The demographics of inequality

This paper presents a survey of recent literature on the effects of demographic variables on economic inequality. First, a number of conceptual and methodological questions are raised and discussed. They pertain to what is meant by inequality, what the range of demographic variables is, and how variable and endogenous are the demographic variables most widely used.The paper then turns to a review of empirical works on the distributive incidence of the following demographic variables: baby boomers entering the job market, aging population, variable fertility and mortality rates, internal and external migrations, divorce and widowhood, and finally donations and bequests. It appears that a lot of caution is needed when assessing the incidence of any demographic variable changing the size of the population because in this case standard inequality measures yield conflicting signals.Presidental address delivered at the second meeting of the European Society for Population Economics, June 23, 1988, Mannheim, FRG. The author is extremely grateful to R. Easterlin, D. Kessler, T. Smeeding, l. Tunali, R. von Weizsäcker, two referees, and the participants in the 1988 Hagen meeting of the Verein für Social politik, Ausschuß Mr Bevölkerungsökonomie, for their comments.     

Inheritance and wealth composition

This paper studies the effects of variables pertaining to alternative bequest motives on the composition of households' portofolio. It relies on a 1986 survey on the assets structure of 5600 French households. The main conclusion is that bequest motives indeed influence the composition of households' wealth. However, available data does not allow one to sort out the influence of specific models of inheritance.We thank John Ermisch, Jim Lindsey and two referees for their comments and suggestions. This research benefitted from the financial support of the SPES program.     

A comparison of poverty in seven European countries and regions using subjective and relative measures

This paper presents comparative results on poverty in seven countries and regions of the European Community: Belgium, The Netherlands, Luxembourg, Lorraine, Ireland, Catalonia and Greece. The data are obtained from comparable socio-economic surveys in each country. Subjective as well as relative poverty lines are used. The results indicate that the subjective poverty lines are plausible in a comparative context, although the levels of the subjective standards are rather generous. The estimated equivalence scales are much flatter than the one recommended by the OECD. The extent of poverty is much greater in the peripheral EC-countries than in the central ones. Though similar factors are found to be associated with poverty in all countries, there are also important differences in the characteristics of the poor across countries. The impact of social security transfers on poverty appears to be much smaller in the southern countries Greece and Catalonia, than in the Benelux and Lorraine.     

Child custody issues and co‐occurrence of intimate partner violence and child maltreatment: controversies and points of agreement amongst practitioners

The situation of families undergoing separation in a context of co‐occurrence of intimate partner violence (IPV) and child maltreatment raises certain issues related to child custody. The results presented in this paper were collected and analysed within the framework of a qualitative study aiming to identify the principal points of agreement and the main controversies amongst practitioners in several different types of organizations. Focus groups were held with a total of 43 practitioners from six different settings concerned with child custody in cases of co‐occurrence of IPV and child maltreatment. Although they agreed on the importance of ensuring the safety of victims of violence, their views diverged on three points: (1) the importance of preserving the father–child relationship; (2) collaboration between voluntary organizations and semi‐voluntary or legal agencies; and (3) consideration of cultural differences.     

Estimation of the Force of Infection from Current Status Data Using Generalized Linear Mixed Models

Based on sero-prevalence data of rubella, mumps in the UK and varicella in Belgium, we show how the force of infection, the age-specific rate at which susceptible individuals contract infection, can be estimated using generalized linear mixed models (McCulloch & Searle, 2001). Modelling the dependency of the force of infection on age by penalized splines, which involve fixed and random effects, allows us to use generalized linear mixed models techniques to estimate both the cumulative probability of being infected before a given age and the force of infection. Moreover, these models permit an automatic selection of the smoothing parameter. The smoothness of the estimated force of infection can be influenced by the number of knots and the degree of the penalized spline used. To determine these, a different number of knots and different degrees are used and the results are compared to establish this sensitivity. Simulations with a different number of knots and polynomial spline bases of different degrees suggest - for estimating the force of infection from serological data - the use of a quadratic penalized spline based on about 10 knots.     

A Bayesian Time Series Model of Multiple Structural Changes in Level,Trend, and Variance

We investigate whether seasonal-adjustment procedures are, at least approximately, linear data transformations. This question was initially addressed by Young and is important with respect to many issues including estimation of regression models with seasonally adjusted data. We focus on the X-11 program and rely on simulation evidence, involving linear unobserved component autoregressive integrated moving average models. We define a set of properties for the adequacy of a linear approximation to a seasonal-adjustment filter. These properties are examined through statistical tests. Next, we study the effect of X-11 seasonal adjustment on regression statistics assessing the statistical significance of the relationship between economic variables. Several empirical results involving economic data are also reported.     

On the Choice of Functional Forms: Summary of a Monte Carlo Experiment

The use of flexible functional forms is a standard practice in applied econometrics. Many flexible forms have been proposed. In this study, we investigate the behavior of three of them—the translog, the symmetric McFadden, and the symmetric generalized Barnett. Based on Monte Carlo experiments, we assess the ability of these forms to test theoretical properties and to measure technological characteristics.     

Risk Assessment for Hospital-Acquired Diseases: A Risk-Theory Approach

We introduce a new approach to hospital-acquired disease risk assessment from public health databases. In a spirit similar to actuarial risk theory, we define an adjustment coefficient that can quantify the risk associated with a hospital department, allowing comparisons of similar departments. The adjustment coefficient characterizes the tail of the distribution of the total patient length of stay in a department before the first disease event occurs. We show that this coefficient is the solution of a Lundberg-like equation, and we provide a nonparametric estimation procedure for this measure, based on a Cramér-Lundberg approximation for the tail of the distribution. Using simulations, we provide evidence of the robustness of the approximation to various individual risk models. In addition, we illustrate the relevance of this approach by evaluating the risk associated with a standard patient safety indicator in 20 hospitals of southeastern France.