A Bayesian Non-parametric Approach to Survival Analysis Using Polya Trees

This paper presents a Bayesian non-parametric approach to survival analysis based on arbitrarily right censored data. The analysis is based on posterior predictive probabilities using a Polya tree prior distribution on the space of probability measures on [0, ∞). In particular we show that the estimate generalizes the classical Kaplanndash;Meier non-parametric estimator, which is obtained in the limiting case as the weight of prior information tends to zero.     

Reinforced urns and the subdistribution beta‐Stacy process prior for competing risks analysis

In this paper, we introduce the subdistribution beta‐Stacy process, a novel Bayesian nonparametric process prior for subdistribution functions useful for the analysis of competing risks data. In particular, we (i) characterize this process from a predictive perspective by means of an urn model with reinforcement, (ii) show that it is conjugate with respect to right‐censored data, and (iii) highlight its relations with other prior processes for competing risks data. Additionally, we consider the subdistribution beta‐Stacy process prior in a nonparametric regression model for competing risks data, which, contrary to most others available in the literature, is not based on the proportional hazards assumption.     

Two Strong Families in Southern Europe? Re-Examining the Geography of Kinship Regimes Stemming from the Reciprocity Mechanisms Between Generations

David Reher??s hypothesis of a specific pattern of ??strong family?? characterizing the south of Europe is currently widely shared. Is a further specification possible, one that applies uniquely to the Mediterranean family? The supporting evidence from a large corpus of in-depth interviews of young people aged 30?C34 and living in the north and south of Italy seems to confirm the existence of a dual identity for the strong family, located in two distinct belts within southern Europe divided along a north?Csouth gradient. Pointers to the historical and anthropological roots of this cleavage between the two southern family patterns are sought in two major texts, Ibn Kaldun??s Mouqaddima and Mauss?? ??Essay on the Gift.??     

Analyzing Customer Requirements to Select a Suitable Service Configuration Both for Users and for Company Provider

Social Indicators Research - The analysis of Customer Satisfaction is an important tool in planning business activities. It allows firms to identify which features and attributes are important for...     

A class of neutral to the right priors induced by superposition of beta processes

A random distribution function on the positive real line which belongs to the class of neutral to the right priors is defined. It corresponds to the superposition of independent beta processes at the cumulative hazard level. The definition is constructive and starts with a discrete time process with random probability masses obtained from suitably defined products of independent beta random variables. The continuous time version is derived as the corresponding infinitesimal weak limit and is described in terms of completely random measures. It takes the interpretation of the survival distribution resulting from independent competing failure times. We discuss prior specification and illustrate posterior inference on a real data example.     

Activity Participation and Well-Being Among European Adults Aged 65 years and Older

Increasing evidence suggests that different patterns of activity participation confer several positive well-being outcomes through the later years of life. The aim of the present study is to examine the likelihood of higher well-being linked with a socially engaged lifestyle with a view to extending prior research. Data on a nationally representative sample of adults aged 65 and older from eleven European countries (n = 7025) was drawn from the first Wave of the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE, 2004/5). Socially and productively oriented activities were administered as salient aspects of activity participation and were rated on frequency of involvement. Well-being was defined by the clustering of six indicators including life satisfaction, quality of life, self-rated health, psychological distress, chronic diseases and Body Mass Index (BMI). The effect of activity participation on the clustering of well-being indicators was estimated according to complex samples ordinal regression models. The overall pattern was that of a significantly increased likelihood for frequently active participants to present multiple presence of positive well-being outcomes (p < 0.05). This held true not only at the individual level but also across most SHARE countries. Although the findings of the current analysis cannot identify the direction of causality of the observed effects, they still lend some support to the reasonable conjecture that old-age activity engagement matters for individuals’ wellbeing and testify to the suggestion that public health and social care interventions should consider the respective potential well-being gains and therefore foster the facilitation of activities and attachments.     

Occupational mobility and wealth evolution in a model of educational investment with credit market imperfections

We study the implications of individual heterogeneity for occupational mobility and the evolution of wealth distribution. These issues are investigated within a model of occupational choice with credit market imperfections and local non convexities in educational investment. Whether and under which conditions private wealth accumulation leads to the elimination of the effects of credit market imperfections is also studied. In the cases where steady states feature wealth and occupational mobility we show that private wealth accumulation cannot eliminate the effects of credit market imperfections if, at any point in time, investment correlates with wealth within households in the skilled occupation. Persistence of wealth constraints in the economy with occupational mobility motivates our exploration of policies. Compared to the case of homogeneous ability, we show that heterogeneity requires more persistent policies to achieve similar results in terms of enhanced investment opportunities and income per capita. It is also shown that the scope for policies is larger under heterogeneity: policies can be effective in environments where they would fail in a world of homogeneous abilities.     

Governing Local Area Development through Dynamic Performance Management

Public Organization Review - Several attempts of local areas development fail due to a predominant attention to the internal performance of public organizations. The perspective of local area...