UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE AND CULTURAL TRANSMISSION: THEORY AND APPLICATION TO EUROPEAN UNEMPLOYMENT

This paper emphasizes the two‐way causality between the provision of unemployment insurance and the cultural transmission of civicness. The returns to being uncivic are increasing in the generosity of unemployment insurance; but this generosity is decreasing in the number of uncivic individuals. In this context, I determine the evolution of preferences across generations and show that cultural heterogeneity is sustained over the long‐run. The dynamics of cultural transmission can generate a long lag between the introduction of unemployment insurance and an increase in people's willingness to live off government‐provided benefits. Hence, it offers an explanation to the ‘European unemployment puzzle’ due to the coexistence of generous unemployment insurance and low unemployment in the 1950s and 1960s.     

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Assessment of the Thyroid Cancer Risk Related to Chernobyl Fallout in Eastern France

The increase in the thyroid cancer incidence in France observed over the last 20 years has raised public concern about its association with the 1986 nuclear power plant accident at Chernobyl. At the request of French authorities, a first study sought to quantify the possible risk of thyroid cancer associated with the Chernobyl fallout in France. This study suffered from two limitations. The first involved the lack of knowledge of spontaneous thyroid cancer incidence rates (in the absence of exposure), which was especially necessary to take their trends into account for projections over time; the second was the failure to consider the uncertainties. The aim of this article is to enhance the initial thyroid cancer risk assessment for the period 1991-2007 in the area of France most exposed to the fallout (i.e., eastern France) and thereby mitigate these limitations. We consider the changes over time in the incidence of spontaneous thyroid cancer and conduct both uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The number of spontaneous thyroid cancers was estimated from French cancer registries on the basis of two scenarios: one with a constant incidence, the other using the trend observed. Thyroid doses were estimated from all available data about contamination in France from Chernobyl fallout. Results from a 1995 pooled analysis published by Ron et al. were used to determine the dose-response relation. Depending on the scenario, the number of spontaneous thyroid cancer cases ranges from 894 (90% CI: 869-920) to 1,716 (90% CI: 1,691-1,741). The number of excess thyroid cancer cases predicted ranges from 5 (90% UI: 1-15) to 63 (90% UI: 12-180). All of the assumptions underlying the thyroid cancer risk assessment are discussed.     

Autoportrait des footballeurs de metier

Professional football players are well known public figures and in the French case always considered as working class people. An enquiry with questionnaires showed that this does not reflect the reality of the French players in the past as well as in the present. French professional football players consider themselves as artists and their social origins are quite diverse. They use particular strategies in their careers in order to improve their social conditions. Overall, it can be said that the social standing of footballers has increased during the last decade.     

原子簇的合成方法、性质表征与结构

利用给电子有机和无机配位体的交换反应和金属卤化物与羰基金属阴离子的复分解反应,合成异核原子簇具有反应条件温和易于控制,收率较高的特点。本文描述Fe_3(CO)_9(C_2H_2)_3等11个原子簇的合成方法,配位状态与簇核的结构。     

Interval Estimation of the Stress-Strength Reliability with Independent Normal Random Variables

This article develops a procedure to obtain highly accurate confidence interval estimates for the stress-strength reliability R = P(X > Y) where X and Y are data from independent normal distributions of unknown means and variances. Our method is based on third-order likelihood analysis and is compared to the conventional first-order likelihood ratio procedure as well as the approximate methods of Reiser and Guttman (1986 Reiser, B., Guttman, I. (1986). Statistical inference for Pr(Y < X): the normal case. Technometrics 28: 253257.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Guo and Krishnamoorthy (2004 Guo, H., Krishnamoorthy, K. (2004). New approximate inferential methods for the reliability parameter in a stress-strength model: the normal case. Commun. Statist. Theor. Meth. 33: 17151731.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The use of our proposed method is illustrated by an empirical example and its superior accuracy in terms of coverage probability and error rate are examined through Monte Carlo simulation studies.