existing conditions of conflict, oil depletion and governance failure. Using a dynamic CGE model, this article finds that oil‐driven growth in 2008 dominated the negative growth impacts of the food crisis, but that growth was not pro‐poor. The financial crisis of 2009 slowed growth sharply and raised the poverty rate to 42.8%, up from 34.8% in 2005/6. Poverty continues to be higher in rural areas, where almost half the population live in poverty. 相似文献
25.
Harriet Namata Ziv Shkedy Christel Faes Marc Aerts Geert Molenberghs Heide Theeten Pierre Van Damme Philippe Beutels 《Journal of applied statistics》2007,34(8):923-939
Based on sero-prevalence data of rubella, mumps in the UK and varicella in Belgium, we show how the force of infection, the age-specific rate at which susceptible individuals contract infection, can be estimated using generalized linear mixed models (McCulloch & Searle, 2001). Modelling the dependency of the force of infection on age by penalized splines, which involve fixed and random effects, allows us to use generalized linear mixed models techniques to estimate both the cumulative probability of being infected before a given age and the force of infection. Moreover, these models permit an automatic selection of the smoothing parameter. The smoothness of the estimated force of infection can be influenced by the number of knots and the degree of the penalized spline used. To determine these, a different number of knots and different degrees are used and the results are compared to establish this sensitivity. Simulations with a different number of knots and polynomial spline bases of different degrees suggest - for estimating the force of infection from serological data - the use of a quadratic penalized spline based on about 10 knots. 相似文献
26.
27.
Fabien Gagnon Mathieu Courchesne Benoît Lévesque Pierre Ayotte Jean‐Marc Leclerc Jean‐Claude Belles‐Isles Claude Prévost Jean‐Claude Dessau 《Risk analysis》2008,28(5):1221-1230
The present study was aimed at assessing the health consequences of the presence of radon in Quebec homes and the possible impact of various screening programs on lung cancer mortality. Lung cancer risk due to this radioactive gas was estimated according to the cancer risk model developed by the Sixth Committee on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations. Objective data on residential radon exposure, population mobility, and tobacco use in the study population were integrated into a Monte‐Carlo‐type model. Participation rates to radon screening programs were estimated from published data. According to the model used, approximately 10% of deaths due to lung cancer are attributable to residential radon exposure on a yearly basis in Quebec. In the long term, the promotion of a universal screening program would prevent less than one death/year on a province‐wide scale (0.8 case; IC 99%: –3.6 to 5.2 cases/year), for an overall reduction of 0.19% in radon‐related mortality. Reductions in mortality due to radon by (1) the implementation of a targeted screening program in the region with the highest concentrations, (2) the promotion of screening on a local basis with financial support, or (3) the realization of systematic investigations in primary and secondary schools would increase to 1%, 14%, and 16.4%, respectively, in the each of the populations targeted by these scenarios. Other than the battle against tobacco use, radon screening in public buildings thus currently appears as the most promising screening policy for reducing radon‐related lung cancer. 相似文献
28.
29.
The social space and the genesis of groups 总被引:19,自引:0,他引:19
Pierre Bourdieu 《Theory and Society》1985,14(6):723-744
30.
Pierre Filion 《Planning Practice and Research》2015,30(2):202-221
A major problem confronting planning is the gap between transformative proposals and enduring urban development trends. The paper interprets interviews with 62 planners involved in a sustainable urban development strategy in a large region focussed on Toronto, Canada. Surveyed planners were asked about the obstacles they encounter when attempting to modify prevailing urban development. Mentioned obstacles are consistent with expectations arising from three major perspectives on inertia: institutionalism, political economy and path dependence. Interviews also highlight the role of planners' practical knowledge in identifying and interpreting obstacles, and the existence of a consensus among respondents over sustainable urban development. 相似文献