Mixed model for analyzing geographic variability in mortality rates

"A mixed model is proposed for the analysis of geographic variability in mortality rates. In addition to demographic parameters and random geographic parameters, the model includes additional random-effects parameters to adjust for extra-Poisson variability. The model uses a gamma-Poisson distribution with a random scale parameter having an inverse gamma prior. An empirical Bayes approach is used to estimate relative risks for geographic regions and annual rates for demographic groups within each region. Lung cancer in Missouri is used to motivate and illustrate the procedure."     

On a conjecture of Kakosyan,Klebanov and Melamed

Suppose X₁, X₂, ..., X_m is a random sample of size m from a population with probability density function f(x), x>0 and let X_1,m<...m,m be the corresponding order statistics. We assume m as an integer valued random variable with P(m=k)=p(1?p)^k?1, k=1, 2, ... and 0 and n X_1,n for fixed n characterizes the exponential distribution. In this paper we prove that under the assumption of monotone hazard rate the identical distribution of and (n?r+1) (X_r,n?X_r?1,n) for some fixed r and n with 1≤r≤n, n≥2, X_0,n=0, characterizes the exponential distribution. Under the assumption of monotone hazard rate the conjecture of Kakosyan, Klebanov and Melamed follows from the above result with r=1.     

Fertility decline in Bangladesh: an emerging family planning success story

Bangladesh has a population of 115 million people, and the economic growth rate of 3.7% during the 1980s was undermined by rapid population growth. The annual population growth rate was 3% in the 1960s and early 1970s, 2.5% between 1981-91 decreasing to 2.3% in 1991. The average of number of children is 4.6/woman compared with 7 in the 1960s. Infant mortality dropped from 150/1000 births in 1976 to 118/1000 in 1991. Life expectancy rose from 47 to 54 years. The 1991 Contraceptive Prevalence Survey showed that 39.9% of married women under 50 use contraceptives in 1991 vs. 18.6% in 1981. The use of modern methods increased from 10.9% in 1981 to 31.2% in 1991, while traditional methods rose from 7.7% to 8.7%. Sterilization was most prevalent in 1981. 29,000 female family planning (FP) workers were aggressively engaged in dispensing FP services in 1990. The Social Marketing Company sells pills, condoms, and oral rehydration salts through 130,000 retail outlets. The 1989 Contraceptive Prevalence Survey showed that 40% of pill and condom users obtained them from this network, and 95.4% of women knew about 4 methods of contraception. In 1990 there were 120 private organizations providing contraceptive services. Some of the components of the government FP program include field worker distribution door-to-door of injectable contraceptives (50% injectable usage rate in the Matlab project); recordkeeping activities; a satellite clinic network with access to contraceptive services; and decentralization through the Upazila (subdistrict) approach. The logistics system of FP has improved the warehousing, transportation, and management information system. Foreign aid (mainly USAID) financing of contraceptives helped avert 14.4 million births between 1974-90. The increase of contraceptive prevalence to 50% by 1997 would avert another 21.9 million births during 1991-96 (replacement fertility requires 70% prevalence.     

The timing of maternity in the Netherlands

In this paper the timing of maternity is estimated by a hazard model. The novel aspect of this paper is that it is shown that wages and total household labor income have a significant effect on the timing of maternity. Both the wage rate of the woman and the wage rate of the husband have a negative effect on the timing of maternity. Total household labor income increases the probability of having a child at an earlier age. Calculated elasticities show that the timing of maternity is relatively elastic with respect to wage rates. However, the elasticities of the decision whether or not to have children altogether are much smaller. Women working in the labor market delay the timing of maternity compared to non-participating women. Attending school has the same effect. Until the age of 28 the maternity hazard increases with age, after that it decreases.We benefited from comments on previous drafts by Siv Gustafsson, Joop Hartog, Peter Kee, Herriette Maassen van den Brink, Eddie Mekkelholt, Joop Odink, Hessel Oosterbeek, Hans van Ophem, Gusta Renes, Andre Voskamp, two anonymous referees, and the Managing Editor of this Journal. This paper is a revised version of a paper presented at the third annual meeting of the European Society for Population Economics, Paris, June 1989. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Elective single mothers and their children: The missing fathers

Elective single mothers are adult, unmarried women who intentionally become mothers. This study utilized longitudinal data about 17 Caucasian, elective single mothers and their children to identify fathers' roles in these families, and to understand children's views of their fathers. These single mothers and their children resided for the first six years of the children's lives in father-absent households. By age six, most of the children had ghost fathers, whom they had never met or knew little about. The data suggest that the father often becomes a family secret, and that children may blame themselves for their fathers' absence.     

Sucker bet or sure thing: A critical analysis of sports lotteries

A paradox currently exists regarding legal sports gambling in North America: various forms are flourishing in Nevada, Oregon, and several Canadian provinces, while at the same time the United States Congress is conducting hearings on two bills that would prohibit any new state-sponsored sports gambling initiatives. This study examines the issue of why some jurisdictions are enthusiastic about legal sports gambling while others strongly resist the concept. In reviewing these divergent viewpoints, a case study of the newfledged Canadian Sport Select gambling format is presented. This example is used to highly the perils and payoffs of a typical state-sponsored sports gambling scheme, with a view toward broadening our understanding of how they work and how they might be fairer to the public.