Population changes and the cost of health care for the elderly in Poland

"The author...has attempted to measure the effects of population changes upon the costs of health care [in Poland] by applying a simulation model. In this model the total cost of health care is a function of the per capita cost of health care by age, sex, and place of residence (urban, rural) and population structure.... The paper includes...the results concerning population 60 years of age and over." Data are from several official health-related surveys carried out in 1989.     

Strategic planning for the board

Although the planning operation is regarded by some observers as unrealistic in conditions of rapid change and increasing competition, the discipline of strategic thinking and the need for strategic leadership continue to be of vital importance. The author examines the purpose of the Board of Directors and its role in the management of strategy.     

Migration from Latin American countries to the United States: the economic,social and reproductive lives of Hispanic female immigrants, 1980

The authors describe the socioeconomic characteristics and fertility patterns of female immigrants from Latin America to the United States, with a focus on reasons for fertility differentials. "Using the one per cent public use sample from the 1970 and 1980 United States census, we first compare changes in socio economic characteristics from 1970 to 1980, and then examine the determinants of fertility of female immigrants to the United States, aged 16-49, from four Latin American areas or countries of birth.... The findings...suggest that there are direct effects of demographic, assimilation, and socioeconomic variables beyond those mediated by the variables in each of these sets. Further, regardless of the model, the effect of the clusters of demographic characteristics is most apparent. Age categories and marital status are the strongest indexed determinants of immigrant fertility.... The effect of education and employment is strong. Among assimilation variables, duration of residence and language ability are significant determinants of Hispanic immigrant fertility." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

THE SHORT-TERM EFFECT OF ELECTION POLLS ON FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES: THE 1988 CANCDIAN FEDERAL ELECTION

Polls do not simply measure public opinion; they also providevital information that the public can use to form opinions andto make decisions. Using multiple regression analysis, the authorsfound that published polls had a powerful impact on the valueof the Canadian dollar during the 1988 Canadian federal election.This appears to have been due to the unprecedented importanceof economic issues in the federal campaign, the distinctivepositions taken by the major political parties with respectto the U.S.-Canadian Free Trade Agreement, and to the proliferationof "horse-race" polls in the media. These results have implicationsfor understanding the behavior of other elite groups, such asfinancial contributors and volunteer campaign workers, who mayalso use published horse-race polls to handicap election outcomes.     

Recent trends in the process of stratification

Using the 14 annual cross-sections from the General Social Survey, we specify a "basic model" of attainment and describe the year-by-year fluctuations in its parameters. The results are partially consistent with theories describing the gradual growth of universalistic patterns of stratification and mobility. Under a linear model of educational achievement, we find that the direct effects of race are weakening and the returns to class-based advantages are declining in tandem. The contours of the socioeconomic "gender gap" are also changing in important ways, with the male intercept declining at a rapid pace and the female term registering small and insignificant year-by-year gains. At the same time, the returns to experience and schooling are increasing for men, whereas the corresponding returns for women have remained stable over the 15-year period. This pattern of interaction effects implies that the size of the gender gap varies over time and across different population groups.     

Refugee research in Africa: problems and possibilities

The author discusses the magnitude of the refugee problem in selected countries of Africa, with a focus on the "conceptual, methodological and practical problems faced by refugee researchers in Africa." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

Audience effects on solitary faces during imagery: Displaying to the people in your head

Subjects imagined situations in which they reported enjoying themselves either alone or with others. Electromyographic (EMG) activity was recorded bilaterally from regions overlying thezygomatic major muscles responsible for smiling. Controlling for equal rated happiness in the two conditions, subjects showed more smiling in high-sociality than low-sociality imagery. In confirming imaginary audience effects during imagery, these data corroborate hypotheses that solitary facial displays are mediated by the presence of imaginary interactants, and suggest caution in employing them as measures of felt emotion.Avery Gilbert and Amy Jaffey had compelling insights throughout the course of study. We thank Paul Ekman, Carroll Izard, and Paul Rozin for extensive comments on earlier drafts. We also thank Bernard Apfelbaum, Jon Baron, Janet Bavelas, John Cacioppo, Linda Camras, Dean Delis, Rob DeRubeis, Alan Fiske, Stephen Fowler, Greg McHugo, Harriet Oster, David Premack, W. John Smith, and David Williams for their valuable comments and suggestions.     

Measurement of Hispanic ethnicity in the U.S. census: an evaluation based on latent-class analysis

"Two models, the U.S. census model and the latent-class model, are compared in their application to evaluating measurements of ethnicity. Although the census approach assumes that the response categories of a questionnaire item correspond to groups in the population, the latent-class approach seeks to assess whether any set of response categories can represent observed ethnic heterogeneity. Data collected using the 1990 census Hispanic-origin question and other instruments for measuring ethnicity suggest that the latent-class approach is superior whenever the response categories are not known to be valid. In particular, using the latent-class model, this article rejects the census model's assumption of a single dimension of meaning underlying responses to the Hispanic-origin question."