Incomplete Preferences Under Uncertainty: Indecisiveness in Beliefs versus Tastes

We investigate the classical Anscombe–Aumann model of decision‐making under uncertainty without the completeness axiom. We distinguish between the dual traits of “indecisiveness in beliefs” and “indecisiveness in tastes.” The former is captured by the Knightian uncertainty model, the latter by the single‐prior expected multi‐utility model. We characterize axiomatically the latter model. Then we show that, under independence and continuity, these two models can be jointly characterized by means of a partial completeness property.     

沈从文故事中对农人目光的文本化(上)

沈从文笔下的乡下人总是用一种独特标准来观察和批判城市以及城里人。这是异乡情调一种典型形式,即“乡下人”对于城市所形成的印象。沈从文将城市读者的“他者”构成叙事话语,所表现出来的始终是一种社会学意义的距离,同时也是一种民族学意义上的,或者性别和世代上的区分。从这种观察中得到的乡村与城市之间的对立通过反语和讽刺反映出来。作者拒绝叙述者无所不知的权威,叙述者的声音始终是不张扬的,而且他的写作是以语言的克制为特征的。从这样的叙事实践中所得到的结果,正是话语与话语对象之间的一种距离,同样也是作家与他所创造的世界之间的协调一致。     

A Bayesian nonparametric estimator based on left censored data

Summary This paper introduces a Bayesian nonparametric estimator for an unknown distribution function based on left censored observations. Hjort (1990)/Lo (1993) introduced Bayesian nonparametric estimators derived from beta/beta-neutral processes which allow for right censoring. These processes are taken as priors from the class ofneutral to the right processes (Doksum, 1974). The Kaplan-Meier nonparametric product limit estimator can be obtained from these Bayesian nonparametric estimators in the limiting case of a vague prior. The present paper introduces what can be seen as the correspondingleft beta/beta-neutral process prior which allow for left censoring. The Bayesian nonparametyric estimator is obtained as in the corresponding product limit estimator based on left censored data.     

Exploring theoretical frameworks for the analysis of fertility fluctuations

Analysis of scientific debate on the determinants of procreational choice leads the author to identify four main decisional logics: primary adaptation, economic rationality, norm internalization and identity reinforcement. Revisiting the classics supports the hypothesis of a bipolarity of strategical principles governing fluctuating reproductive behaviour. In particular, dialectics between the two endogenous strategies — economic rationality and identity rationality — suggests the use of the Volterra-Kostitsin predator-prey model as a metaphor to account for fertility waves.     

A note on zenga concentration index

Summary The Zenga index, , is shown to be a concentration index, in the sense that, ifX andY are non negative random variables with 0<E(X), E(Y)<+∞, then (X)⩾ (Y) whenever the Lorenz curves satisfyL _x(p)≤L _y(p) for all p. Research partially supported by: M.U.R.S.T. 40% ?Inferenza statistica: basi probabilistiche e sviluppi metodologici?.     

Formative Indicators and Effects of a Causal Model for Household Human Capital with Application

Dagum and Slottje (2000) estimated household human capital (HC) as a latent variable (LV) and proposed its monetary estimation by means of an actuarial approach. This paper introduces an improved method for the estimation of household HC as an LV by means of formative and reflective indicators in agreement with the accepted economic definition of HC. The monetary value of HC is used in a recursive causal model to obtain short- and long-term multipliers that measure the direct and total effects of the variables that determine household HC. The new method is applied to estimate US household HC for year 2004.     

Performance measurement frameworks in public and non-profit sectors

In the last decade much attention has been devoted to developing performance measurement systems (PMS), which could encompass both financial and non-financial measures. Many frameworks have been conceived in order to allow companies to better evaluate their own performance by means of collected data, but few attempts have been made to provide public and non-profit organizations with PMS devoted explicitly for their needs. The aims of this paper are to review the frameworks currently developed and implemented in public and non-profit organizations and to identify the requirements of a framework, which can be applied in this context.     

A proposal for handling ordinal categorical variables in co-inertia analysis

This paper is about the problem of the treatment of ordinal qualitative variables in co-inertia analysis. In the literature, there are different proposals based on the application of known statistical techniques to quantify ordinal variables. Here we propose to use a new procedure for the coding considering the empirical distributions of the variables involved in the analysis. We present an application to a real dataset, comparing the results obtained with the different kinds of quantification.     

Nonparametric survival regression using the beta-Stacy process

A novel class of hierarchical nonparametric Bayesian survival regression models for time-to-event data with uninformative right censoring is introduced. The survival curve is modeled as a random function whose prior distribution is defined using the beta-Stacy (BS) process. The prior mean of each survival probability and its prior variance are linked to a standard parametric survival regression model. This nonparametric survival regression can thus be anchored to any reference parametric form, such as a proportional hazards or an accelerated failure time model, allowing substantial departures of the predictive survival probabilities when the reference model is not supported by the data. Also, under this formulation the predictive survival probabilities will be close to the empirical survival distribution near the mode of the reference model and they will be shrunken towards its probability density in the tails of the empirical distribution.